January 1924 Romania is ISOT'd back in time to January 1914

[WolfBear]

What if January 1924 Romania (within its January 1924 borders) is ISOT'd back in time to January 1914? Personally, I think that Romania would have a lot of success in warning Franz Ferdinand not to travel to Sarajevo in June of 1914. I also think that Austria-Hungary, especially Hungary, will be extremely upset by this development, as would Russia to a lesser extent, but also that A-H would not risk war over this if Romania will make it crystal-clear that it will ask Russia, France, Serbia, and Britain for military assistance (up to the point of giving Bessarabia back to Russia) in order to protect themselves from an A-H attack if necessary. Thus, I think that relations between A-H and Romania are going to be tense but not up to the point of war. Romania is also likely to get much less bad press since its restrictions on its Jews from 1914 would have already been removed by 1924. Romania is likely to become a much more loyal and reliable German and A-H ally in this TL since its territorial claims would have already been fully satisfied; hence there is no need for Romania to switch sides to the Entente in this TL. I could also see Romania and A-H organizing a population exchange to get a lot of Romania's Hungarians out of Romania and into Hungary, though this might also be risky since this would mean that Hungary might be permanently giving up its claim to territories such as Transylvania.

Anyway, what do you think?

 

[stevep]

It would depend on the Austrian reaction but could be the case. I suspect that having seen what the war was like if it still triggers Romania's attitude could well be "no way hosay" in terms of getting involved on either side given the bloodbath that resulted. One issue of course is that whatever 1924 Romania says the 1914 world very much sees Transylvania as part of the kingdom of Hungary. As such there's going to be pressure on the Austrian leadership, especially from Hungary, that this must be 'corrected'. Also it might be that Russia might not be willing to go to war in this case, or possibly France or Britain in support of Romania here, especially if it means a general war given the details being reported of what 1914-18 was like. [Although with all the powers no doubt there will be people saying 'now we know better and can avoid the OTL mistakes and win the war more quickly and easily'. As such while Romania might find allies to offer support for its 1924 borders it might not or the CPs might still insist on war on the issue. [One other alternative would be if the CPs and Russia come to a deal and both demand the regaining of their lost territories.]

Both the Romanians and assorted non-Romanians are going to be passing on a lot of information that is going to cause massive arguments in many areas. Suspect that some people including Gavrilo Princip and Lenin could have serious health problems as a result.

Not sure what impact the defeat would have in Germany - do they double up on the need for an early war or decide its something to be avoided? Probably different groups will have different viewpoints but who wins out. The Kaiser is very powerful and the army/aristocracy as well but others might well oppose war here. Similarly what does Franz Joseph and FF think of their empire's destruction? Nickolas II and others in Russia will be pondering how to avoid the OTL collapse of their empire and whether they think they can do better 'this time around' or to avoid war at just about any costs.

Similarly will France in 1914 think the reported losses and devastation of much of their country worth removing [for the moment] the German threat and regaining A-L?

With Britain there's likely to be dismay at the huge losses and also concern about a number of other issues such as the split in the Liberal party - which might prompt a new one now as relations between Asquith and Lloyd George is likely to be stormy along with the loss of most of Ireland.

For the US there might be concern that the [admittedly relatively light] losses weren't worth the intervention while other nations will be concerned about the power the US gains because of the heavy debts resulting from the conflict.

Another thing is that Germany offers a treaty to Britain on capital ships, possibly with the dismissal of Tirpiz but then Britain receives reports of major U boat construction?

How will the world respond to reports of the Armenian genocide?

A hell of a lot is going to be thrown into flux far beyond the Romanian border issue and the survival of FF.

 

[Atarlost]

How will the world respond to reports of the Armenian genocide?

Well, at least that one's easy. Russia views with alarm because it is to their political advantage to do so. No one else cares enough to shift an election or change policy because it happens to people who are far away who aren't economically important to them.

 

[WolfBear]

It would depend on the Austrian reaction but could be the case. I suspect that having seen what the war was like if it still triggers Romania's attitude could well be "no way hosay" in terms of getting involved on either side given the bloodbath that resulted. One issue of course is that whatever 1924 Romania says the 1914 world very much sees Transylvania as part of the kingdom of Hungary. As such there's going to be pressure on the Austrian leadership, especially from Hungary, that this must be 'corrected'. Also it might be that Russia might not be willing to go to war in this case, or possibly France or Britain in support of Romania here, especially if it means a general war given the details being reported of what 1914-18 was like. [Although with all the powers no doubt there will be people saying 'now we know better and can avoid the OTL mistakes and win the war more quickly and easily'. As such while Romania might find allies to offer support for its 1924 borders it might not or the CPs might still insist on war on the issue. [One other alternative would be if the CPs and Russia come to a deal and both demand the regaining of their lost territories.]

Both the Romanians and assorted non-Romanians are going to be passing on a lot of information that is going to cause massive arguments in many areas. Suspect that some people including Gavrilo Princip and Lenin could have serious health problems as a result.

Not sure what impact the defeat would have in Germany - do they double up on the need for an early war or decide its something to be avoided? Probably different groups will have different viewpoints but who wins out. The Kaiser is very powerful and the army/aristocracy as well but others might well oppose war here. Similarly what does Franz Joseph and FF think of their empire's destruction? Nickolas II and others in Russia will be pondering how to avoid the OTL collapse of their empire and whether they think they can do better 'this time around' or to avoid war at just about any costs.

Similarly will France in 1914 think the reported losses and devastation of much of their country worth removing [for the moment] the German threat and regaining A-L?

With Britain there's likely to be dismay at the huge losses and also concern about a number of other issues such as the split in the Liberal party - which might prompt a new one now as relations between Asquith and Lloyd George is likely to be stormy along with the loss of most of Ireland.

For the US there might be concern that the [admittedly relatively light] losses weren't worth the intervention while other nations will be concerned about the power the US gains because of the heavy debts resulting from the conflict.

Another thing is that Germany offers a treaty to Britain on capital ships, possibly with the dismissal of Tirpiz but then Britain receives reports of major U boat construction?

How will the world respond to reports of the Armenian genocide?

A hell of a lot is going to be thrown into flux far beyond the Romanian border issue and the survival of FF.

I suspect that Germany would be the biggest winner here since it will know that if war comes, all it needs to do is to avoid resuming USW in 1917 and it will win the war or at least force a CP-friendly compromise peace on the Allies, which is close enough to winning. I don't know if Americans in the 1920s were as negative towards WWI as they would become in the 1930s, but if so, then even with USW resuming, the US might not enter WWI this time around. Or it could enter but do a better job with the peace settlement, which could start by electing Hughes rather than Wilson in 1916.

Would the loss of most of Ireland really be perceived as being that big of a deal in Britain? As for France, I suspect that they will want to avoid war given its extremely massive cost. Even more so for Russia. Unless of course it's a Great Power deal to reduce Romania back down to size Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact-style.

 

[stevep]

I suspect that Germany would be the biggest winner here since it will know that if war comes, all it needs to do is to avoid resuming USW in 1917 and it will win the war or at least force a CP-friendly compromise peace on the Allies, which is close enough to winning. I don't know if Americans in the 1920s were as negative towards WWI as they would become in the 1930s, but if so, then even with USW resuming, the US might not enter WWI this time around. Or it could enter but do a better job with the peace settlement, which could start by electing Hughes rather than Wilson in 1916.

Would the loss of most of Ireland really be perceived as being that big of a deal in Britain? As for France, I suspect that they will want to avoid war given its extremely massive cost. Even more so for Russia. Unless of course it's a Great Power deal to reduce Romania back down to size Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact-style.

Germany could decide it could do better by making some changes to what it did OTL but then so could every other power. It could be argued that the EPs made many more mistakes than the CPs and that was what kept the latter in the war so long. France is unlikely to make the same mistakes as OTL in 1914 for instance and while Russia is more difficult to change course there are still possibilities there. Also even by 1917 OTL the Austrian empire was pretty much dead in the water so I could see Vienna, especially with FF still alive being deeply unwilling to take part in such a destructive bloodbath. While the two western democratic states of Britain and France suffered heavily in the conflict they did pull through in a recognizable form. It was the eastern autocracies of Germany, Russia, Austria and Turkey that collapsed so there should be greater incentive for them to avoid such a disaster and only one of those is a EP power. Germany did become a democratic state as a result of the war but at a very high cost and a lot of people in Germany could decide they want that social and political change without the ruinous bloodbath they hear about and resulting loss of territory.

A lot would depend on what information reaches the 1914 powers, especially the major ones. Since its Romania transported that would largely mean diplomats and merchants from those countries who are in Romania at the time. You could have a number of white Russian refugees possibly and a fair number of the Hungarian minority in Transylvania as significant source of info for other states but I don't know how much they would be able to tell the down-time Russia and Hungary.

 

[WolfBear]

Germany could decide it could do better by making some changes to what it did OTL but then so could every other power. It could be argued that the EPs made many more mistakes than the CPs and that was what kept the latter in the war so long. France is unlikely to make the same mistakes as OTL in 1914 for instance and while Russia is more difficult to change course there are still possibilities there. Also even by 1917 OTL the Austrian empire was pretty much dead in the water so I could see Vienna, especially with FF still alive being deeply unwilling to take part in such a destructive bloodbath. While the two western democratic states of Britain and France suffered heavily in the conflict they did pull through in a recognizable form. It was the eastern autocracies of Germany, Russia, Austria and Turkey that collapsed so there should be greater incentive for them to avoid such a disaster and only one of those is a EP power. Germany did become a democratic state as a result of the war but at a very high cost and a lot of people in Germany could decide they want that social and political change without the ruinous bloodbath they hear about and resulting loss of territory.

A lot would depend on what information reaches the 1914 powers, especially the major ones. Since its Romania transported that would largely mean diplomats and merchants from those countries who are in Romania at the time. You could have a number of white Russian refugees possibly and a fair number of the Hungarian minority in Transylvania as significant source of info for other states but I don't know how much they would be able to tell the down-time Russia and Hungary.

Good analysis, Steve! Also, I wonder if Romania could try making a deal: As in, recognize our new borders, and we'll tell you everything that you want to know about the world over the next ten years in our TL.

BTW, I think that Franz Ferdinand is going to be quite content seeing the Hungarians reduced down to size. Though this would interfere with his universal suffrage plans in Hungary since now Magyars are going to make up a more solid percentage of the total Hungarian population.

Also, if you don't mind, could you please respond to this thread of mine as well?

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www.the-sietch.com

 

[WolfBear]

I suppose that FF would have two options in this TL: Either support the reconquest of Transylvania (nor sure about Bukovina) and thus piss off Romania, or revive this plan:

United States of Greater Austria - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Except without Transylvania and Bukovina, obviously.