Europe Alone (or: what if "Years of Rice and Salt" in reverse, by ASB fiat)

[raharris1973]

All this suggests to me that while specific non-Western thinkers from OTL would indeed be missing (and indeed much missed) in this scenario, the West simply produces way more advances per capita than anyone else. Which means that any losses are more than compensated, in the end. A world with more Westerners, is ceteris paribus, more likely to have more advances than a world with fewer Westerners.

OK, I see where you're going with the argument. The case is arguable, in the long run presuming other things don't derail European derived societies' positive trajectories.

Some of the specifics you put into the scenario however, will run counter to the overall Europe-wide, and global trend in some countries though.
For example, the elimination of non-Christians from Europe, especially from Christian ruled states (so everywhere but the Ottoman Empire) will be a negative influence. Jews and Muslims did not tend to drive net innovation down in places where they were non-ruling minorities. Certain economic sectors will be negatively effected by their sudden absence included parts of finance, medicine, handicrafts, and estate management. Most of Europe will weather their absence pretty well with replacement Christian talent, but I imagine Iberia and Poland-Lithuania will be in for a hard adjustment period socioeconomically.

I'm inclined to think Columbus gets no funding here, but that the big discovery of the Americas isn't delayed by all that much. Advances in nautical tech will just have their natural consequences, I think. Probably, as you say, fishermen doing a bit of exploring first. It's pretty easy to imagine that the Northern Europeans, who are mostly cut off from the initial land-claiming in Eurasia, will enjoy their own "wave" of expansion in the Americas.

I think a lot depends on who gets Egypt and control over the Red Sea. If one power controls that and is firmly entrenched, then rivals have a vested interest in going around the Cape.

Egypt will be an obvious golden goose, yes. If religious motivations play a big role, claiming the Holy Land may also be Serious Business. (Although I wonder what the religious effects of just finding it empty will be. No Jerusalem, no Bethlehem, just... nothing there. Christendom remains, but its cradle is gone.)

This leads to an interesting discussion of the alterations to the age of discovery. It is 1492, so the tech is finally here for trans-oceanic voyages, so it is only a matter of time before some are attempted. However, I think as people venture out and become aware of the emptiness and void of civilization beyond, the emphasis will shift, and the core of explorers will shrink to a smaller, hardier bunch, and discoverers of the most distant places will be followed by fewer, hardier, more desperate, or motivated colonists.

Most exploration, colonization, expansion, will diffuse in bulk across Afro-Eurasia gradually via expansion of contiguous or near contiguous landward and coast-wise settlements, running in Africa from north to south, in Asia from west to east, eventually to Australia west to east, and eventually to the Americas, probably starting in Newfoundland and slowly working its way west and southward. So this would leave the Pacific islands and South America as some of the last settled territories on the planet, and Southern Africa as settled fairly late, with Europeans tending to favor reaching Asia via overland wagon train on the silk route, or for higher speed, going via Egypt and the Suez isthmus, or via Asia Minor and the Mesopotamia to the coasts of Asia.

Settlement patterns will also be affected by where Europeans, both southern and northern, feel most comfortable living, working, farming, and stock-raising. So, ironically, Castille-Aragon/Spain, and maybe Portugal will be big early colonial gainers, this time in North Africa, just with their empire consisting of conquests of nature and lands claimed by noblemen, peasants and shepherds. The Italian city states, Provençal's French, and Greeks will also move across the Med. Northern Europeans will also move into the Mediterranean frontier if they can.

Europeans will set up depots along the southern coast of Asia because of the speed advantage of hops by water travel, but they will find the heat oppressive, so some will actually in later decades find higher altitudes like in Afghanistan more pleasant to live in. But the demographic weight in colonization will lean with larger ones being the ones closer to Europe, because there's nobody producing or extracting anything super-interesting at the ends of the earth until they find, harness, and develop those particular natural resources.

The absence of certain crops will hurt too. The potato for instance, won't be there as a famine proofing food for Northern Europeans for a couple centuries, which could lead to greater decimation of the Irish. [Potatoes work as a famine proofer since they can be in the ground until edible and aren't was subject to theft by armies as grain stores]. The absence of certain other crops, like tobacco, marijuana, and coca, will probably be a good thing. Labor shortages, especially in good growing areas will limit people's sugar consumption too, which will be good for their teeth. Coffee and tea cultivation may be lost forever, so some productivity may be lost that way.

This will be way more popular at scale at first than the costs/risks of the Cape route and trans-oceanic colonizing.

 

[WolfBear]

It is January third, 1492. Yesterday, the Emirate of Granada surrendered, completing the Reconquista. Many fervently proclaimed it the start of a new era for Christendom. They had no idea how right they would turn out to be. This morning, it slowly begins to dawn on everyone that a miraculous change has come over the world.

The Muslims and the Jews appear to be gone. Only the Christians are left.

In the coming days, and weeks, and months, it will become evident that this is not just the case in the Iberian pensinsula. All non-Christians have vanished from Europe. What's more, all people -- period -- have vanished from the rest of the world. Although none alive have an accurate grasp of the world's geography, the map of our planet now looks like this:

The depicted nations in Europe (as well as the Atlantic islands already held by Iberian kingdoms) continue to exist as before, albeit with only their European, Christian inhabitants remaining. (These, in any event, formed the overwhelming majority anyway.)

The region denoted in darker green, and with a red border, has witnessed the sudden vanishing of all non-Christians. The Christians of European descent who lived there have remained, and their subjugation to foreign overlords is suddenly ended. Many Serbs, Bulgarians, Greeks, Armenians, Georgians and Russians celebrate wildly -- although they'll have to build up new states in short order, and their future is full of uncertainty.

The lighter green areas, which coven the greater part of the world's land-mass, are now devoid of all human life. Nearly all human-built structure have also vanished. Only those erected by European powers (such as Hellenistic or Roman ruins) remain unaffected. The alterations that humans have brought to the land itself over the millennia, however, remain. Ditches remain behind, stones that we once removed from the soil do not retern to it. Crops remain planted, although now unattended to.

There is an empty world out there, ready to be discovered. Humanity numbers circa 85 million people. All European, all Christian. A further 183 million people (or so) have vanished from the Earth, never to return to this particular universe.

The question is: what happens next?


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This quick little idea is a response to the oft-heard bullshit argument that Europe only became rich and powerful by oppressing and exploiting others. The truth is that by 1492, Europe was already the most advanced region in the world, and that's why Europe managed to conquer so much of the world.

The book named The Years of Rice and Salt imagines a world where pracically all Europeans have vanished. The authorial instrument used to achieve this is an ATL Black Death that inexplicably kills more than 95% of all Europeans (but magically doesn't kill that many non-Europeans). That's completely unrealistic, and basically just an ASB hand-wave. I've cut out the bullshit and gone straight to the ASBs. Thus, we get the reverse of the book. We get a world where only the European Christians remain.

I think such a world would handily demonstrate that Europeans certainly didn't need anyone else around to "exploit" or "oppress" in order to become ludicrously wealthy and successful -- but I'm eager to hear the opinions of others.

I think that in this TL Christians truly are going to believe that they are God's chosen people. After all, right after they complete the Reconquista, God wipes out all of the other global religions. It's as if, after the end of the Reconquista, God would be sending Christians a message that Yes, they have his favor and that he has thus now decided to grant the entire world to Christendom after wiping out all of the followers of all of the other, heathen religions.

 

[stevep]

I think that in this TL Christians truly are going to believe that they are God's chosen people. After all, right after they complete the Reconquista, God wipes out all of the other global religions. It's as if, after the end of the Reconquista, God would be sending Christians a message that Yes, they have his favor and that he has thus now decided to grant the entire world to Christendom after wiping out all of the followers of all of the other, heathen religions.

Not only that but he's wiped out millions of heretics which will suggest to both Catholics and Orthodox that its their branch of Christianity that is the 'pure' one. Since both survived the slaughter/cleansing logic would suggest they have enough in common that both should agree each is correct but since we're talking about religion I suspect it won't go that way.

 

[Bassoe]

Well it occurs to me that the rapid disappearance of human breathers and farter/belchers [and animal ones if livestock disappear too], plus uncontrolled reforestation and growth of grasses, is going to crash CO2 levels and descend the planet into an ice age starting pretty soon, glaciating the European cradle of science, technology, and industry.

To be completely fair, "there's lots of empty land down south which, unlike Europe, isn't a frozen wasteland" seems a great motive for colonialism.

I am now driving myself crazy trying to find this timeline I remember from deviantart's alternate history community, I just don't remember who specifically did it, which was basically this, combining "Europe alone" and "ice age". A continuation of Frostpunk to the modern era, as the volcanic ash cleared out of the atmosphere and the glaciers receded, with the only survivors of humanity, the inhabitants of the game's Last City and a bunch of underground Australians, recolonizing the entire planet. Both of whom thought they were alone for decades before rediscovering each other.

 

[WolfBear]

Not only that but he's wiped out millions of heretics which will suggest to both Catholics and Orthodox that its their branch of Christianity that is the 'pure' one. Since both survived the slaughter/cleansing logic would suggest they have enough in common that both should agree each is correct but since we're talking about religion I suspect it won't go that way.

Maybe they could do a deal to partition the world into spheres of influence between them, similar to what Spain and Portugal did with this treaty in 1494 in real life? :

Treaty of Tordesillas - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[stevep]

Maybe they could do a deal to partition the world into spheres of influence between them, similar to what Spain and Portugal did with this treaty in 1494 in real life? :

Treaty of Tordesillas - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That would be the sensible route, although given their geographical position and that the Americas aren't known about this would generally favour the Orthodox communities as their in a position to secure most of Asia while the Catholic powers would only really be able to reach Africa more easily. Not to mention the sheer lack of accurate knowledge of much of world geography at this point.

However I suspect that the desire to cement their claim to be the 'true' faith plus existing bad history between the two would make conflict more likely than peaceful agreement.

 

[raharris1973]

That would be the sensible route, although given their geographical position and that the Americas aren't known about this would generally favour the Orthodox communities as their in a position to secure most of Asia while the Catholic powers would only really be able to reach Africa more easily. Not to mention the sheer lack of accurate knowledge of much of world geography at this point.

However I suspect that the desire to cement their claim to be the 'true' faith plus existing bad history between the two would make conflict more likely than peaceful agreement.

I think the Catholics are going to have high confidence they can walk all over the Orthodox in this case. Many Orthodox states in the Balkans and Greece and Ruthenia in the lead-up to the Ottoman conquests had been in at least some form of communion with Pope in these centuries, even if they kept a different liturgy and rite. The Pope was always attempting fusionist or absorptive efforts.

The sudden absence of the Ottomans means there is no protection to keep the Catholic forces at bay, and Catholic Europe has much more population and land and military/naval power. The Muscovites with their greater remoteness and land area are best positioned to remain independent.

Of course some of what motivated those communions was need for protection from the Turks and Tatars, and that is gone. If the Catholic world is fragmenting anyway in this TL's version of a Reformation, the Orthodox Balkan areas may be susceptible to Neo-assertive Orthodoxy, or Orthodox regions taking part in the Reformation as another branch. They'd be attracted to aspects such as vernaculars, priestly marriage, supremacy of secular princes, etc.

 

[stevep]

I think the Catholics are going to have high confidence they can walk all over the Orthodox in this case. Many Orthodox states in the Balkans and Greece and Ruthenia in the lead-up to the Ottoman conquests had been in at least some form of communion with Pope in these centuries, even if they kept a different liturgy and rite. The Pope was always attempting fusionist or absorptive efforts.

The sudden absence of the Ottomans means there is no protection to keep the Catholic forces at bay, and Catholic Europe has much more population and land and military/naval power. The Muscovites with their greater remoteness and land area are best positioned to remain independent.

Of course some of what motivated those communions was need for protection from the Turks and Tatars, and that is gone. If the Catholic world is fragmenting anyway in this TL's version of a Reformation, the Orthodox Balkan areas may be susceptible to Neo-assertive Orthodoxy, or Orthodox regions taking part in the Reformation as another branch. They'd be attracted to aspects such as vernaculars, priestly marriage, supremacy of secular princes, etc.

That is the prime reason why I would expect problems. With the Ottomans removed as a protector - since the Balkan Orthodox often found them markedly less oppressive than the Catholics, especially in this period - its likely that the church, along with probably assorted secular rulers will see easy prey.

What might save the southern Orthodox, as well as their own efforts, could be also the disruption of the economies of the rump world and also that so much free land is available without opposition. Although that also means starting from scratch, with no local serfs to work the land for you and buildings and other facilities - bridges, irrigation systems and the like disappearing.