peter Zeihan 2020
- Thread starter Cherico
- Start date
Typhonis
Well-known member
FTFY
Peter talks about Intel doing stuff in Ohio:
Here's the video clip to post whenever everyone starts spouting green energy BS:
Here's the video clip to post whenever everyone starts spouting green energy BS:
Peter talks about the Russian Navy's geographic problems:
The Panama Canal might be going out of operation due to low water levels, which'll fuck up a lot of trade:
The Panama Canal might be going out of operation due to low water levels, which'll fuck up a lot of trade:
PeaceMaker 03
Well-known member
Or you know come up with a ~trillion dollars or so and build a bigger canal.
America doesn't have the will to build a fucking high speed rail line much less do that.
Peter updates us on Israel vs Gaza, aka everyone backing away from Hamas:
I ran into a video which I think put its finger on one of the major problems with Peter and his predictions: he doesn't really understand the US in any real way.
For instance, much of his predictions of the future rests on the US "pulling out" of the rest of the world in some substantial way. When there is virtually no reason to expect that to happen, and his own data points to many reasons the US has immense reasons to keep involved.
The US has no real reason to pull back especially on the Navy unless pushed back. But if the US is pushed out, say by a built up Chinese Navy, then you have a new hegemon rising, not the current one just "walking away" and leaving this power vacuum.
The US empire willingly just pulling back doesn't make sense, and there's very little push for that from anywhere that matters. But, it seems his entire prediction of the future rests on this extremely unlikely thing occurring!
For instance, much of his predictions of the future rests on the US "pulling out" of the rest of the world in some substantial way. When there is virtually no reason to expect that to happen, and his own data points to many reasons the US has immense reasons to keep involved.
The US has no real reason to pull back especially on the Navy unless pushed back. But if the US is pushed out, say by a built up Chinese Navy, then you have a new hegemon rising, not the current one just "walking away" and leaving this power vacuum.
The US empire willingly just pulling back doesn't make sense, and there's very little push for that from anywhere that matters. But, it seems his entire prediction of the future rests on this extremely unlikely thing occurring!
stephen the barbarian
Well-known member
Poe
Well-known member
I don't think he's wrong America will pull back, I think he's hilariously wrong thinking it will pull back to near total isolationism and become a blatantly imperial power towards south america again and that he's dead wrong on the timescale. Also, his analysis of nations and their interests is good but his future predictions are hilariously dumb. Germany, China, Russia etc "ceasing to exist" is little more than an American nationalists fever dream.
Poe
Well-known member
None of these countries are on the verge of collapse. Their populations will likely shrink if nothing else is done, but none of them are going to explode and cease to exist. Germany is also not "a foreign country" it is still mostly ethnic Germans and will be for the foreseeable future.
Germany is in the air, Russia is I think in the worst trouble just from communism basically destroying everything that made it a functional country.
China....china will continue to exist but the Chi coms fucked up so much stuff and they concentrated so much power into one person that its pretty much envitable that it will go into civil war. The good news for them is that every one else is some flavor of fucked and will most likely be too busy dealing with their internal issues to interfer. Which means once the CCPs leadership gets flushed china can rebuild itself as something functional.
I don't know what religion will become big there but I bet on one becoming real big there soon.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Christianity has been massively growing in China, like hundreds of millions of converts, over the last four decades.
Bigking321
Well-known member
Christianity thrives under persecution. It wouldn't surprise me.
its one of many possibilities.
Fact is Mao's 4 olds campain along with communism supression of every aspect of culture not controlled by the state means that china's cuture is currently hallow. And something has to fill that void.
Christianity is possible but buddism is too, a modified confusionism, folk religion, and many other things. Islam I put low on the list just because its aggression has pissed off too many average chinese people and there isn't enough unity to actually conquer china by the sword.
But something has to fill the void, and the new leadership is going to want something to do that and help create moral foundations for a working society.
Poe
Well-known member
All of these countries will have trying times ahead no doubt, it's the ceasing to exist and only that I take issue with. That's what I mean, Peter is mostly right about the general trend of things but exaggerates/is hyperbolic about the future and it makes him sound ignorant due to the domain he works in (geopolitical analysis.)