Habsburgs don't inherit Bohemia and Hungary - what happens next?

[raharris1973]

So basically, IOTL the Habsburgs rolled natural 20s on most of their marriage alliances in the early 16th century - the Catholic Monarchs didn't have a surviving son to succeed them, and the line was passed through Juana rather than her elder siblings who predeceased their parents and left no surviving issue. Then on top of that Louis II, last of the Bohemian branch of the Jagiellons, got himself killed at Mohacs, allowing Charles V's brother Ferdinand to step in and claim Bohemia and Hungary based on being the husband of Louis' sister.

So let's say Louis II doesn't get himself killed, or at the very least gets his wife Mary with a son. How does this affect the Habsburg outlook going forward?

(credit to SavoyTruffle on AH.com for this one)

 

[WolfBear]

The Hapsburgs would remain a much more German-focused dynasty for centuries, if not even longer than that, and would be viewed as being similar to the Wittelsbachs by the present-day?

One more thing to consider here is that Austria will not be participating in any future partitions of Poland in this TL due to the lack of any common borders with Poland.

 

[Buba]

IMO this weakens the Habsburgs.
True that with the imbecile getting himself killed they inherited a very hot, three way war in Hungary, hence the country - in spite of its wealth - may have been a net drain.
However - Czechia was RICH!
On the other hand there will be no distractions like e.g. the Turks showing up at the gates of Vienna. In a Louis Lives scenario I do not envision an implosion of Hungary as in OTL, but the war to be waged in the south (in what later gained the name Banat) and on the Croatian border. It was the threeway - Ferdinand, Zapolya and Suleiman - which made Hungary weak.

 

[ATP]

IMO this weakens the Habsburgs.
True that with the imbecile getting himself killed they inherited a very hot, three way war in Hungary, hence the country - in spite of its wealth - may have been a net drain.
However - Czechia was RICH!
On the other hand there will be no distractions like e.g. the Turks showing up at the gates of Vienna. In a Louis Lives scenario I do not envision an implosion of Hungary as in OTL, but the war to be waged in the south (in what later gained the name Banat) and on the Croatian border. It was the threeway - Ferdinand, Zapolya and Suleiman - which made Hungary weak.

Louis was not idiot,he was betrayed by Habsburgs,Poland,Transylwania ,and Czech magnates which send nothing or almost nothing despite being either allies or vassals.
So,if he leabe small son,Habsburgs would kil him,and take over.
Only possibility - do not give battle,but hide infrantry in castles and wage guerilla war with calvary.It could worked.

 

[Buba]

The Polish envoy to the Czecho-Hungarian court thus described the monarch:
"Król im starszy tym głupszy."
"The King - the older the stupider."
I wish to remind readers that Louis died at twenty ...

 

[ATP]

The Polish envoy to the Czecho-Hungarian court thus described the monarch:
"Król im starszy tym głupszy."
"The King - the older the stupider."
I wish to remind readers that Louis died at twenty ...

In situation where even Napoleon would lost battle,so it not matter.But you are right,he would not save Hungary,austrians would kill his son,unless...son would be delivered to Poland and keep save there.In that case,Hungary could survive.

Polish levies was still efficient against other levies - in Orsza battle/1514/ they massacred 80.000 strong moscow army - so they would massacre turks,too.

 

[Buba]

It does not need a "Napoleon" to not give battle ... but never mind

So what do you think happens in the scenario where "Louis lives"? And there is a Hungarian-Turkish War number 29 and a half, keeping the Hungaro-Czech combination occupied.
What does that do to how Charles and Ferdinand Habsburgs deal with events in Germany and Italy?

 

[ATP]

It does not need a "Napoleon" to not give battle ... but never mind

So what do you think happens in the scenario where "Louis lives"? And there is a Hungarian-Turkish War number 29 and a half, keeping the Hungaro-Czech combination occupied.
What does that do to how Charles and Ferdinand Habsburgs deal with events in Germany and Italy?

First - he really was not smart,so ROB must made him smarter.

Second - not giving battle and using guerilla tactic to get time for help/Habsburgs,Poland,Czech and Transylwania would must send something eventually/,he would keep his state independent.
Ottomans in 1526 used levies,too - and worst then hungarians or czech.Janissaries fought without armour to show guts,so ,aside from their bows,they would be no great danger.

And you are right,France and HRE would fight in Italy.with probable the same results as in OTL.

 

[Buba]

Well, the Italian Wars began 30 years previously
Hence I keep on wondering whether Czechia+HUngary being a net gain - extra revenue, or loss - yet another front with the Ottomans plus Hungarian rebels, for the Habsburgs.

 

[raharris1973]

There's what happens to the Habsburg, and then there's what happens the Hungarian-Bohemian personal union under the Hungarian branch of the Jagiellons.

Can the the Hungarians hold out in a combination of most or part of their country, plus Bohemia, or will the Ottomans conquer/vassalize all of Hungary?

Will we see an Ottoman siege, or conquest, of Prague, instead of one of Vienna, due to the Ottomans pursuing Jagiellonian forces rather than Habsburg ones?

 

[ATP]

There's what happens to the Habsburg, and then there's what happens the Hungarian-Bohemian personal union under the Hungarian branch of the Jagiellons.

Can the the Hungarians hold out in a combination of most or part of their country, plus Bohemia, or will the Ottomans conquer/vassalize all of Hungary?

Will we see an Ottoman siege, or conquest, of Prague, instead of one of Vienna, due to the Ottomans pursuing Jagiellonian forces rather than Habsburg ones?

During Mochacz battle part of hungarian forces and almost all of Czech was no present,thanks to magnats being traitors working for Habsburgs.
It would change,when Ottomans go for Prague - they would meet entire Czech army there,and what was left of hungarians.
Ottomans would not win.
And,in that case,you would have polish help,too and our levies then competent enough to massacre turkish levies.

 

[Buba]

Can the the Hungarians hold out in a combination of most or part of their country, plus Bohemia, or will the Ottomans conquer/vassalize all of Hungary?

IMO the Ottomans overruning half of Hungary and vassalising most of the rest was a fluke - only possible due to the Cretin's death and the ensuing civil war between supporters of Mary+Ferdinand versus Zapolya Janos.
IMO the Turks never get past Székesfehérvár, even if they get to glimpse it.

Will we see an Ottoman siege, or conquest, of Prague, instead of one of Vienna, due to the Ottomans pursuing Jagiellonian forces rather than Habsburg ones?

No.

 

[raharris1973]

IMO the Ottomans overruning half of Hungary and vassalising most of the rest was a fluke - only possible due to the Cretin's death and the ensuing civil war between supporters of Mary+Ferdinand versus Zapolya Janos.
IMO the Turks never get past Székesfehérvár, even if they get to glimpse it.


No.

Without merging with the Habsburg, will the Hungarians ever regain everything they ever may lose from the Turks, like Croatia, southeastern Hungary, Banat, Transylvania, back from the Turks?

 

[Buba]

Yes.
ATM this is Hungary AND Czechia we are talking about. Under a competent ruler it is POWERFUL. Look at what Mattias Corvin was capable off ...
But even without the Crown of Saint Vratislav Hungary should be more than capable of nibbling at Ottoman edges, especially when the Sultan has a war with Persia.

 

[ATP]

Yes.
ATM this is Hungary AND Czechia we are talking about. Under a competent ruler it is POWERFUL. Look at what Mattias Corvin was capable off ...
But even without the Crown of Saint Vratislav Hungary should be more than capable of nibbling at Ottoman edges, especially when the Sultan has a war with Persia.

Indeed.Add help from Poland,and victory is assured.Only reason why Hungary fall was Habsburg betreyal nad polish king stupidity.

 

[raharris1973]

Going forward from the initial PoD that keeps Bohemia and Hungary from Habsburg hands from when they were inherited in 1521. And then continuing to keep them out of Habsburg hands afterwards. Sounds like consensus is strong that the Turks won't conquer them, or do much more than grab some border districts and raid frontiers, going forward.

Are Bohemia and Hungary likely to remain in personal union with each other in centuries ahead? Are they likely to be in personal union with any other polities, like Poland-Lithuania, in later decades/centuries? Might Bohemia and Hungary unite with either each other, or with Poland-Lithuania, through some negotiated Commonwealth?

I imagine that even with the enterprise of conquest failing, the 1500s and 1600s would see recurring Ottoman raids (and raids by Ottoman vassals) against Hungary, because that was part of the Empire's way of life. Will that pretty much weaken/slacken by 1700ish? If so, will it give way to a quiet border, with Hungary being content with its Danube/Sava/Carpathian frontiers, or will Hungary be doing big offensives into the Balkans, just with fewer resources than the OTL Habsburgs?

Back in the Hungary-Bohemia-less Habsburg lands, does the lack of Hungary and Bohemia in his domains relieve Charles the V of enough of a burden that he chooses not to retire, or not to split his lands, keeping Habsburg lands of Spain and Austria undivided?

Or does he split them? If he does split them, either at his retirement like OTL, or at his death, does he apportion anything else (likely in the HRE) to Ferdinand rather than Philipp, since Ferdinand does not possess title to Bohemia and Hungary?

With Hungary and Bohemia remaining Jagiellonian and not Habsburg, is the Counter-Reformation any less intensely successful there, and does Protestantism remain stronger?

How are wars of religion changed in the absence of a Habsburg Bohemia?

 

[Buba]

IMO the answer to almost all those questions is "maybe" or "possibly".
Especially the further we go from 1526 - with many answers depending upon the personages and their personalities at POD moments. And the presence or dearth of babies and their sex.
So - butterflies upon butterflies.

The PLC came about due to lack of Jagiellons - either male or fecund females. So if Louis has half a dozen male grandsons. of the right age and reasonable competence as well as ambition - I can see Poland and Lithuania continuing on their separate paths. In OTL Sigismund Augustus' "German" nephews and cousins - Protestant or not - were given thought. But untimely deaths or being too young or other sort of butterflies prevented their (s)election to either throne.
With Louis surving Mohac - by the 1560s there could be half a dozen Jagiellons - male or otherwise - available. Then Commonwealth, PU or separate paths would all IMO be possible.

I do not think that any cross-Carpathian unions going beyond PU would happen. Too disparate interests.

Bohemia and Hungary should drift along together. Nertheless a lack of heirs, or their minority could lead to separate elections, though. Let us say that Louis dies in 1530 or 1540 leaving behind a toddler daughter ...
And let us imagine that Hungary needs a warrior king NOW (like in 1440), whereas Bohemia - not really.

Louis (or his successor) could go Lutheran (or Calvinist) making for a very Protestant Danube Basin. Or he - or his successor - stamps out the heretics.

Ferdinand was Charles' right hand man in Germany, to make ruyling the Habsburg Empire easier. With no Hungarian distraction and Mary - evidently - not available, then he might be given the Vice-Royalty of Netherlands. Maybe a different split - not Spain+Netherlands+Italy versus the Austria + "far east", but maybe Spain+Italy+"Austrian family lands" versus "far north"?

 

[ATP]

Going forward from the initial PoD that keeps Bohemia and Hungary from Habsburg hands from when they were inherited in 1521. And then continuing to keep them out of Habsburg hands afterwards. Sounds like consensus is strong that the Turks won't conquer them, or do much more than grab some border districts and raid frontiers, going forward.

Are Bohemia and Hungary likely to remain in personal union with each other in centuries ahead? Are they likely to be in personal union with any other polities, like Poland-Lithuania, in later decades/centuries? Might Bohemia and Hungary unite with either each other, or with Poland-Lithuania, through some negotiated Commonwealth?

I imagine that even with the enterprise of conquest failing, the 1500s and 1600s would see recurring Ottoman raids (and raids by Ottoman vassals) against Hungary, because that was part of the Empire's way of life. Will that pretty much weaken/slacken by 1700ish? If so, will it give way to a quiet border, with Hungary being content with its Danube/Sava/Carpathian frontiers, or will Hungary be doing big offensives into the Balkans, just with fewer resources than the OTL Habsburgs?

Back in the Hungary-Bohemia-less Habsburg lands, does the lack of Hungary and Bohemia in his domains relieve Charles the V of enough of a burden that he chooses not to retire, or not to split his lands, keeping Habsburg lands of Spain and Austria undivided?

Or does he split them? If he does split them, either at his retirement like OTL, or at his death, does he apportion anything else (likely in the HRE) to Ferdinand rather than Philipp, since Ferdinand does not possess title to Bohemia and Hungary?

With Hungary and Bohemia remaining Jagiellonian and not Habsburg, is the Counter-Reformation any less intensely successful there, and does Protestantism remain stronger?

How are wars of religion changed in the absence of a Habsburg Bohemia?

Lithuania was attacked by Moscow,so they need Poland.But,with available Jagiellons as kings,we would have stronger kingdom there.Not PLC,which,in reality,was republic,not kingdom.
Hungary and Czech would hold together as long as Turkey could conqer them.

But,i do not see great Jagiellon empire covering all that lands.Habsburgs would be busy elsywhere,so probable not splitting their lands.
Since Hungary -czech would fight Ottomans,which was praised by Luder and supported by protestants,they would remain catholics.

What more? Stronger P-L kingdom would fight Moscow and do not try take Sweden throne,so they would win there.
Stronger H-Cz kingdom would fight turks,and eventually win there,too.

 

[Aldarion]

Louis was not idiot,he was betrayed by Habsburgs,Poland,Transylwania ,and Czech magnates which send nothing or almost nothing despite being either allies or vassals.
So,if he leabe small son,Habsburgs would kil him,and take over.
Only possibility - do not give battle,but hide infrantry in castles and wage guerilla war with calvary.It could worked.

He was, first and foremost, betrayed by himself and his magnates. Hungarian mobilization before the battle was pathethically slow. May I remind you, that the initial plan was to relieve Belgrade while it was under siege? But because there was no John Hunyadi any more, that was not done as the magnates dithered. So Belgrade fell, yet the army was not even halfway through the mobilization. And magnates convinced the king to throw away both alternative ideas: to either wait for the remnant of the Croatian army (though I doubt it would have made a difference) or to set up a large wagon camp, which might have allowed him to simply outlast the Ottoman army. Instead, Hungarians opted for an open battle, and lost the kingdom in a day.

 

[Buba]

Wasn't half the Hungarian army not at Mohac?
I remember reading that Zapolya Janos was somewhere in the area - 3 days? a week's march? away ...