raharris1973
Well-known member
Here's the challenge, have the Americans take over the French war effort in Indochina as soon as the French give up or while the French are still in the process of giving up. The lowest amount of either French or American ground troops at any given time is 100,000. The contrast from OTL is that there is never a partition or a period where the Viet Minh get to take a breather or reins in its cadres in the south. (like OTL's 1954-1959)
If the Indochina war were continues from 1946 until Vietnam is effectively united under a Communist administration or anticommunist administration, when could the war end and which side is more likely to win and why?
Perhaps Operation Lea, in spring 1947, sees a successful French capture or killing of Ho Chi Minh and Vo Nguyen Giap. This does not destroy the Viet Minh movement, but puts it on a quite low simmer until Communist China gets set up on the border, which revives the fortunes of the Viet Minh movement and allows them to raise the pressure on the French to a medium simmer. Communist Chinese support for the Viet Minh is still fairly limited though during the Korean War given Beijing's focus on that theater and home defense. However, the ChiComs boost aid post armistice with Korean War surplus supplies. The French are worn down by a stepped up Viet Minh effort between 1954 and 1961. In 1961, the French are at their wits end trying to get out and suffer a DBP style defeat. By this point in time a new post-Eisenhower administration is in power. The younger leader is in no mood to suffer the political consequences of losing ground to the Communists, and some of the immediate post Korean War weariness has worn off. He gets a resolution to send troops in to protect the newly independent noncommunist government of Vietnam as the French withdraw their troops and end unequal treaty relationships with the former colonies of French Indochina.
US troops are not just doing patrols from the Delta to the DMZ, but from the Mekong Delta to the Red River Delta, Cao Bang near the Chinese border down to thee Ca Mau peninsula. The war ends sometime, in some manner. It cannot go on forever. But it can go on awhile.
Is the above plausible? What would things look like 5, 10 or 15 years after the American part of the war started?
If the Indochina war were continues from 1946 until Vietnam is effectively united under a Communist administration or anticommunist administration, when could the war end and which side is more likely to win and why?
Perhaps Operation Lea, in spring 1947, sees a successful French capture or killing of Ho Chi Minh and Vo Nguyen Giap. This does not destroy the Viet Minh movement, but puts it on a quite low simmer until Communist China gets set up on the border, which revives the fortunes of the Viet Minh movement and allows them to raise the pressure on the French to a medium simmer. Communist Chinese support for the Viet Minh is still fairly limited though during the Korean War given Beijing's focus on that theater and home defense. However, the ChiComs boost aid post armistice with Korean War surplus supplies. The French are worn down by a stepped up Viet Minh effort between 1954 and 1961. In 1961, the French are at their wits end trying to get out and suffer a DBP style defeat. By this point in time a new post-Eisenhower administration is in power. The younger leader is in no mood to suffer the political consequences of losing ground to the Communists, and some of the immediate post Korean War weariness has worn off. He gets a resolution to send troops in to protect the newly independent noncommunist government of Vietnam as the French withdraw their troops and end unequal treaty relationships with the former colonies of French Indochina.
US troops are not just doing patrols from the Delta to the DMZ, but from the Mekong Delta to the Red River Delta, Cao Bang near the Chinese border down to thee Ca Mau peninsula. The war ends sometime, in some manner. It cannot go on forever. But it can go on awhile.
Is the above plausible? What would things look like 5, 10 or 15 years after the American part of the war started?