Had Austria kept Silesia & a big butterfly net would've held everything else together until 1918,how would this have affected the post-WWI settlement?

[WolfBear]

Had Austria kept Silesia & a big butterfly net would've held everything else together (courtesy of Alien Space Bats) until 1918, how would this have affected the post-WWI settlement?

Any ideas, @stevep? Personally, I'm inclined to say that in this TL, a fusion Germano-Czech state might have been created in German Austria, Czechia (including the Sudetenland), and Silesia while Hungary would have been allowed to keep Slovakia and possibly Subcarpathian Ruthenia as well. But what do you think?

 

[stevep]

Well that's a hell of a net but if this happened then its likely there would be an argument for Silesia and Bohemia to be merged with Austria. However if everything else had been the same then the Czechs would still have wanted independence and were in the majority in Bohemia and Wilson would still have been pushing for borders drawn on national identities. You could end up with three separate states or possibly Silesia ending up with Germany. Although with continued rule by Austria and no experience of Prussia/Germany other than hostile invasions in the 1740-1760s and 1866 there might be some local hostility to this idea.

Just about anything could happen but the fused state you mention is a possibility. In which case it might also keep Slovenia and Croatia as the latter was generally loyal to the dynasty - if only for protection from the Hungarians, Serbs and Italians.

 

[WolfBear]

Well that's a hell of a net but if this happened then its likely there would be an argument for Silesia and Bohemia to be merged with Austria. However if everything else had been the same then the Czechs would still have wanted independence and were in the majority in Bohemia and Wilson would still have been pushing for borders drawn on national identities. You could end up with three separate states or possibly Silesia ending up with Germany. Although with continued rule by Austria and no experience of Prussia/Germany other than hostile invasions in the 1740-1760s and 1866 there might be some local hostility to this idea.

Just about anything could happen but the fused state you mention is a possibility. In which case it might also keep Slovenia and Croatia as the latter was generally loyal to the dynasty - if only for protection from the Hungarians, Serbs and Italians.

Yep, it would be an extremely gigantic butterfly net lol. No doubt about that at all!

I think that Serbia will insist on acquiring the Slovenians and Croats for itself for its Yugoslav project, and I don't know if the victorious Allies would actually be willing to oppose the Serbs in regards to this. Honestly, the more that I think about it, the more that I think that your three states idea would be realistic. Having Silesia go to Germany would probably be unrealistic since I'm not sure if the Silesians themselves would actually want this and, in any case, this would seem to reward Germany after it lost a World War, which would likely be viewed as unacceptable, similar to why the Allies blocked an Austro-German union in 1919 even though the Austrians themselves genuinely wanted such a union. So, we could actually see a similar post-WWI map in this TL to the one in our TL, just with an independent Silesia added to the mix. I think that giving Silesia to Czechoslovakia might be difficult because it might then create an excessively large German minority in Czechoslovakia, which I'm not sure that the Czechoslovaks and/or Allies would actually want. The Sudetenland was trouble enough for Czechoslovakia, though at least it had defensive value and was a part of the historical Kingdom of Bohemia.

In this TL, in the 1930s, I wonder if whatever equivalent of Nazi Germany there might be (if there actually is one, of course, which is certainly not guaranteed) will go for Silesia first and only later for Austria. Would the Anglo-French actually be more willing to fight for Silesia than they were for Austria? Frankly, I doubt it. Though this would likely mean that Silesia's independence gets restored if WWII goes the same way for Germany, if this extremely massive butterfly net would still be in effect by then lol.

 

[stevep]

Yep, it would be an extremely gigantic butterfly net lol. No doubt about that at all!

I think that Serbia will insist on acquiring the Slovenians and Croats for itself for its Yugoslav project, and I don't know if the victorious Allies would actually be willing to oppose the Serbs in regards to this. Honestly, the more that I think about it, the more that I think that your three states idea would be realistic. Having Silesia go to Germany would probably be unrealistic since I'm not sure if the Silesians themselves would actually want this and, in any case, this would seem to reward Germany after it lost a World War, which would likely be viewed as unacceptable, similar to why the Allies blocked an Austro-German union in 1919 even though the Austrians themselves genuinely wanted such a union. So, we could actually see a similar post-WWI map in this TL to the one in our TL, just with an independent Silesia added to the mix. I think that giving Silesia to Czechoslovakia might be difficult because it might then create an excessively large German minority in Czechoslovakia, which I'm not sure that the Czechoslovaks and/or Allies would actually want. The Sudetenland was trouble enough for Czechoslovakia, though at least it had defensive value and was a part of the historical Kingdom of Bohemia.

In this TL, in the 1930s, I wonder if whatever equivalent of Nazi Germany there might be (if there actually is one, of course, which is certainly not guaranteed) will go for Silesia first and only later for Austria. Would the Anglo-French actually be more willing to fight for Silesia than they were for Austria? Frankly, I doubt it. Though this would likely mean that Silesia's independence gets restored if WWII goes the same way for Germany, if this extremely massive butterfly net would still be in effect by then lol.

Sorry for the late response but been busy for the week. Serbia would want Croatia but if you have a reformed federal empire then that could well be more attractive to the Croats than the Orthodox Serbs. As such even apart from the fact that the Serbs are currently refugees to all intent and purpose and hence have little position to demand that much more territory you could mollify Wilson by calling for a plebiscite on the issue. Furthermore a reformed and somewhat smaller Austrian empire, especially if its gained lands from Germany [i.e. Silesia] would be seen as a counter to a revanchist Germany.

I think that a Czech [or Czechoslovakian] state would be reluctant to take over Silesia for the reasons you mention but for a federal 'empire' including Bohemia and led by the Hapsburg's it would be very attractive. In terms of an independent Silesia then its a possibility but I don't know of an historical basis for it and it would be potentially vulnerable to both German and Polish designs I suspect.

 

[WolfBear]

Sorry for the late response but been busy for the week. Serbia would want Croatia but if you have a reformed federal empire then that could well be more attractive to the Croats than the Orthodox Serbs. As such even apart from the fact that the Serbs are currently refugees to all intent and purpose and hence have little position to demand that much more territory you could mollify Wilson by calling for a plebiscite on the issue. Furthermore a reformed and somewhat smaller Austrian empire, especially if its gained lands from Germany [i.e. Silesia] would be seen as a counter to a revanchist Germany.

I think that a Czech [or Czechoslovakian] state would be reluctant to take over Silesia for the reasons you mention but for a federal 'empire' including Bohemia and led by the Hapsburg's it would be very attractive. In terms of an independent Silesia then its a possibility but I don't know of an historical basis for it and it would be potentially vulnerable to both German and Polish designs I suspect.

Reasonable analysis, Steve. The one thing that I want to point out, though, is that on ethnic grounds, Poland only has a claim to the easternmost portion of Silesia; most of Silesia is overwhelmingly German:

Red = German; Blue = Polish; Green = Czech

BTW, apparently Silesia was its own duchy in the past:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duchies_of_Silesia

 

[Batrix2070]

Reasonable analysis, Steve. The one thing that I want to point out, though, is that on ethnic grounds, Poland only has a claim to the easternmost portion of Silesia; most of Silesia is overwhelmingly German:

The problem with this map is that if Austria had kept Silesia it would have been mostly Polish and not German.
The Germanization of the region was only started by Frederick II the Great, without his forced project to enforce the German language in schools, offices and churches. Without German colonization had begun, then we would have had such a situation that the big cities are German but the villages and towns around are Polish.
I think that in this way the attitude of Poles towards Germans would have been the opposite of OLT. Hence, Poland would try to claim this region on the basis of religious unity (without Germanization of the local churches would still be under the Polish ecclesiastical province), language and national unity.
The Czechs on the basis of territorial claims (Silesia belonged to the Crown of Bohemia and would probably continue to belong in this alternative Austria).

 

[WolfBear]

The problem with this map is that if Austria had kept Silesia it would have been mostly Polish and not German.
The Germanization of the region was only started by Frederick II the Great, without his forced project to enforce the German language in schools, offices and churches. Without German colonization had begun, then we would have had such a situation that the big cities are German but the villages and towns around are Polish.
I think that in this way the attitude of Poles towards Germans would have been the opposite of OLT. Hence, Poland would try to claim this region on the basis of religious unity (without Germanization of the local churches would still be under the Polish ecclesiastical province), language and national unity.
The Czechs on the basis of territorial claims (Silesia belonged to the Crown of Bohemia and would probably continue to belong in this alternative Austria).

So, the religion map of Silesia would have also looked differently in this TL? In real life, the east and south of Silesia was Catholic and the rest of Silesia was Protestant:

 

[stevep]

So, the religion map of Silesia would have also looked differently in this TL? In real life, the east and south of Silesia was Catholic and the rest of Silesia was Protestant:

Not sure about national identity but since Austria was Catholic, as were the Poles I would say that in 1740 the bulk of the population was Catholic. If Austria stayed in control throughout the following centres I suspect this is unlikely to change.

 

[WolfBear]

Not sure about national identity but since Austria was Catholic, as were the Poles I would say that in 1740 the bulk of the population was Catholic. If Austria stayed in control throughout the following centres I suspect this is unlikely to change.

Look at the Silesia map above: The Red parts are Catholic, the Orange/Gold parts are Mixed, and the Yellow parts are Protestant. This is for 1905 in real life.

 

[stevep]

Look at the Silesia map above: The Red parts are Catholic, the Orange/Gold parts are Mixed, and the Yellow parts are Protestant. This is for 1905 in real life.

Yes but I would suspect that in 1740 a lot more of the population would have been Catholic than in 1905. True by 1740 the big religious tensions and bigotries were much reduced but there would probably have been some changes and also as industrial production expanded people coming in from other parts of the nations. OTL that would have been from Prussia which in the adjacent eastern provinces would have been overwhelmingly Protestants. TTL their more likely to be from the Austrian empire which would have similarly been overwhelmingly Catholic.

 

[WolfBear]

Yes but I would suspect that in 1740 a lot more of the population would have been Catholic than in 1905. True by 1740 the big religious tensions and bigotries were much reduced but there would probably have been some changes and also as industrial production expanded people coming in from other parts of the nations. OTL that would have been from Prussia which in the adjacent eastern provinces would have been overwhelmingly Protestants. TTL their more likely to be from the Austrian empire which would have similarly been overwhelmingly Catholic.

That makes sense: As in, the hypothesis that a lot of Prussians possibly migrated to Silesia from neighboring Protestant regions in the 1740-1905 time period, which will likely be replaced by Catholic Austrian migration to Silesia in this TL.

 

[WolfBear]

@stevep @Batrix2070 Related question: Had Austria won its 1866 war with Prussia and thus reconquered Silesia, would it have made it a separate province?

So, the Duchy of Silesia that's marked as #11 on this map would have been enlarged to incorporate all of Silesia?

 

[stevep]

@stevep @Batrix2070 Related question: Had Austria won its 1866 war with Prussia and thus reconquered Silesia, would it have made it a separate province?

So, the Duchy of Silesia that's marked as #11 on this map would have been enlarged to incorporate all of Silesia?

Don't have a clue. If there was a small province with that name prior to the war that was separate from other one it might seem logical to have the full province as separate. Other than that grasping at straws.

 

[WolfBear]

Don't have a clue. If there was a small province with that name prior to the war that was separate from other one it might seem logical to have the full province as separate. Other than that grasping at straws.

I think that province #11 on the map above used to be much larger until Frederick the Great conquered Silesia in the mid-1700s.