Eparkhos
Well-known member
Alright, in long:
The short-term future in a no-1204 world is the existing Angelos regime being deposed by a coalition of noble families similar to that which established the Komnenian dynasty a century and change before. The Angeloi were complete shitheads and widely hated, so they have a definite end date and will almost certainly be gone by 1210. The question is who replaces them.
To make a long story short there are two real options: The Laskaroi and the Megalokomnenoi, all the other contender dynasties being too weak or divisive to be plausible. I'm not too sure about the Megalokomnenoi, as with their backing by Tamar of Georgia (and her armies), Alexios and David might be seen as foreign puppets, and their was likely still some residual resentment after the trainwreck of Manuel's late reign and Andronikos I, so I'll assume Theodoros or Konstantinos Laskaris has succeeded in deposing the Angeloi with the support of a noble coalition.
The most pressing problem of the early 13th century is centralization, as the Angeloi had allowed thematic governors and pronoiai to effectively carve out statelets for themselves across the empire--according to a map I can't be assed to dredge up, Thrace, Epirus and Bithynia were the only parts of the empire where the state still functioned. Individually, these provincial governors could be crushed in one or two campaigns by a large and determined force (see the Frankokratia), but because of the noble coalitions that dominated post-Komnenian Byzantine power politics, doing so brings a serious chance of a revolt backed by the other governors, which grows stronger as more regions are incorporated. Even if this can be resolved, this period of decentralization will have caused God-only-knows how much corruption & institutional rot that will take generations to sort out, if ever, and will hamper the state indefinitely.
The second problem of the early 13th century are Byzantium's neighbors. Bulgaria is very strong in the early 1200s, and with Kaloyan poised to come down on Constantinople like the wrath of God fending them off will be extremely difficult in and of itself. Reconquering Bulgaria will likely be impossible for a century or more due to organization and protonationalistic thought, assuming Bulgaria doesn't just crush the Byzantines. At sea, the Venetians will be a constant nuisance and threat out of a desire for concessions and more power, albeit not as much as OTL given they haven't been whetted by 1204. I think they might get a few islands, at least for the short term. To the east, the Rumites are also a growing power (for now), with a series of capable rulers taking advantage of the ongoing chaos to push west, and with little to no institutional problems for them they will be a very resilient threat. Finally there is Tamar's Georgia, which can either be a great ally or a terrible enemy, capable of pinning down the Rumites and greatly relieving the pressure on the Byzantines or setting up a puppet dynasty under the Megalokomnenoi in Trebizond and contesting control of the Black Sea trade and leadership of the Orthodox world. It could go either way, though I think mutual conflict with the Turks will drive Byzantium and Georgia closer together.
Note: I'm skipping social and economic analysis for the short term, but the best option (and the one the Laskarioi are most likely to pursue) is to break up as many estates as possible/conquer more land to revive the themata and reform the pronoiai to make them more effective as they were under Alexios I/Ioannes II. Tradewise their best option is to increase trade ties to the West through multiple sources to reduce Venetian power and increase state revenues (focusing on wines, alum and other agri products) while encouraging domestic proto-industry.
(1/X)
The short-term future in a no-1204 world is the existing Angelos regime being deposed by a coalition of noble families similar to that which established the Komnenian dynasty a century and change before. The Angeloi were complete shitheads and widely hated, so they have a definite end date and will almost certainly be gone by 1210. The question is who replaces them.
To make a long story short there are two real options: The Laskaroi and the Megalokomnenoi, all the other contender dynasties being too weak or divisive to be plausible. I'm not too sure about the Megalokomnenoi, as with their backing by Tamar of Georgia (and her armies), Alexios and David might be seen as foreign puppets, and their was likely still some residual resentment after the trainwreck of Manuel's late reign and Andronikos I, so I'll assume Theodoros or Konstantinos Laskaris has succeeded in deposing the Angeloi with the support of a noble coalition.
The most pressing problem of the early 13th century is centralization, as the Angeloi had allowed thematic governors and pronoiai to effectively carve out statelets for themselves across the empire--according to a map I can't be assed to dredge up, Thrace, Epirus and Bithynia were the only parts of the empire where the state still functioned. Individually, these provincial governors could be crushed in one or two campaigns by a large and determined force (see the Frankokratia), but because of the noble coalitions that dominated post-Komnenian Byzantine power politics, doing so brings a serious chance of a revolt backed by the other governors, which grows stronger as more regions are incorporated. Even if this can be resolved, this period of decentralization will have caused God-only-knows how much corruption & institutional rot that will take generations to sort out, if ever, and will hamper the state indefinitely.
The second problem of the early 13th century are Byzantium's neighbors. Bulgaria is very strong in the early 1200s, and with Kaloyan poised to come down on Constantinople like the wrath of God fending them off will be extremely difficult in and of itself. Reconquering Bulgaria will likely be impossible for a century or more due to organization and protonationalistic thought, assuming Bulgaria doesn't just crush the Byzantines. At sea, the Venetians will be a constant nuisance and threat out of a desire for concessions and more power, albeit not as much as OTL given they haven't been whetted by 1204. I think they might get a few islands, at least for the short term. To the east, the Rumites are also a growing power (for now), with a series of capable rulers taking advantage of the ongoing chaos to push west, and with little to no institutional problems for them they will be a very resilient threat. Finally there is Tamar's Georgia, which can either be a great ally or a terrible enemy, capable of pinning down the Rumites and greatly relieving the pressure on the Byzantines or setting up a puppet dynasty under the Megalokomnenoi in Trebizond and contesting control of the Black Sea trade and leadership of the Orthodox world. It could go either way, though I think mutual conflict with the Turks will drive Byzantium and Georgia closer together.
Note: I'm skipping social and economic analysis for the short term, but the best option (and the one the Laskarioi are most likely to pursue) is to break up as many estates as possible/conquer more land to revive the themata and reform the pronoiai to make them more effective as they were under Alexios I/Ioannes II. Tradewise their best option is to increase trade ties to the West through multiple sources to reduce Venetian power and increase state revenues (focusing on wines, alum and other agri products) while encouraging domestic proto-industry.
(1/X)