Business & Finance Economic Fallout: Pandemic, Brandon, Money Printer Go Brr, Ukraine.

DarthOne

☦️
CNN Analyst Suggests Inflation Is Needed To Achieve Green Agenda


As we have covered in the past here on ZH, the inflation/stagflation crisis is immensely damaging to the average person, with the threat of poverty and food shortages hanging over the majority of the population, but there are some people out there who see the crisis as a boon, specifically for the Green agenda and carbon taxation.


CNN economic analyst Rana Foroohar follows the bizarre line of thinking in an interview with The Ezra Kline Show, suggesting that inflation is needed in order to pave the way for a carbon credit based economy. She argued:

“...This is something that I think, unfortunately, no politician, particularly the Democrats right now in advance of midterms or a presidential election want to land on, which is some of the transitions to a kinder, gentler, I believe more stable, and ultimately more resilient economy, are going to be inflationary in the short to medium term.

What’s the cost of something if you actually have a real price on carbon, and then you have to tally in how much it costs to tote it over tens of thousands of miles from the South China Seas? What’s the cost if you have proper environmental and labor standards? ...This is the conversation happening right now. And once you start pricing all those costs in, and you start really thinking of the economy in a different way, then yeah, it is certainly is inflationary..."


Foroohar then called on the U.S. and Europe to "put a price on carbon."

The analyst follows a relatively new trend among the political left and globalists in seeking to justify the existence of price inflation as a means to an end; the “greater good” being the induction of Green New Deal-style legislation.

Some propagandists in the media claim that the inflationary crisis is an opportunity, while others try to claim that climate change is the direct cause of inflation, and if we don't accept carbon taxation then we will continue to suffer under an inflationary collapse. But we all know what the game is here: To use public fears of financial disaster to lure people into accepting authoritarian environmentalism because “Prices are already high anyway, so why not?”

Even NASA and the NOAA openly admit that average global temperatures have only increased 1 degree Celsius in the past century. Yes, that's 1 degree we're supposed to be terrified of. Keep in mind that the official temperature record used by climate scientists started in the 1880s, so when the NOAA says that a recent temperature was “the hottest on record,” they are using a scale of a little over a century. That's a tiny sliver of time in the vast weather history of the Earth.

Global%20Temp%20History1_1.png


In fact, the Earth today is rather cool compared to the numerous warming periods of the past, and these spikes in heat coincided with thriving expanses of life. And, no man-made carbon emissions either. There is zero proof that man-made carbon is the cause of the Earth's current warming cycle.

Climate scientists, who receive large sums of money through funding as long as they toe the party line, argue that man-made carbon can be the only cause of climate change because “carbon rises as temperatures rise.” In other words, correlation = causation. This is not real science. They make no mention of the fact that warming also tends to lead to more life on the planet, and thus more carbon.

The facts of Earth's climate history are generally ignored for the sake of ideology. We are meant to believe that all those other warming periods were different, and this time warming (minimal warming) is caused only by car exhaust and industrialized cow farts?

Perhaps it is no coincidence that inflation is being exploited by Green ideologues and globalists as an excuse for carbon taxes? Maybe that was the plan all along?

High prices in gas force the public into mass transportation and less independence (only rich people will be able to afford electric cars). The public will be priced out of meat in their diet and be forced into vegetarianism/veganism (laboratory produced proteins lack the fats and fatty acids the human brain needs from real meats to function properly). The public will be priced out of private property and owning a home, forcing them into mass housing systems. They will be priced out of most retail goods, forcing them to accept the “Shared Economy” model created by the World Economic Foundation. And, they might be priced out of the economy altogether, forcing them to accept Universal Basic Income and total dependency on the government, not to mention having a family would be impossible, so the population control agenda is served as well.

The inflation issue is a panacea, but only for globalists and Green cultists, which is probably why they can barely contain their excitement when discussing it.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
Nah, stick them in a time machine and send them back to Pol Pot's reign of terror.

Or send them back in time to experience the megafauna of the cretaceous, just so that they can research heightened CO2 effects...
Or just strip them of their political power and ignore them; they're egotistical enough that would probably be the most painful thing we could do to them.
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
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BlackDragon98

Freikorps Kommandant
Banned - Politics
What narrative just got blown up?
That inflation is caused by the Russo-Ukraine War.
all those sanctions are hurting us more than the Russians.

Ruble's doing crazy Ivans, and they're selling less oil for higher prices.

I really need to go there and see what sort of secret Soviet magic they've got working over there.

Like this is some Baba Yaga and Koschei the deathless level magic here
 

DarthOne

☦️
Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why



BY DON LEE
STAFF WRITER
JUNE 22, 2022 8:44 AM PT
WASHINGTON —

Whether it’s President Biden insisting a recession is avoidable or his critics arguing that the wolf is at the door, both sides are acting as if the nation faces an unprecedented catastrophe.

Partly it’s political theater — Biden fighting on behalf of an already beleaguered presidency and many of the doomsayers hoping a downturn could be the coup de grace for Democrats.

Behind the rhetoric, the reality is that recessions are a normal part of American economic life. The U.S. has had one, on average, every 6½ years since 1945.

And in the present case, most professional economists think any downturn now is likely to be relatively mild, with a fairly quick recovery.

“We’re calling for a small ‘r’ recession,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. “It means it’s not going to be protracted and things aren’t going to fall apart,” as they did during the Great Recession and again in 2020 when the pandemic struck.

Many households are flush with cash, and jobs are plentiful with demand for new workers strong. Banks are well capitalized, which gives them a solid buffer against a business contraction.

What may be different this time is the public’s state of mind, coupled with a handful of unusual factors — first among them the grinding war in Ukraine.

For most Americans, the pandemic and its accompanying economic upheaval came after an extraordinarily long period of relative economic stability.

The economy was not growing much and real incomes were stagnating, but unemployment was low among most population groups, prices were stable, interest rates were at rock bottom and stores were flooded with low-cost goods made overseas.
Most people had adjusted to the status quo.

So the COVID-19 downturn hit like a thunderbolt, and the outbreak of inflation — driven largely by consumers suddenly beginning to spend their pandemic-induced savings — was another jolt to popular expectations.

Now, economic indicators look primed for a recession. The broad-based Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is down more than 20% since its high Jan. 3. U.S. consumer confidence has sunk to record lows, thanks largely to high inflation. Retail spending, home-building and manufacturing output all declined last month.

And consumers, who drive the U.S. economy, are starting to cut back on discretionary purchases, things such as appliances and services.

Tom Straus, owner of Straus Carpets in Oakland, has seen a sudden drop-off in orders for new flooring jobs at homes in the San Francisco Bay Area. Typically his commercial business includes about $1 million in projects for schools during the summer; such orders so far this year total just $30,000.

“Our future work is diminishing,” he said.

Many other leaders of businesses, small and large, as well as workers, are bracing for harder times, with fears stoked by the Federal Reserve’s plans for more fat interest rate increases to combat high inflation.

“We’re skating on the edge of recession, especially with the Fed bringing out these big guns,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at the financial market research firm Fwdbonds.

Larry Summers, Harvard economist and former Treasury secretary, notes that whenever inflation tops 4% (it was more than double that in May) and unemployment drops below 4% (it was 3.6% last month), that’s an indication of an overheating economy that in the past has always brought recession within a year or two.

Whether inflation is avoidable, the real question may be: How bad and how long will the next downturn be?
And on this score, there is greater consensus among experts that it’ll probably be nothing like the most recent episodes.

One common definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, that is, shrinking gross domestic product. But an official designation is made by a nonprofit research organization, which looks at a broad set of data and declares a recession, usually months after it’s begun.

The Great Recession that began in late 2007 lasted 18 months — the longest in 90 years — and was also one of the deepest. Millions of Americans lost their jobs and homes after the real estate bubble burst and large banking companies cratered. The unemployment rate shot up to 10%.

The pandemic-inflicted recession in 2020 was the shortest on record, just two months from peak to trough, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. But the sudden collapse in the economy was unparalleled as businesses across the country closed and consumers sheltered in place for weeks. Some 22 million jobs evaporated between February and April that year.

The rebound since then has been fast and strong, largely because of unprecedented government aid to households and businesses. Several rounds of stimulus checks helped boost consumer spending and demand, contributing to higher inflation. Much of that money hasn’t been spent yet, which will provide a cushion for many households.

Americans overall had excess savings of $2.7 trillion in the first quarter, according to Moody’s Analytics’ calculations based on Fed and other government data. Although more than half of that was held by households in the top 10% of income, those in the bottom 20% had on average about $5,700 more cash in hand than they otherwise would have without the federal aid and the effects of the pandemic.

Those extra savings, along with historically low household debt and loan-servicing burden — many homeowners locked in low mortgage rates before the recent increases — suggest that most people are better positioned financially and could help make the next recession milder.

At Bank of America Institute, economist David Tinsley saw a noticeable uptick in BofA customers using their credit cards last month, as was the case at many banks. High gas prices, he says, are hitting lower-income families hard and also cutting into spending for goods.

But looking at BofA customers’ savings deposits and checking account balances, Tinsley said, “households continue to have high buffers relative to before the pandemic.”

For John Barone, 58, the difference between where he was on the eve of the Great Recession and today is like night and day.
In 2007, he was running his own home renovation business in Baltimore, making payments on a $1-million loan. When the housing market crashed, he laid off 20 workers and eventually lost his business, his home and his wife.

Today Barone and a business partner operate out of Washington, D.C., giving tours with their seven golf carts. His business debts are modest — $32,000 in bank loans for two electric vehicles. Barone has seven seasonal workers and lives modestly in an apartment on Capitol Hill. “I don’t have a car, don’t have to buy gas,” he said. “I go to the day-old bread shelf and buy my bread for half price.”

Barone is more sanguine than most. Nationally, small-business owners were asked last month by the National Federation of Independent Business how they see conditions over the next six months. The result was the lowest reading in 48 years.

At larger companies, a May survey of 750 top executives by the Conference Board found that more than 60% of them see a recession coming or already here. Both surveys, however, suggest employers aren’t sure what that may mean as far as employment and potential for layoffs.

Many employers are still struggling to fill job vacancies and could be reluctant to let go of workers right away. The jobless rate stood at 3.6% in May, a notch above the half-century pre-pandemic low, and there are still nearly two job openings for every person officially unemployed.

New unemployment claims, a proxy for layoffs, have been edging higher in recent weeks but remain low by historical standards. Job growth in May was the slowest in 12 months, but still a robust 390,000.

“Of course we’re slowing down, but let’s remember how fast we had been growing,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago.

One thing that worries Tannenbaum is the risk of knock-on effects from the Fed’s move to jack up interest rates. The pivot has already taken a big bite out of the U.S. housing market, but the tightening by the Fed and other central banks could also slam developing countries and the global economy as investors reshuffle funds. That could circle back to drag down the U.S.
Economists say the Fed misread the threat of inflation and was slow to abandon its easy-money policies, but it’s now racing to catch up and raise its benchmark interest rate aggressively to cool demand and slow growth, including in the job market.

“I think they’re seeing it like the worst of two worlds — either stagflation or recession,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S.
economist at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services. Stagflation — a condition of high inflation and stagnant activity — plagued the economy in the 1970s and ended only after the Fed raised interest rates high and drove the economy into a deep doubled-dip recession in the early 1980s.

“My belief is that in order to avoid stagflation, I think they would risk the economy and go for the recession rather than suffer stagflation for however many years,” Bovino said.

Jeffrey Korzenik, chief investment strategist at Fifth Third Bank in Tampa, Fla., said the country will avoid a recession, barely, largely because of the strength of the labor market.

He figures the Fed’s tightening will create more layoffs but said, “We have so many openings, it’ll be easier to get workers recycled into the job market. It’s not bulletproof, but it means the economy is less likely to fall off a cliff.”


I see we've arrived at the 'Yes, X is happening, but it's a good thing' stage.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why






I see we've arrived at the 'Yes, X is happening, but it's a good thing' stage.

The recession was envitable.

The babyboomers started retiring in mass this year, most of the industrial world does not have a replacement generation. Thus the entire global economy is now pretty much fucked.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
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