If Russia doesn't go Communist in 1917, is Japan still going to behave aggressively towards China in the 1930s?

[WolfBear]

If Russia doesn't go Communist in 1917, is Japan still going to behave aggressively towards China in the 1930s? And could this prompt a Russian military response against Japan sooner or later?

A Russo-Japanese War 2.0 where Russia kicks Japan out of both China and Korea while also securing at least southern Sakhalin for itself would certainly be very interesting. China should subsequently become a pro-Russian independent country, as should Korea, while southern Sakhalin could outright become a part of Russia. What do you think? Is this actually realistic? Actually plausible? And would any other countries get militarily involved in this, other than of course Chinese and Korean fighters who will be fighting for their freedom against their (would-be) Japanese occupiers?

Any thoughts on this? @Ricardolindo @stevep @Zyobot @Skallagrim @History Learner

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Russia would need decades to rebuild from their disastrous participation in WWI, assuming that the Russian Civil War ends in a White victory.

 

[WolfBear]

Russia would need decades to rebuild from their disastrous participation in WWI, assuming that the Russian Civil War ends in a White victory.

There won't necessarily be a Russian Civil War if Lenin is killed before 1917, will there?

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

No, but a Kornilov Coup gone horribly wrong might.

 

[WolfBear]

No, but a Kornilov Coup gone horribly wrong might.

Very true. In which case things should be even easier for Germany in late 1917 and early 1918, no?

 

[Atarlost]

Japan goes bellicose because the naval arms limitations treaties go badly for them. If they get the ratio they think lets them defend themselves from American aggression or keep the alliance with Britain that was broken by the Washington Treaty the Hirohito period probably resembles the Taisho period.

I don't see how White Russia effects this.

 

[WolfBear]

Japan goes bellicose because the naval arms limitations treaties go badly for them. If they get the ratio they think lets them defend themselves from American aggression or keep the alliance with Britain that was broken by the Washington Treaty the Hirohito period probably resembles the Taisho period.

I don't see how White Russia effects this.

Will a White Russia participate in the Washington Naval Talks? It did have a Pacific coastline, after all.

 

[Atarlost]

Will a White Russia participate in the Washington Naval Talks? It did have a Pacific coastline, after all.

They might, but they can only make things worse because they're another enemy Japan has to fear.

To fix the naval treaties you must remove Woodrow Wilson, but if you remove Woodrow Wilson there is no 1919 naval program and thus no impetus for naval treaties.

 

[WolfBear]

They might, but they can only make things worse because they're another enemy Japan has to fear.

To fix the naval treaties you must remove Woodrow Wilson, but if you remove Woodrow Wilson there is no 1919 naval program and thus no impetus for naval treaties.

A different US President, such as C. E. Hughes, would not build up the US Navy?

 

[Atarlost]

A different US President, such as C. E. Hughes, would not build up the US Navy?

A militarist could only win in 1916 by pretending to be anti-war. Only Wilson could run on "He kept us out of war" while doing everything in his power to suck us into the war because only he was the incumbent.

 

[WolfBear]

A militarist could only win in 1916 by pretending to be anti-war. Only Wilson could run on "He kept us out of war" while doing everything in his power to suck us into the war because only he was the incumbent.

Building up the US Navy could be viewed as being a defensive measure to make the US more prepared for future foreign aggression, no?

 

[Atarlost]

Building up the US Navy could be viewed as being a defensive measure to make the US more prepared for future foreign aggression, no?

By a non-American, maybe, though obviously not by the British. By a member of congress from a district that didn't include a shipyard? No way in hell. Future foreign aggression wasn't something the American government believed in until we had to occupy Japan and parts of Germany and protect them from the USSR as demonstrated by how we gutted our own military after every other war.