you're absolutely right that there must be a recognized & real threat.The key to all this is 'credible threat'
Trash talking while playing X-box live is not a credible threat.
A bunch of old men sitting in rockers on their porch talking tough is not a credible threat. If they have guns in their hands, that changes.
This is directed more at Indyfront than you, but:
If a man says 'Kill all the X' passionately, that has free speech protection, though I'd hope law enforcement would be noting that person is someone to look out for.
If that same man says 'Kill all the X,' while right in front of an X person, and has a gun in his hands?
Yeah, that's gone from 'free speech' to 'credible threat.'
If I'm a Jew, and a group of military-age males say they should make October 7th happen again, well, I'm going to take them at their word. If I was armed, and my family was behind me, it'd be very likely that I'd make sure those men never get the chance to go anywhere and find weapons.