Future Conflict Scenario: A Chinese Invasion of the Philippines?

[TheRomanSlayer]

Given the whole Spratlys Island conflict that's been going on for a long time, it wouldn't be surprising that China would resort to such dangerous measures to keep their entire claim on the whole island chain. The Philippines, along with Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan, are the other claimants on those islands. For some odd reason, let's say Sino-Philippine ties sour because of either BBM being overthrown in another EDSA style revolution, or the clashes between the Chinese Coast Guard and Filipino fishermen turn into a bloodbath that the CCG 'wins'.

Would a Chinese invasion of the Philippines be limited in their scope, or would they go all out and actually destroy everything in sight? Right now, they're making preparations for an invasion of Taiwan, but unlike Taiwan, the Chinese would have to go through several islands in order to control them.

DISCLAIMER: I do not condone the Chinese invading my homeland, any more than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is meant to be a brainstorming exercise only.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Mutual Defense Treaty With the United States is still a thing so if China wanted to do something it'd have to use finesse. Launch a limited 'Special Military Operation' while trying not to provoke a strong American Response.

 

[WolfBear]

Mutual Defense Treaty With the United States is still a thing so if China wanted to do something it'd have to use finesse. Launch a limited 'Special Military Operation' while trying not to provoke a strong American Response.

The problem, though, is that any Chinese troops on Filipino soil are likely to provoke a US military response. Or is China planning to do a quick strike and then withdraw a day or two later?

 

[Husky_Khan]

Maybe China would try and do a quick operation to cleanse any disputed islands of Filipino presence. And take out their nascent Navy and Air Force in like a short three day campaign or something and then try and declare victory and that the campaign is over.

Then it'll be a mess untangling a Filipino-US response if they decide to counterattack and/or engage in punitive military measures or not.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Chines troops on the ground in a country where Subic Bay Naval Base is a thing...that's pretty much Casus Beli.

I'm an idiot and need more caffiene. Subic shut down decades ago.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

As for current time response... 😛 it's likely that the US gets extremely involved. That's a massive presence for the Chinese, and allows them to restrict a lot of naval trade if they are allowed to control those waters.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Given that their aim would mostly be limited to seizing the Philippine controlled portions of the Spratly Islands, how much firepower would the PLA be using in this case?

One other thing that I also have to point out is that the Philippine military is not exactly in a good shape to resist the full scale Chinese invasion, hence the RP-US Defense Treaty. Given that China still wants to invade Taiwan, I fear that a Chinese conquest of the Philippines might give both Taiwan and the US more trouble, unless the 7th Fleet manages to neutralize the PLA Navy.

 

[LordsFire]

Given the whole Spratlys Island conflict that's been going on for a long time, it wouldn't be surprising that China would resort to such dangerous measures to keep their entire claim on the whole island chain. The Philippines, along with Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan, are the other claimants on those islands. For some odd reason, let's say Sino-Philippine ties sour because of either BBM being overthrown in another EDSA style revolution, or the clashes between the Chinese Coast Guard and Filipino fishermen turn into a bloodbath that the CCG 'wins'.

Would a Chinese invasion of the Philippines be limited in their scope, or would they go all out and actually destroy everything in sight? Right now, they're making preparations for an invasion of Taiwan, but unlike Taiwan, the Chinese would have to go through several islands in order to control them.

DISCLAIMER: I do not condone the Chinese invading my homeland, any more than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is meant to be a brainstorming exercise only.

If the Chinese try to invade Taiwan, it's reasonably likely that Vietnam and Japan get involved; US involvement is a more complex issue.

If the Chinese try to invade the Philipines, a much more difficult endeavor, it's basically guaranteed that a bunch of other countries get involved, because Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and a bunch of other countries cannot tolerate China taking effective control of the entire South China Sea. On top of that, the Mutual Defense Treaty makes it almost certain the US gets involved.

And if the US gets involved, the Chinese Navy gets sunk, and as much of their air force as they commit to the endeavor gets shot down. If their military performs something like as well as they would like, they may inflict some serious damage on the USN in the process, but by the end of it, China functionally will have no Navy whatsoever, and a rump of an air force if anything at all.

After which Chinese predatory fishing ships will get their asses kicked by the navy of every country in the world that they've been causing problems for.

India might also decide to relieve China of Tibet if enough of their air-force is taken out, and who knows what might happen after that?

Give it another ten years, and if the Democrats keep eroding the US military for that entire time, and the Chinese manage to avert the economic collapse that they're on the verge of, plus continue their military build-up, and you might have a different outcome. Right now though, China trying to reach that far militarily is just asking for an ass-kicking.

 

[Sailor.X]

If the Chinese try to invade Taiwan, it's reasonably likely that Vietnam and Japan get involved; US involvement is a more complex issue.

If the Chinese try to invade the Philipines, a much more difficult endeavor, it's basically guaranteed that a bunch of other countries get involved, because Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and a bunch of other countries cannot tolerate China taking effective control of the entire South China Sea. On top of that, the Mutual Defense Treaty makes it almost certain the US gets involved.

And if the US gets involved, the Chinese Navy gets sunk, and as much of their air force as they commit to the endeavor gets shot down. If their military performs something like as well as they would like, they may inflict some serious damage on the USN in the process, but by the end of it, China functionally will have no Navy whatsoever, and a rump of an air force if anything at all.

After which Chinese predatory fishing ships will get their asses kicked by the navy of every country in the world that they've been causing problems for.

India might also decide to relieve China of Tibet if enough of their air-force is taken out, and who knows what might happen after that?

Give it another ten years, and if the Democrats keep eroding the US military for that entire time, and the Chinese manage to avert the economic collapse that they're on the verge of, plus continue their military build-up, and you might have a different outcome. Right now though, China trying to reach that far militarily is just asking for an ass-kicking.

I think this would be relevant to what would happen to the CCP Navy if they dared to attack the USN and allied forces.



The US has literally in the real world created Macross Missile Massacre. And that should scare the CCP.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

I wonder if mini subs would be far more effective in harassing the PLA Navy, since they may only operate at short distances, but at least they could function as 'mosquito fleets'. Perhaps in a couple of years down the road, the Turkish ST-500 mini submarines might actually prove to be a very good weapon employed by the Philippine Navy, which can help a lot with defending the maritime waters against the PLA Navy.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I wonder if mini subs would be far more effective in harassing the PLA Navy, since they may only operate at short distances, but at least they could function as 'mosquito fleets'. Perhaps in a couple of years down the road, the Turkish ST-500 mini submarines might actually prove to be a very good weapon employed by the Philippine Navy, which can help a lot with defending the maritime waters against the PLA Navy.

Yeah I saw the Philippines was floating the idea of pursuing the purchase of Scorpene Submarines which seem pretty pricey considering they're still needing to outfit the modern surface ships they purchased and were delivered from South Korea.

Scorpenes might be better for power projection and the South China Sea can be far off, so there might be utility there but if the Philippines is worried about the Sulu Sea or other islands, then cheaper submersibles might make sense. There is the common adage that they are like 'mobile minefields' in how they'd be deployed in adverse situations.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

It's most likely that the Scorpene-class submarine will become the first submarine commissioned into the Philippine Navy.