Could the Estado Novo have ended in the late 1940s, 1950s, or 1960s, and would it have caused earlier decolonization?

[raharris1973]

Could the Portuguese Estado Novo, the Salazar dictatorial regime, have ended in the late 1940s, 1950s, or 1960s, and would it have caused earlier decolonization, something that perhaps that goes at the pace of French, British, and Belgian decolonization? And what might the internal societal consequences and economic consequences and relative strengths of different parts of the political spectrum in Portugal in an earlier reopening to democratic competition?

Let's imagine for example that the dictatorship goes down in favor of democratic competition (at least for a time, hopefully permanently and not replaced by another round of authoritarianism or totalitarianism, right or left) any time between 1947 and 1962. If it happens in the later period, between 1958 and 1962, would Portugal be likely to hold onto its colonies like OTL until 1975, get out a little earlier, or alot earlier?

 

[raharris1973]

Imagine the regime ends and transitions to democracy in 1958-1960. Then, in line with the other democracies of the time (France, Britain, Belgium), Portugal engages in a decolonization process in Africa slated to completed by no later than 1964. However, in anticipation of independence, Marxist and non-Marxist factions (which already existed) start arming and vying for power in places like Angola and Mozambique. With Cold War proxy struggles and vacuums heating up at the same time in Africa and Southeast Asia, how do the US, Soviets, and Chinese divide up their efforts? Any differently from OTL?

 

[stevep]

Imagine the regime ends and transitions to democracy in 1958-1960. Then, in line with the other democracies of the time (France, Britain, Belgium), Portugal engages in a decolonization process in Africa slated to completed by no later than 1964. However, in anticipation of independence, Marxist and non-Marxist factions (which already existed) start arming and vying for power in places like Angola and Mozambique. With Cold War proxy struggles and vacuums heating up at the same time in Africa and Southeast Asia, how do the US, Soviets, and Chinese divide up their efforts? Any differently from OTL?

Well in that scenario its happening earlier and possibly in a similar time period to the Cuba crisis, assuming that still occurs. The west hasn't moved toward detente so are likely to be more aggressive in supporting anti-communist forces. Plus S Africa and in a short period of time Rhodesia [probably] are going to be about - although the latter could have problems if Mozambique is in chaos or a democratic Portugal is supporting the blockade of it.

As such your likely to see more western action to support friendly factions so possibly a UNITA [or equivalent] victory in Angola? Not sure about Mozambique as don't know what forces were waging war there.

 

[raharris1973]

Well in that scenario its happening earlier and possibly in a similar time period to the Cuba crisis, assuming that still occurs. The west hasn't moved toward detente so are likely to be more aggressive in supporting anti-communist forces. Plus S Africa and in a short period of time Rhodesia [probably] are going to be about - although the latter could have problems if Mozambique is in chaos or a democratic Portugal is supporting the blockade of it.

As such your likely to see more western action to support friendly factions so possibly a UNITA [or equivalent] victory in Angola? Not sure about Mozambique as don't know what forces were waging war there.

It also competes with Vietnam and Laos for attention, and can link into the Congo troubles next door.