peter Zeihan 2020

[Marduk]

This is why I don't find a famine, especially on the scale implied, particularly likely. They will starve Africa first, and have the resources to do it. There's apparently 400,000 chinese in South Africa already, and depending how their placed can work to prioritize export vs domestic consumption. And of course there are a lot of Chinese in Canada, about 5% of the population at 1.8 million. In crisis, the pre-existing populations and connections makes surging more as necesary comparatively easy.

Yup, though that also has international politics and logistics as a variable.

And in the case of political upeaval, well, middle income means you can afford to leave, and there's extensive overseas chinese populations to facilitate it. If dirt poor vietnamese had roughly 1 million boat people flee, the number of Chinese who can leave would be much higher.

In case of political upheaval, that's precisely what's up in the air. If that's how it worked, North Korea would be populated solely by the Kim family and friends. If the government tightens the screws hard, as it would in case of political upheaval, only the very brave and very well connected will be leaving. This is precisely the sort of government that would ban people from leaving during a famine it caused. It did so once already after all.

 

[Cherico]

Russia is going to win with numbers it might not work this time.

 

[Marduk]

Russia is going to win with numbers it might not work this time.

Consider the masses of conscripts China and NK threw at the Korean War.
Millions...
That was when both sides used WW2 vintage gear or barely better, and they were probably better prepared than the Russian ones are now.
Yet that barely got them a stalemate.

 

[f1onagher]

Russia is going to win with numbers it might not work this time.

A month ago I would have argued that Russia could pull it out, but that was out of distrust of Western propaganda. At this point its clear that Russia will be lucky to hang onto Crimea and will only pull that off by threatening nukes convincingly enough.

 

[History Learner]

For another example of why I'm so skeptical of Zeihan's abilities, look no further then the recent NS pipeline sabotage:





So after establishing the Russians lack the capacity to do this because of an event 20 years ago, Zeihan promptly flips to the dominant narrative without zero self correction or explanation of how they did what he previously claimed they could not do:



Beyond the simple fact Zeihan doesn't know the well documented fact Russian has submarines in the Baltic, the switch to The Dominant Narrative means he is, by default, going back on what he said about Russian capabilities. Either they have them and thus could achieve what he now says, or they don't and they couldn't possibly do it then. So if he's that off base about the Russian Navy, what else is he wrong about? Also leads to interesting questions about NATO, given the Russians, according to Zeihan, were able to do this and get away with it despite an American naval group in the area and it being near Danish territorial waters. What exactly happens to American CBGs, in the event of war, with Russian submarines being this sneaky?

 

[Cherico]

My money is that he's saying what he needs to say to avoid being cancelled.

I'm also of the opinion that in all likelyhood it was either america or poland, because both of us have a motive to hit it.

 

[History Learner]

My money is that he's saying what he needs to say to avoid being cancelled.

I'm also of the opinion that in all likelyhood it was either america or poland, because both of us have a motive to hit it.

I agree, but expand that notion into a wider framework of how he is willing to make compromises on his predictions/worldview in terms of financial interest. We know for a fact he has gotten paid by the DoD before for things, for example. Even outside that, on the small details, I'm really shocked he didn't know the Baltic Fleet has submarines; it was reported on extensively back in the Summer when the Russians rotated two in, sent one out and were testing their newest additions.

 

[Cherico]

so it looks like this upcoming battle is going to be really important and is seriously worth watching.

 

[Ixian]

For another example of why I'm so skeptical of Zeihan's abilities, look no further then the recent NS pipeline sabotage:





So after establishing the Russians lack the capacity to do this because of an event 20 years ago, Zeihan promptly flips to the dominant narrative without zero self correction or explanation of how they did what he previously claimed they could not do:



Beyond the simple fact Zeihan doesn't know the well documented fact Russian has submarines in the Baltic, the switch to The Dominant Narrative means he is, by default, going back on what he said about Russian capabilities. Either they have them and thus could achieve what he now says, or they don't and they couldn't possibly do it then. So if he's that off base about the Russian Navy, what else is he wrong about? Also leads to interesting questions about NATO, given the Russians, according to Zeihan, were able to do this and get away with it despite an American naval group in the area and it being near Danish territorial waters. What exactly happens to American CBGs, in the event of war, with Russian submarines being this sneaky?

As a former US Navy submarine SONAR operator with some experience tracking Russian submarines, they really aren't very sneaky so.... yeah.

I mean the Russians are pretty good at using the natural environment to hide in comparison with Americans, but the differences in tech means that it's fairly easy to spot and classify a Russian submarine. Surface warships can have a more difficult time, but I can't imagine there wasn't at least one US submarine in the area that could have spotted a Russian approach. Not to mention any fixed position SONAR systems that probably exist in the Baltic sea, I can't say that with certainty as I was never deployed in that region (I was a Pacific sailor), but such an important and strategic area must have had something.

Edit: Also that guy is dead wrong, the Russians aren't restricted to "extremely shallow waters" in their subsea capabilities. They may not be able to recover a sub that sinks in deep water, but they can absolutely travel there.

 

[Cherico]

the bridge hit was important.



Victory for Ukraine is now slightly more likely but still difficult but even if Russia wins this war is now an official gut punch.

 

[Cherico]

China is getting fucked on technology.

Not feeling a whole lot of sympathy.

 

[Cherico]

the germans are having a bad time.

 

[Urabrask Revealed]

You just know the globohomo is trying to push the Morgenthau Plan onto the German people, whetever out of hate, spite, or a proof of concept is irrelevant.

 

[f1onagher]

I'd admire their sacrifice a little more if they hadn't blown off the Americans and the Poles warning them about this eventuality for years.

 

[LordsFire]

It's good when someone admits they've screwed up, and takes their punishment.

It's better not to screw up in the first place, especially when you're repeatedly warned about the consequences.

 

[Cherico]

I'd admire their sacrifice a little more if they hadn't blown off the Americans and the Poles warning them about this eventuality for years.

decades actually, and its just common sense never rely on the russians for anything

 

[Urabrask Revealed]

decades actually, and its just common sense never rely on the russians for anything

Oh sorry, where were we supposed to get oil from then? The USA? With their prices?
90 dollares per barrel in comparision to the 40 dollars per barrel of Russia?

 

[bullethead]

Oh sorry, where were we supposed to get oil from then? The USA? With their prices?
90 dollares per barrel in comparision to the 40 dollars per barrel of Russia?

Go nuclear, like the rest of the world should've done decades ago.

Then we could all point and laugh at the Middle East and Russia trying to pull shit when oil has way less value.

 

[Cherico]

Oh sorry, where were we supposed to get oil from then? The USA? With their prices?
90 dollares per barrel in comparision to the 40 dollars per barrel of Russia?

For your electric needs you should have gone nuclear. This isn't an insult America should have gone nuclear too. the French were for the first time in a long time correct on an issue.

Once that was done you guys should have hooked yourselves into north sea oil and Frances neo colonial empire for your energy needs.

 

[Marduk]

You just know the globohomo is trying to push the Morgenthau Plan onto the German people, whetever out of hate, spite, or a proof of concept is irrelevant.

They can only wish to have such power. It's because Germans voted for this for years. Germany of all places has great engineering skillbase and stable tectonics. There is no reason for Germany to not have more nuclear power than France and Japan combined. But instead it's doing to opposite. Because they just had to vote for greens and their doormats from CDU and SPD.