Erich von Falkenhayn decides to adopt an Eastern strategy in 1916

WolfBear

Well-known member
What if Erich von Falkenhayn would have decided to adopt an Eastern strategy in 1916? Specifically having the main concentration of his forces advance northeast to Riga and from them on aim to advance up to St. Petersburg while the southern concentration of his forces, along with those of Austria-Hungary, would have aimed to advance up to Minsk and Kiev? This would require having A-H army chief Conrad von Hotzendorf drop his plans for an Italian offensive and thus avoid stripping the A-H forces on the Eastern Front of vital defenses. This would also make having Russia launch a successful Brusilov Offensive much more difficult than it was in real life. In the West, Germany will aim to retreat to an extremely long Hindenburg Line-style defensive barrier a year earlier than it did in real life. There would also be no German Verdun offensive in the West in 1916 in this scenario.

Anyway, how exactly would all of this have unfolded?
 
The reason he didn't IOTL was due to having tried to knock the Russians out of the war in 1915 and despite inflicting massive defeats on the Russians couldn't get them to negotiate; he considered it impossible to militarily force them out of the war due to the strategic depth of the country by 1916 as well as the logistical difficulties that came from the front advancing hundreds of miles east. Verdun was a much more militarily achievable plan and set to bleed out the much smaller French army so that they could create the conditions for a political end the war in France, as the German government considered 1916 to be do or die as the Entente had developed its military strength to crushing proportions and the home front in Germany was getting very shaky. That also explains the 'Hail Mary' move of USW in 1917.

But assuming we play out your scenario there is still the issue of logistics and if it was even possible to do what you suggest. Riga was only 'ripe' for offensive in 1917 due to the huge losses the Russians took in 1917 and of course after their morale was shattered with the removal of the Czar and political instability. Russian logistics were getting stronger as they retreated east and the German ones were quite a bit weaker. If the Germans attacked all the Russian reserves that were used to attack Lake Naroch and launch the Brusilov Offensive would be available to defend the Baltic area. That also does nothing about the Entente reserves and the offensives they could launch to support Russia and sap German reserves.

IMHO this move would actually cause the CPs to be defeated in 1916 or 17.
 
The reason he didn't IOTL was due to having tried to knock the Russians out of the war in 1915 and despite inflicting massive defeats on the Russians couldn't get them to negotiate; he considered it impossible to militarily force them out of the war due to the strategic depth of the country by 1916 as well as the logistical difficulties that came from the front advancing hundreds of miles east. Verdun was a much more militarily achievable plan and set to bleed out the much smaller French army so that they could create the conditions for a political end the war in France, as the German government considered 1916 to be do or die as the Entente had developed its military strength to crushing proportions and the home front in Germany was getting very shaky. That also explains the 'Hail Mary' move of USW in 1917.

But assuming we play out your scenario there is still the issue of logistics and if it was even possible to do what you suggest. Riga was only 'ripe' for offensive in 1917 due to the huge losses the Russians took in 1917 and of course after their morale was shattered with the removal of the Czar and political instability. Russian logistics were getting stronger as they retreated east and the German ones were quite a bit weaker. If the Germans attacked all the Russian reserves that were used to attack Lake Naroch and launch the Brusilov Offensive would be available to defend the Baltic area. That also does nothing about the Entente reserves and the offensives they could launch to support Russia and sap German reserves.

IMHO this move would actually cause the CPs to be defeated in 1916 or 17.

How exactly was the German home front getting very shaky by 1916?

Did the Entente have anything comparable to the necessary forces and strategy to break through a Hindenburg Line equivalent in 1916? Or are you suggesting that the Entente would attack before the Germans would actually be able to retreat to a Hindenburg-style line? If so, what exactly allowed the Germans to successfully retreat to such a line in early 1917?
 
How exactly was the German home front getting very shaky by 1916?
Starvation, fear, strikes, politics. USW didn't come out of no where.

Did the Entente have anything comparable to the necessary forces and strategy to break through a Hindenburg Line equivalent in 1916? Or are you suggesting that the Entente would attack before the Germans would actually be able to retreat to a Hindenburg-style line? If so, what exactly allowed the Germans to successfully retreat to such a line in early 1917?
No. But the H-Line didn't exist in 1916. The combined Franco-British forces used at their own leisure to build up would be too hard to deal with in a single place, though logistics would be too hard to make it a true breakthrough.
The German retreat was prepared months in advance to wreck the territory they retreated out of, build the new line made of steel and concrete, and was only when they were ready to evacuate in phases.
 
BTW, @sillygoose, what do you think happens if Moltke refuses to send the two corps from the West to the East shortly before the Battle of the Marne in 1914?
 
BTW, @sillygoose, what do you think happens if Moltke refuses to send the two corps from the West to the East shortly before the Battle of the Marne in 1914?
Good question.
It was the XI corps and Guards Reserve corps and 8th cavalry division:
On 31 August, Hindenburg received the following orders, "XI Corps, Guards Reserve Corps, and 8th Cavalry Division are placed at your disposal. Their transport has begun.
5 divisions in total, plus corps troops; the XI corps had aviation elements, but the Guards did not. Otherwise they were equipped about the same and both were equipped as well as any active corps (reserve corps usually were missing elements of corps troops).

They were freed up on the capture of Namur on August 25th. The Marne started September 6th, so they had plenty of time to march to the front somewhere.

The question is whether they'd be sent to the right spot. If sent to counter the French 6th army and let the German 1st army remain in place and dealing with the BEF and French 5th then they might have a chance to win. Not sure though. Here is the situation on the 9th, which I doubt two corps and a cavalry division could save:
maps_12_marne1914_6_(1600).jpg


However if sent to help the IV reserve corps on the 5th they could potentially rescue the situation there:
maps_11_marne1914_5.jpg


Late on 4 September, Joffre ordered the Sixth Army to attack eastwards over the Ourcq towards Château Thierry as the BEF advanced towards Montmirail, and the Fifth Army attacked northwards with its right flank protected by the Ninth Army along the St. Gond marshes. On 5 September, the Battle of the Ourcq commenced when the Sixth Army advanced eastwards from Paris. That morning it came into contact with cavalry patrols of the IV Reserve Corps of General Hans von Gronau, on the right flank of the 1st Army west of the Ourcq River. Seizing the initiative in the early afternoon, the two divisions of IV Reserve Corps attacked with field artillery and infantry into the gathering Sixth Army and pushed it back. Overnight, the IV Reserve Corps withdrew to a better position 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) east, while von Kluck, alerted to the approach of the Allied forces, began to wheel his army to face west.

Gronau ordered the II Corps to move back to the north bank of the Marne, which began a redeployment of all four 1st Army corps to the north bank which continued until 8 September. The swift move to the north bank prevented the Sixth Army from crossing the Ourcq. In this move against the French threat from the west, von Kluck ignored the Franco-British forces advancing from the south against his left flank and opened a 50-kilometre (30 mi) gap in the German lines between the 1st Army and the 2nd Army on its left (east). Allied air reconnaissance observed German forces moving north to face the Sixth Army and discovered the gap.[21] The lack of coordination between von Kluck and Bülow caused the gap to widen further. On the night of September 7, Bülow ordered two of his corps to withdraw to favorable positions just hours before von Kluck ordered these same two corps to march to reinforce 1st Army on the Ourcq River.[22] At exactly the same time, von Kluck and his influential staff officer Hermann von Kuhl had decided to break the French Sixth Army on the 1st Army's right flank while Bülow shifted an attack to the 2nd Army's left wing, the opposite side from where the gap had opened.[23]

The Allies were prompt in exploiting the break in the German lines, sending the BEF and the Fifth Army into the gap between the two German armies. The right wing of the Fifth Army attacked on 6 September and pinned the 2nd Army in the Battle of the Two Morins, named for the two rivers in the area, the Grand Morin and Petit Morin. The BEF advanced on 6–8 September, crossed the Petit Morin, captured bridges over the Marne, and established a bridgehead 8 kilometres (5 mi) deep. The slow pace of the BEF's advance enraged d'Esperey and other French commanders. On 6 September Haig's forces moved so slowly they finished the day 12 km behind their objectives and lost only seven men.[24] The BEF, though outnumbering Germans in the gap ten to one, advanced only forty kilometers in three days.[25] The Fifth Army by 8 September crossed the Petit Morin, which forced Bülow to withdraw the right flank of the 2nd Army. The next day, the Fifth Army recrossed the Marne, and the German 1st and 2nd Armies began to retire.[26] The Germans had still hoped to smash the Sixth Army between 6 and 8 September, but the Sixth Army was reinforced on the night of 7/8 September by 10,000 French reserve infantry ferried from Paris. This included about 3,000 men from the Seventh Division who were transported in a fleet of Paris taxicabs requisitioned by General Gallieni. During the critical period of 6 to 7 September von Moltke issued no orders to either von Kluck or Bülow, and received no reports from them between 7 and 9 September.[23]

Had they not had to redeploy 1st army and could instead deploy the two corps and cavalry division to support IV Reserve Corps then I think the situation could be fought to a stalemate.
 
Good question.
It was the XI corps and Guards Reserve corps and 8th cavalry division:

5 divisions in total, plus corps troops; the XI corps had aviation elements, but the Guards did not. Otherwise they were equipped about the same and both were equipped as well as any active corps (reserve corps usually were missing elements of corps troops).

They were freed up on the capture of Namur on August 25th. The Marne started September 6th, so they had plenty of time to march to the front somewhere.

The question is whether they'd be sent to the right spot. If sent to counter the French 6th army and let the German 1st army remain in place and dealing with the BEF and French 5th then they might have a chance to win. Not sure though. Here is the situation on the 9th, which I doubt two corps and a cavalry division could save:
maps_12_marne1914_6_(1600).jpg


However if sent to help the IV reserve corps on the 5th they could potentially rescue the situation there:
maps_11_marne1914_5.jpg




Had they not had to redeploy 1st army and could instead deploy the two corps and cavalry division to support IV Reserve Corps then I think the situation could be fought to a stalemate.

Could this result in Kluck's First Army avoiding the risk of encirclement and in the front line thus being stabilized at the Marne itself instead of at the Aisne? If so, any ideas on how this will subsequently affect the war? And might this result in the fall of Verdun in 1914 in this TL?
 
Could this result in Kluck's First Army avoiding the risk of encirclement and in the front line thus being stabilized at the Marne itself instead of at the Aisne? If so, any ideas on how this will subsequently affect the war? And might this result in the fall of Verdun in 1914 in this TL?
IMHO yes. It would hinge on how the race to the sea played out subsequently when both sides tried to flank each other. The French had a group of 3rd and 4th line units to the west, but they weren't enough attack on their own.
That's a big question, so let me ponder it for a bit.
 
IMHO yes. It would hinge on how the race to the sea played out subsequently when both sides tried to flank each other. The French had a group of 3rd and 4th line units to the west, but they weren't enough attack on their own.
That's a big question, so let me ponder it for a bit.

Any chance that this could result in a German-occupied Calais in this TL?
 
Any chance that this could result in a German-occupied Calais in this TL?
Potentially. Though if the Germans won the race to the sea the war in the west would effectively be over, as the British would have to retain a major force at home to hedge against a naval invasion, while having the English Channel open to elements of the German fleet would complete screw the Entente for myriad reasons.

Looks like the German IX reserve corps would be very important when it showed up on the 15th of September:
The German IX Reserve Corps arrived from Belgium by 15 September

Without a retreat I doubt the Allies could free up troops to try and flank either, so it remains an open question who would be first to start flanking here; seems like the Germans with the IX RC, as the French 6th army would be tied down fighting 3 German corps and a cavalry division and the French 5th and BEF would be heavily engaging the German 1st and 2nd armies.

Here is the distance retreated from the 5th to 13th IOTL for reference:
Opposing_positions_5_September_%28dashed_line%29_13_September_%28black_line%29.jpg
 
Potentially. Though if the Germans won the race to the sea the war in the west would effectively be over, as the British would have to retain a major force at home to hedge against a naval invasion, while having the English Channel open to elements of the German fleet would complete screw the Entente for myriad reasons.

Looks like the German IX reserve corps would be very important when it showed up on the 15th of September:


Without a retreat I doubt the Allies could free up troops to try and flank either, so it remains an open question who would be first to start flanking here; seems like the Germans with the IX RC, as the French 6th army would be tied down fighting 3 German corps and a cavalry division and the French 5th and BEF would be heavily engaging the German 1st and 2nd armies.

Here is the distance retreated from the 5th to 13th IOTL for reference:
Opposing_positions_5_September_%28dashed_line%29_13_September_%28black_line%29.jpg

Why bother with a race to the sea then. Reinforce success and take Paris. Force the French to defend it and pound it to submission.
 
Why bother with a race to the sea then. Reinforce success and take Paris. Force the French to defend it and pound it to submission.
Easier to flank than try to fight their way through, especially when outnumbered but the line is holding.
 
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I don't think so, but they could move to the Channel.

Move to the Channel with their troops or with their ships, or both?

Also, another question for you: If the Germans achieve a later victory in WWI and then attempt to impose a German puppet government in Russia after overthrowing the Bolsheviks, just how successful will the Germans be in this regard?
 
Move to the Channel with their troops or with their ships, or both?
Both

Also, another question for you: If the Germans achieve a later victory in WWI and then attempt to impose a German puppet government in Russia after overthrowing the Bolsheviks, just how successful will the Germans be in this regard?
Abysmal. No way they could impose a puppet government on all of Russia. They could however break them up into pieces like B-L and make those work.
 
Both


Abysmal. No way they could impose a puppet government on all of Russia. They could however break them up into pieces like B-L and make those work.

And the effects of this would be to threaten the British and make them incapable of sending as much of their forces to France as they otherwise could have?

But even with its Brest-Litovsk losses, the Russian core of Russia remained intact. Are you thinking of even further break-ups of Russia here?
 
And the effects of this would be to threaten the British and make them incapable of sending as much of their forces to France as they otherwise could have?
Among other things, yes.

But even with its Brest-Litovsk losses, the Russian core of Russia remained intact. Are you thinking of even further break-ups of Russia here?
Russia without B-L territories in 1918 is going to be economically crippled.
 
Among other things, yes.


Russia without B-L territories in 1918 is going to be economically crippled.

Which other things?

It isn't economically crippled right now, and it currently has even worse borders than B-L (no Central Asia and Belarus).
 

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