Kayser-I-Rum taken seriously? Ottomans form Third Rome?

Sārthākā

Well-known member
Mehmed the Conqueror was the only real Sultan to take the position as Caesar seriously other than Abdulmejid II who used the title to placate the Greeks within Anatolia and Thrace in the 1840s. He tried to conquer Italy within his goals of creating an Islamic Roman Empire, however the Albanian Revolt stopped this plans, along with the invasion of Anatolia by the remnants of the Beyliks. For the sake of the thread, let us assume that the Albanians do not revolt and the beyliks decide not to risk war with the Ottomans allowing Mehmed to concentrate all his resources in taking Malta, Sicily and Naples, and succeeds. He marches to Rome, encircling the city and the Pope affirms his title as Caesar.

What would be the influence of the Ottomans being recognized as the legitimate heirs of Byzantium be in European history?

Now before the inevitable answer of CRUSADE! comes forward, i am just going to state plainly that France, Florence, and the HRE were gleeful at the prospect of Southern Italy falling under Ottoman dominance, as it would stop the HRE/Franco-Papal schisms full stop and put the Papacy firmly under the hand of the French and put Northern Italy which was a Papal influence zone firmly under the hand of the Austrians. So a crusade, is very unlikely and not plausible. I need plausible answers here.
 
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Ottomans become the most powerful player in the Europe, which means the like of HRE, France and Spain would be willing to at least temporarily put aside their quarrels as Ottomans would now directly threaten their spheres of influence.
 
Ottomans become the most powerful player in the Europe, which means the like of HRE, France and Spain would be willing to at least temporarily put aside their quarrels as Ottomans would now directly threaten their spheres of influence.
Indeed.And do not forget about Moscow - after 1511 they considered themselves third Rome.In OTL they practically do not fought Ottomans till 1690,but now they must do that.
And,as long as Ottomans would remain superpower,german princes would not start supporting Luder.
 
Mehmed the Conqueror was the only real Sultan to take the position as Caesar seriously other than Abdulmejid II who used the title to placate the Greeks within Anatolia and Thrace in the 1840s. He tried to conquer Italy within his goals of creating an Islamic Roman Empire, however the Albanian Revolt stopped this plans, along with the invasion of Anatolia by the remnants of the Beyliks. For the sake of the thread, let us assume that the Albanians do not revolt and the beyliks decide not to risk war with the Ottomans allowing Mehmed to concentrate all his resources in taking Malta, Sicily and Naples, and succeeds. He marches to Rome, encircling the city and the Pope affirms his title as Caesar.

What would be the influence of the Ottomans being recognized as the legitimate heirs of Byzantium be in European history?

Now before the inevitable answer of CRUSADE! comes forward, i am just going to state plainly that France, Florence, and the HRE were gleeful at the prospect of Southern Italy falling under Ottoman dominance, as it would stop the HRE/Franco-Papal schisms full stop and put the Papacy firmly under the hand of the French and put Northern Italy which was a Papal influence zone firmly under the hand of the Austrians. So a crusade, is very unlikely and not plausible. I need plausible answers here.


I'm not sure that they would be that successful. There were a hell of a lot of fortified locations in Italy so they could get bogged down in grinding sieges which is likely to cost them a lot, if only through disease and also invite other factions to play while their busy in Italy.

If they did and a Pope acknowledged them as some sort of successor to the Roman empire I could see him very quickly being renounced by much of the church. Doubly so if the Ottomans sought to keep control of Rome which I suspect he might. Despite what you say I think this could mean a revived crusader element regardless of the actual believes of assorted major princes due to widespread outrage at such events or possibly some earlier kind of reformation/revolt against the established church.

For the last millennium the bishop of Rome has claimed to be the leader of the church and hence supreme head of all Christians as well as often assuming political power. For the current Pope to submit to an hated heretic who's religion has caused immense suffering to the faithful - possibly nearly as much as internal Christian bickering ;) - would seriously dent his prestige and that of the office.
 
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Yeah Moscow doing it was annoying enough to the Catholics but OTOH, while the relationship between Catholicism and Orthodoxy is complicated, they had enough commonality in doctrines and whatnot that dealings between the two still happened, it was just limited by distance.

If Mehmet goes full retard though? This is where the entire Christian world comes for his ass. Spain is *just* finishing up the Reconquista, and a resurgent Muslim world that's clearly bent on trying to conquering Europe again is going to get hammered. They barely averted that at the Battle of Tours, and now this idiot is trying to restart it?

Well, I hope he likes getting dogpiled because at this point *everyone* is going to be gunning for him.
 
See I am taking my info from Otranto 1480. Il sultano, la strage, la conquista it's an Italian history book about the event.

Queen Anne of Bourbon wrote to Peter II of Bourbon telling him that France would not do anything against the Turkish Invasion of Italy calling it 'greatly in line with French interests and Turkish success is required for French goals in northern Italy and the Papacy to be met.' They even sent a few ships and small contingent of mercenaries into papal territories during the invasion to distract the Papacy in aid of the Turks. Similarly Habsburg Austria was not interested. Frederick III stated 'While a great moral and religious defeat it would be the Habsburg Monarchy will not pursue any action in Italy due to commitments in Burgundy against France' in his letter to future Charles V of the HRE.

the only one interested in a renewed crusade were Hungary and Spain. But at the time Spain was too far to do anything real about it being still warped in the aftermath of the Castilian war of succession to the point that Cardinal Mendoza stated that the castillan navy could do little but watch. Hungary alone would be pummeled by the Turks.


Which is why I am highly sceptical of the claims that the Europeans would go crusading again. Historical evidence points towards the fact that the great powers were content to ignore and int he case of the French, aid the ottomans.
 
See I am taking my info from Otranto 1480. Il sultano, la strage, la conquista it's an Italian history book about the event.

Queen Anne of Bourbon wrote to Peter II of Bourbon telling him that France would not do anything against the Turkish Invasion of Italy calling it 'greatly in line with French interests and Turkish success is required for French goals in northern Italy and the Papacy to be met.' They even sent a few ships and small contingent of mercenaries into papal territories during the invasion to distract the Papacy in aid of the Turks. Similarly Habsburg Austria was not interested. Frederick III stated 'While a great moral and religious defeat it would be the Habsburg Monarchy will not pursue any action in Italy due to commitments in Burgundy against France' in his letter to future Charles V of the HRE.

the only one interested in a renewed crusade were Hungary and Spain. But at the time Spain was too far to do anything real about it being still warped in the aftermath of the Castilian war of succession to the point that Cardinal Mendoza stated that the castillan navy could do little but watch. Hungary alone would be pummeled by the Turks.


Which is why I am highly sceptical of the claims that the Europeans would go crusading again. Historical evidence points towards the fact that the great powers were content to ignore and int he case of the French, aid the ottomans.

Sārthākā

I take your point but while the princes might do that and France was often aiding the Turks because their main opponents were the Hapsburgs - albeit the latter weren't the power they were shortly to be. However there is the question of what might be the public response if the Turks were able to overrun both S Italy and then occupy Rome. Don't forget that western Europe is building up to the reformation and there is growing dissatisfaction with the current establishment so there is likely to be a reaction of some sort.

If the Ottomans are committing a sizeable force to S Italy and especially probably if the sultan is there in person then I could see other people trying to take opportunity in his absence. Plus at the time wasn't Hungary pretty much at its medieval height with the Black Army still powerful so they wouldn't have been a walkover.

Steve
 
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Sārthākā

I take your point but while the princes might do that and France was often aiding the Turks because their main opponents were the Hapsburgs - albeit the latter weren't the power they were shortly to be. However there is the question of what might be the public response if the Turks were able to overrun both S Italy and then occupy Rome. Don't forget that western Europe is building up to the reformation and there is growing dissatisfaction with the current establishment so there is likely to be a reaction of some sort.

If the Ottomans are committing a sizeable force to S Italy and especially probably if the sultan is there in person then I could see other people trying to take opportunity in his absence. Plus at the time wasn't Hungary pretty much at its medieval height with the Black Army still powerful so they wouldn't have been a walkover.

Steve
No not really. Even when facing a massive Albanian revolt fighting in Otranto and fighting the Anatolian Beyliks alongside rebellious vassals like Wallachia and Moldova all at once the Hungarians couldn't do more than seize a single fortress. The monetary issues of the Black Army was already rearing its head in the 70s.

I agree that a reaction from Europe would arise but I disagree that a crusade would be forthcoming. The French were aiding the Ottomans, and the Habsburgs were taking a meh attitude and the Spanish couldn't do anything militarily. The English and northern Europeans wouldn't care at all. One must also remember that the to Ottoman title of curators and custodians of Eastern Rome was recognized by the Europeans and the Holy Roman Emperor and the Ottoman Kayser were considered to be the only emperor's of Europe until the 1640s when the Habsburgs forced the Ottomans to declare that the Habsburgs's rights as King of the Romans were higher. I doubt that in the situation of the Ottomans taking Rome a compromise is not found most probably with the Pope keeping his temporal authority like the patriarchates. Mehmed was known to be a kind sultan to Christians and Jews too to the point that the Jewish denizens of Southern Italy flocked to him and his banner. I think most probably partition of Italy with French and Habsburg spheres of influence in the north and the ottomans gaining the south and Latium is the most likely scenario.
 
Personally, I think the best chance for this is by avoiding the 1405 defeat at Ankara by Timur. That in of itself was a disaster for Ottoman fortunes but it also kicked off a succession crisis that was even worse for damaging the Ottoman state as well as triggering internal political reforms that in the long run were negative; i.e. new Sultans either killed everyone off or their siblings were allowed to live as dolts who spent their time whoring, which had very bad effects whenever a Sultan died without heir and one of these said dolts took the throne as the replacement.

Outside of that, however, the strategic situation of the early 1400s was probably the best the Ottomans were ever going to see; at this time the Catholic Church is still in a schism which means there will not be any unified response in the form of a Crusade. Even if there was a united Church at this time, the Europeans are in no shape to oppose such an Ottoman offensive. In Italy itself, Milan is in the process of collapse while Venice is still recovering from the twin blows of the Plague as well as the Battle of Chioggia. Aragon, meanwhile, has been dissociated from Sicily by Martin I. France and England meanwhile are still locked in the Hundred Years War while the HRE, Hungary and Poland are having the Hussites focus their attention.

Given this opening, the Ottomans could easily secure the Balkans and Italy to their domains. The opportunity also extends elsewhere in this time too, it should be noted, as Persia doesn't really exist as a united region since the Ilkhanate is gone. The Safavids are but a distant glimmer, so the region remains largely Sunni, removing the historical Sunni-Shia antagonism that would be a check on any Ottoman expansion into the region. Entirely possible that, with the PoD specified, you could Justinian borders in the Med while conquering Iran and Mesopotamia in the East. From where, expansion into East Africa and the Indies would not only be possible, but probable.

Pax Turania, anyone?
 
Outside of the above thoughts, I certainly think it was in the realm of possibility for the Ottomans to conquer Italy even after 1453, the issue being though that the resources required would probably prevent them from advancing as far as they did in the Middle East and elsewhere. However, more interestingly, it might result in the long run in a Christian Ottoman Empire rather an an Islamic "Kayser-i-Rum":

But this is an increasingly challenged - some would even say anachronistic - theory. More recent works on the early Ottomans draw a quite different picture. From Heath W. Lowry's The Nature of the Early Ottoman State (which the most important recent synthesis of Ottoman studies, Osman's Dream, cites extensively):

There is an ironic twist to this interpretation; it would suggest that the real secret of Ottoman success may have stemmed from the failure of its early rulers to adhere to the traditional Islamic concept of the gaza [holy war]. Osman and Orhan, rather than attempting to pressure the local Christians of Bithynia into accepting Islam or subjugating them to the yoke of a tolerated cizye (poll tax) paying community, simply left the issue of religion open. One joined their banner as either a Christian or a Muslim and made their mark on the basis of ability. When in 1973, Halil Inalcık described the fourteenth-century Ottomans as “a true ‘Frontier Empire,’ a cosmopolitan state, treating all creeds and races as one,” he highlighted what appears to be the real secret of Ottoman success in its formative period.

Viewed through the lens of surviving fourteenth- and early-fifteenth century sources, the emerging Ottoman polity was one in which culture and ideology were (from the outset) the vehicle through which the administrative apparatus of earlier Islamic dynasties was passed on to the new entity. Islam was the religion of the rulers from the time of Osman forward. What was different about Osman and his immediate successors was the fact that they in no way sought to impose their own faith upon those who, attracted by the prospect of booty and slaves, flocked to their banner. On the contrary, in the first one-hundred-plus years of the state, one’s religion in no way determined whether or not one could join their endeavor and/or serve as a member of its ruling elite. Muslims (many of whom were converts) and Christians rose to positions of prominence on the basis of performance not belief.

Some arguments made by Lowry:

Gaza meant raid, not holy war: Fourteenth- and fifteenth-century sources, from Ottoman poets themselves to Italian merchants, state that the Turks considered gaza (Arabic for "holy war") virtually the same thing as akin (Turkish for "raid"). This suggests that the Ottomans referred to their looting activities, whose primary motivation was plunder and not zeal, as gaza.

Indeed, as late as 1484, the Sublime Porte's edict calling for a so-called "holy war" (gaza) in Moldavia makes an appeal not to any sort of religious warriors, but to those "desiring booty and plunder." This is despite the sultan at the time being so devoutly Muslim that he was literally nicknamed "Bayezid the Saint." Nor were those participating in gaza/akin mostly or even majority Muslims; the 1484 edict uses the term yoldash ("comrade," a religiously neutral term) when calling for volunteers, and in one campaign against the White Sheep Turkomans in the 1470s, 85% of the "raiders" (akinci) mobilized in one Balkan Province were Christians.

The early Ottoman government included many Greeks and Christians: In 1326, the Ottomans captured their first major city, Prusa (Bursa). Interestingly, the earliest Ottoman chronicles credit the Ottoman conquest of Bursa to a certain "Michael the Beardless," who was not only Greek -- as is obvious from the name -- but had been an Orthodox Christian until just a few years before. Michael would go on to found one of the three most powerful families in the early Ottoman empire, the Mihaloglus.

Another of the three powerful dynasties was the Evrenosoglus, founded by the esteemed ghazi Evrenos. Here's the catch; Evrenos appears to be a Greek name. One historian even suggests that Evrenos was the Byzantine governor of Prusa/Bursa who defected when the Ottomans conquered his city, although Lowry rejects this. Evrenos's father, Isa (Turkish for Jesus), was nicknamed "the Frank," suggesting that he might have been a Spanish mercenary (Byzantine chronicles state that hundreds of Catalan mercenaries joined Osman I in 1305).

Besides the domain of soldiers, a 1385 endowment deed features 39 Ottoman bureaucrats. Six of those have names identifiable as those of converts, while one is said to be the son of Koskos, a Christian police superintendent. Or when a Byzantine historian visited Pegae, a Roman city rcently captured by the Ottomans, he found that the Ottomans had appointed a Greek Christian named Mavrozoumis as the military governor there. The Ecumenical Patriarch's archives suggest that there were Christian judges in Ottoman land in 1340.

Even more striking is the fact that from the years 1453 to 1516, for 31 years the Grand Viziers in the Porte were Muslim converts from Byzantine, Serbian, and Bosnian nobility, who often retained ties to their Christian hometowns and families. On a lower level, many of the pronoia of Byzantium underwent a relatively smooth transition to becoming Ottoman timariots. In Albania in 1431, a full sixth of the timariots were Christians and another third were first-generation converts.

So Lowry concludes that there was an "established process where bona fide Christians were performing administrative functions in the emerging Ottoman state apparatus."

The early Ottomans did not follow traditional Islamic ways of dealing with Peoples of the Book: Among our first Ottoman chroniclers opens his discussion of Osman I with this sentence:

Upon taking his father’s place, [Osman] began to get along well with those unbelievers who were his close neighbors.

This chronicler tells us that when Osman I conquered Harmankaya (the hometown of Michael the Beardless, incidentally) the Ottomans "took no slaves. This they did in order to bind the local people to them." Osman I explained these actions by saying that "they [the Greeks] are our neighbors. When we first came to this area they treated us well. Now it is fitting that we show them respect." This does not quite match the common image of the Muslim holy warrior. This could be explained by realpolitik, but more striking is a German janissary's report in 1397 about Bursa, where Ottoman hospices were open to all, Christians and Jews as well as Muslims. A French visitor to Bursa in 1432 even claims that wine was distributed in these charitable kitchens. In more orthodox Islamic societies - including the mature Ottoman state - each religious group had largely separate charitable institutions.

From an administrative viewpoint, a 1490 document states that the island of Limnos - a former Venetian possession that commands the entrance to the Dardanelles and has a valuable type of clay - should be defended primarily by the local Greek Christians in the exact same way they had under Byzantine and Venetian rule. There was no Islamic bureaucracy to be found on the island at all, only a tiny janissary garrison composed of two dozen Greek Muslims most of who were married to local Christian girls. Again, not really a sign of ghazis overtaking local Christian society.
Finally, one might discuss the example of a preacher in Bursa in the late 14th century who, from the pulpit of the mosque, proclaimed that Jesus was just as great a prophet as Muhamamad. When an Arab cleric pointed out that this seemed heretical, the local congregants rejected his position in favor of the Jesus-centered viewpoint of the Turk.

Overall, it seems that the early Ottomans -- that is, before c. 1500 when the influx of Arab ideas and the Safavid empire forced the empire into taking a position as the bastion of Sunni Islam -- were a fairly mixed bunch with only limited ties to war for the sake of religion.

I think the end result of an Ottoman Italy and no spread into the Middle East is that so much of the Empire's military, aristocracy and administration is Christian or Christian derived that the end result would eventually be an ATL *Sultan Jajha* who formally converts and turns the Ottomans into a Christian state. The majority Christian populace will support this, while the "Muslims" would be so syncretic in faith that they can accept this and later on be gradually converted to formal Christianity the same way they were led to orthodox Islam as the Empire OTL formalized its status as Islamic.
 
See I am taking my info from Otranto 1480. Il sultano, la strage, la conquista it's an Italian history book about the event.

Queen Anne of Bourbon wrote to Peter II of Bourbon telling him that France would not do anything against the Turkish Invasion of Italy calling it 'greatly in line with French interests and Turkish success is required for French goals in northern Italy and the Papacy to be met.' They even sent a few ships and small contingent of mercenaries into papal territories during the invasion to distract the Papacy in aid of the Turks. Similarly Habsburg Austria was not interested. Frederick III stated 'While a great moral and religious defeat it would be the Habsburg Monarchy will not pursue any action in Italy due to commitments in Burgundy against France' in his letter to future Charles V of the HRE.

the only one interested in a renewed crusade were Hungary and Spain. But at the time Spain was too far to do anything real about it being still warped in the aftermath of the Castilian war of succession to the point that Cardinal Mendoza stated that the castillan navy could do little but watch. Hungary alone would be pummeled by the Turks.


Which is why I am highly sceptical of the claims that the Europeans would go crusading again. Historical evidence points towards the fact that the great powers were content to ignore and int he case of the French, aid the ottomans.
What the French King says he wants, what he actually wants, and what he will want after getting what he says he wants are three different things. And not one of them is what your scenario entails.

The French King says he wants Ottoman victory. He actually wants the papacy permanently in Avignon. If the Ottomans were victorious he would want them pushed back. The relationship is akin to that between Churchill and Stalin. The rhetoric completely flips the moment the distant enemy defeats the nearby enemy.

And the French King doesn't want a heathen legitimized as Caesar. A heathen barbarian occupying Rome may appear convenient in the short term, but a heathen ruling Rome legitimately as Caesar is an imminent threat to France, which is established in formerly Roman Gaul.

The only way the Sultan can be proclaimed Caesar by the Pope without everyone immediately agreeing that the Pope is in fact an antipope and all prospective claimants to the Papacy denouncing him as one is if he first is baptized as a Christian. If Paris is worth a Mass maybe Rome is as well. It certainly costs one to be its legitimate ruler rather than an occupying barbarian in this century.

And, of course, the Holy Roman Emperor can't refuse to answer a formal call to crusade to defend or retake Rome and remain Holy Roman Emperor. He doesn't have to go out himself, but he has to be seen to send forces. He may want to keep his focus on Burgundy, but if push actually came to shove his imperial title derives from the Pope and his vassals and administrators are Catholic and he won't be emperor or even king long if he prevents his vassals and soldiers from answering a call to crusade to protect the heart of Catholic Europe.
 
I think the end result of an Ottoman Italy and no spread into the Middle East is that so much of the Empire's military, aristocracy and administration is Christian or Christian derived that the end result would eventually be an ATL *Sultan Jajha* who formally converts and turns the Ottomans into a Christian state. The majority Christian populace will support this, while the "Muslims" would be so syncretic in faith that they can accept this and later on be gradually converted to formal Christianity the same way they were led to orthodox Islam as the Empire OTL formalized its status as Islamic.

One idea I've played with on this is that, sometime in the 1500s, you have a Sultan who is very Pro-Christian to the extent both of his two sons are Crypto-Christian. At the time of his death, one is in Italy administering the provinces there (Think Exarchate of Ravenna-style) while the other is in Constantinople at the time as heir apparent. His Grand Vizier is, however, the leader of the Islamic aristocracy faction prominent in majority Muslim Anatolia, and upon the Sultan's death produces an alleged son that is firmly Islamic and is able to force the son in Constantinople out of the city while the Grand Vizier rallies Anatolia to his cause, coronating his candidate as Sultan.

The former Sultan's two sons react as they can, with the one who is in Italy (And is the second son, thus entitled to nothing) rallying the provinces there to himself and declaring himself the Western Emperor and formally converting to Catholicism, eschewing any ties to the east. The first son, and the one in the Balkans, is able to rally said majority Christian provinces there to himself as well as gain the support of Wallachia, Bosnia and Moldavia before marching on the city. As part of consolidating his position among the loyalist provinces, he openly converts to Orthodoxy and has himself declared the Eastern Emperor. He ultimately defeats the Grand Vizier's forces, leading to the gradual re-conversion of Anatolia to Orthodoxy and with subsequent Hellenization of the Turks there.

So, from this PoD, you get a restored WRE in Italy and an ERE in the Balkans-Anatolia, both with converted Turkish dynasties.
 
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What the French King says he wants, what he actually wants, and what he will want after getting what he says he wants are three different things. And not one of them is what your scenario entails.

The French King says he wants Ottoman victory. He actually wants the papacy permanently in Avignon. If the Ottomans were victorious he would want them pushed back. The relationship is akin to that between Churchill and Stalin. The rhetoric completely flips the moment the distant enemy defeats the nearby enemy.

And the French King doesn't want a heathen legitimized as Caesar. A heathen barbarian occupying Rome may appear convenient in the short term, but a heathen ruling Rome legitimately as Caesar is an imminent threat to France, which is established in formerly Roman Gaul.

The only way the Sultan can be proclaimed Caesar by the Pope without everyone immediately agreeing that the Pope is in fact an antipope and all prospective claimants to the Papacy denouncing him as one is if he first is baptized as a Christian. If Paris is worth a Mass maybe Rome is as well. It certainly costs one to be its legitimate ruler rather than an occupying barbarian in this century.

And, of course, the Holy Roman Emperor can't refuse to answer a formal call to crusade to defend or retake Rome and remain Holy Roman Emperor. He doesn't have to go out himself, but he has to be seen to send forces. He may want to keep his focus on Burgundy, but if push actually came to shove his imperial title derives from the Pope and his vassals and administrators are Catholic and he won't be emperor or even king long if he prevents his vassals and soldiers from answering a call to crusade to protect the heart of Catholic Europe.
.......We are talking about the same France that sent ships to aid the Ottomans and signed a secret agreement about zones of influence with the Ottomans in Italy during the invasion right?
 
Personally, I think the best chance for this is by avoiding the 1405 defeat at Ankara by Timur. That in of itself was a disaster for Ottoman fortunes but it also kicked off a succession crisis that was even worse for damaging the Ottoman state as well as triggering internal political reforms that in the long run were negative; i.e. new Sultans either killed everyone off or their siblings were allowed to live as dolts who spent their time whoring, which had very bad effects whenever a Sultan died without heir and one of these said dolts took the throne as the replacement.

Outside of that, however, the strategic situation of the early 1400s was probably the best the Ottomans were ever going to see; at this time the Catholic Church is still in a schism which means there will not be any unified response in the form of a Crusade. Even if there was a united Church at this time, the Europeans are in no shape to oppose such an Ottoman offensive. In Italy itself, Milan is in the process of collapse while Venice is still recovering from the twin blows of the Plague as well as the Battle of Chioggia. Aragon, meanwhile, has been dissociated from Sicily by Martin I. France and England meanwhile are still locked in the Hundred Years War while the HRE, Hungary and Poland are having the Hussites focus their attention.

Given this opening, the Ottomans could easily secure the Balkans and Italy to their domains. The opportunity also extends elsewhere in this time too, it should be noted, as Persia doesn't really exist as a united region since the Ilkhanate is gone. The Safavids are but a distant glimmer, so the region remains largely Sunni, removing the historical Sunni-Shia antagonism that would be a check on any Ottoman expansion into the region. Entirely possible that, with the PoD specified, you could Justinian borders in the Med while conquering Iran and Mesopotamia in the East. From where, expansion into East Africa and the Indies would not only be possible, but probable.

Pax Turania, anyone?
Yes, the Timurid Invasion and Restoration of the Anatolian Beyliks set the Ottomans back half a century. Without it, the Ottomans would have probably taken Constantinople in the 1420s or 30s at most
Outside of the above thoughts, I certainly think it was in the realm of possibility for the Ottomans to conquer Italy even after 1453, the issue being though that the resources required would probably prevent them from advancing as far as they did in the Middle East and elsewhere. However, more interestingly, it might result in the long run in a Christian Ottoman Empire rather an an Islamic "Kayser-i-Rum":



I think the end result of an Ottoman Italy and no spread into the Middle East is that so much of the Empire's military, aristocracy and administration is Christian or Christian derived that the end result would eventually be an ATL *Sultan Jajha* who formally converts and turns the Ottomans into a Christian state. The majority Christian populace will support this, while the "Muslims" would be so syncretic in faith that they can accept this and later on be gradually converted to formal Christianity the same way they were led to orthodox Islam as the Empire OTL formalized its status as Islamic.
I am not too sure. Mehmed the Conqueror wished to reunite the Mediterannean World into an explicit Islamic Rome, but albeit one that had religious tolerance for the local Christians and Jews. Conquering the Mediterannean World (basically Syria + Egypt + Maghreb) would give the Ottomans a Muslim majority/plurality. And despite the Ottomans not really caring for conversion, several members of the Christian community of the OE converted of their own free will. Around ~25% of the Greeks converted, ~35% of the Bulgarians converted, and most albanians and Bosniaks converted. It wouldn't be out of the question to assume that a good minority of Italians would convert too. Sicily in particular may become increasingly islamicized and turkified.
 
.......We are talking about the same France that sent ships to aid the Ottomans and signed a secret agreement about zones of influence with the Ottomans in Italy during the invasion right?
France never had trouble with turning on yesterdays allies, a common feature of the times. France does not have friends, France has interests.

but albeit one that had religious tolerance for the local Christians and Jews
And why would Ottomans suddenly develop religious tolerance?
 
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France never had trouble with turning on yesterdays allies, a common feature of the times. France does not have friends, France has interests.
Indeed there is a high chance that the French will turn in the future but in the immediate aftermath of the conquest there is little to no chance of it. Anne and Peter II were notorious turkophiles.

And why would Ottomans suddenly develop religious tolerance?
The Ottomans from the 1450s to the 1560s was a pretty tolerant place in comparison to the rest of Europe. I would highly recommend reading The Ottoman Empire: The classical Age 1300 to 1600.
 
People on the receiving end of their tolerance had a rather different opinion than the rose tinted glasses academics.
No not really. The French Ambassador in 1530s when walking down the streets of Erdine spoke of how the three main religious groups mingled freely with little to no discrimination. The Venetians backed this claim up in the 1550s. The Genoans mentioned a relatively free society in the Anatolian Aegean as well in the 1490s horrifying them because Jews were apparently treated respectfully.
 
It's funny how Bolgarians, Romanians, Serbs and Croats have markedly different of view of that golden age of tolerance.
 
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It's funny how Bolgarians, Romanians, Serbs and Croats have markedly different of view of that golden age of tolerance.
The Croats, admittedly were ill-treated during this time period due to the fact that they were on the frontier with the Habsburgs. The Bulgarian Massacres and Anti-orthodox Massacres didn't start until the 1610s in fact. The serbs were relatively lightly treated until the 1640s too when the first major rebellion in terms of religious terms took place. The Romanians, I assume you mean Wallachia and Moldavia. Both were relatively lightly treated by the Ottomans until the 1700s too. All they had to do was keep in line with Ottoman Foreign Policy and the Ottomans really didn't care about anything else regarding the two. According to The Union of Moldavia and Wallachia by William East, the two Romanian vassal states were relatively the most well treated vassal states in Europe, and Moldavia defected over to the Ottomans due to the rather benign treatment they gave the Moldovans against the Poles who liked to meddle and Polonize the Moldovans.
 

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