Looking at the political situation in the European countries of 1293, where these 1493 port cities find themselves:
Palos de Frontera ends end in the Castille of Sancho IV
Sancho IV of Castile - Wikipedia, Before Sancho IV dies, to his delight and surprise, he is told that he is also the proud owner of
Las Islas Canarias in the western sea. He is scheduled to die within two years, leaving his son
Ferdinand IV of Castile - Wikipedia as King, starting of under the regency of his mother.
The contemporary Emir of Granada was
Muhammad II of Granada - Wikipedia
Sagres and Faro show up in the Portugal of
Denis of Portugal - Wikipedia. King Denis soon learns to his surprise and delight he is owner of the Acores, Cape Verde, and Madeira islands, and multiple African coastal outposts. Even a port and fortress in Ceuta, although it may be vulnerable in moments of surging Moroccan strength.
A key difference between Iberia, mainly Castille and Aragon (Spain) of 1493 and 1293 is far less prevalent and dominant antisemitism, and a much larger openly practicing Jewish community. I had been wondering, which, if any of these 1493 port cities housed a printing press by that year, because obviously, 1293 Europe, nor the rest of the world, had mechanical printing presses. It turns out, as modest as the town likely was, Faro Portugal had a printing press by 1487, so at least that town brings back working press to the word two centuries earlier. Unfortunately for general distribution of written works, it was a Hebrew printing press, know for production that year of the
Faro Pentateuch - Wikipedia. However, there is a possibility the shop might have had multi-lingual type by 1493. At least it demonstrates the mechanics. Although if it is the sole examples, getting replacement parts and supplies could be quite a challenge for tech continuity and propagation.
Nantes and Brest end up in the land of Philp IV of France
Philip IV of France - Wikipedia , or more properly, his vassal, Yann II, Duke of Brittany
John II, Duke of Brittany - Wikipedia.
Bristol is in the England of King Edward I, 'Longshanks'
Edward I of England - Wikipedia. In contrast to the Spain and Iberia of his day, Edward had just expelled all English Jews except for a small number of converts, in 1390, three years before.
The Hague is in the County of Holland. And this 1493 coastal town, while not some big metropolis it later became, is by far 1293 Holland's largest population center. The local Count is John I, to be succeeded soon by his cousin John II, both of minor houses.
John I, Count of Hainaut - WikipediaJohn II, Count of Holland - Wikipedia. But this is medieval times, and vassalage relationships are complicated. The Counts of Holland owed fealty at this time to the Wittelsbachs of Bavaria and Palatinate. And of course, last they remember, the town authorities of The Hague owed fealty to the Habsburgs. Well the leading Habsburg of the new century they find themselves in is Albrecht of Austria. On top of him of course, they are subject to the Holy Roman Emperor of the day,
But there was no consensus Emperor at this time, since it was the Great
Interregnum (Holy Roman Empire) - Wikipedia. The nominal elected King of King of Germany and the Romans, but not Papally sanctioned Emperor, was Adolf of Nassau
Adolf, King of the Romans - Wikipedia, and after 1498 by
Albert I of Germany - Wikipedia of Habsburg
Regarding which of the eight 1493 towns come back with printing presses, I will say, we can safely call out Faro, Portugal, and Nantes, Brittany as having printing presses, with at least the press at Nantes certainly having Latin script type, even if Faro does not. I think odds would strongly favor The Hague having a printing press as well by 1493, given the ubiquity of spread of the press in the Netherlands, even if it isn't on my specified list of six (of 21) towns having presses by 1483.
Global spread of the printing press - Wikipedia. But, it is likely, from an absence of attestation, England lack a press, Brest in Brittany lacks one, Spain lacks a press, and Portugal lacks one in Sagres.
......In overall Euro-Mediterranean matters, Castille is leading the other Spanish Kingdoms, aside from Navarre, Aragon, and Portugal, in sort of a federation, but Leon and Galicia still formally exist. The lesser kingdoms to Castille though never restore an independent policy. Granada is usually under Castilian vassalage, occasionally flirting with the Moroccan Marinids. The English and French are not quite in the Hundred Years War, but the English King owns Gascony and Aquitaine, and is formally vassal to the King of France. The HRE, as mentioned, is going through its interregnum, and there's dynastic switching going on. The Habsburgs will get a turn as Emperor starting in 1298, but they are not yet at the point of getting all the turns, every generation. The Luxemburgs I think will be due to get some later turns.
The last of the mainland Holy Land Crusader states were just wiped out - Acre, in 1291. The island castle of Ruad, off Syria's coast, would be evacuated about a decade later. Westerners kept talking Crusade and corresponding with Ilkhanids for another decade about Crusade plots, until the Ilkhanid converted to Islam in the early 1300s. Here, if the Portuguese, remembering the Bartolomeu Dias route, and the Diogo Da Cao letters, could easily press on trying to do the full Cape route to India, or include a leg of that trip to send an emissary to the Ilkhans, still seeking an alliance. The Ilkhans would be impressed by Portuguese technical skill and the remarkable geographic revelation, if nothing else, and if their Muslim subjects don't simply murder any Portuguese delegation.
The Portuguese, and Castilians would certainly have interest in 'round Africa' trade to get around Venetian and Genoan and Mameluke mopolies for trade with India, the Indies, eventually China, possibly Persia. Columbus would believe he's found a stepping stone directly west to the Great Khanate. In addition to simply soon hearing sailors accounts from other sailors living and working out of Portugal and Castille and at some point, the Acores, sailors and fishermen from Bristol, Plymouth, Brest, Nantes, and the Hague will be hauling in notable fish catches from far away, that should fetch good prices and attract others in this time of high population, indeed overpopulation and reduced margin of food security. And the existence of a few towns on Europe's west coast with printing presses, should spread printed works, and then press technology itself, throughout the increasingly populated and urbanized Europe of circa 1300. Among the things described, as print becomes available, will not only be Bibles and Torah and Pentateuch, but also accounts of oceanic discovery to the west and around Africa.
Some men and sailors in crews or townspeople in the ISOT'ed towns will lose their sanity about the time change, while most will get over it, focusing on survival, once they get a few good beatings, Church scoldings, or exorcisms. But a few, especially with good memories for historic or weather events, might go around and risk selling themselves as Nostradamus-like prophets, seers, and fortune-tellers, looking to make some money or fame that way. It could bring some money to a few, but can be a precarious and dangerous game.
As noted before, West European, South Asia, East Asian shipborne trade contacts is going to accelerate the spread of the Black Death to Europe by a decade or two or a little more in advance of 1348, although the disease *might* hit a population slightly less weakened by malnourishment if Atlantic fisheries are being consistently exploited on a larger scale from 1293 onward.
I think Portugal under King Denis can begin to follow an exploratory career and a colonizing career much like OTL. Its territory was already whole by this point. It will face some higher number of home peninsular distractions. After the plague hits, it will have a smaller population, and smaller markets to support its adventures. And on the far ends, in the centuries ahead, Indians, Chinese, Japanese, and Middle Easterners will have more time in their warring states eras and the late Yuan and early Ming eras to react against some of the Portuguese technologies and counter them. And Europe, other than the printing press, does not have all the same fueling resources to really get 200 years faster to the industrial revolution, even if trade and some overseas conquest, including some plantation systems extract some usable wealth surpluses. Also, the Portuguese will not have the same scale of land arms and artillery manufacturing complex to purchase weapons from in the 1290s as in the 1490s.
I also think that Castille/Spain can 'walk and chew gum at the same time'. It can follow up on the Columbus voyages with more voyages, conquer the West Indies, and eventually Mesoamerica, while still occasionally dealing with wars on the home peninsula and revolts. A difference might be Granada might actually do a couple projects of its own. Like the Portuguese, the Black Death should slow them down some, but they should have gotten a start.
The Bretons and the English will start searching the North Atlantic for fish, for precious metals, once they hear of Spanish finds, and take to piracy. The French Kings will likely try to get some cut of the Breton action in the Atlantic. Furs probably will not be as valuable, because northern and eastern Europe are not as hunted out yet. Some groups of people might be motivated to move to North American outposts, even if they are not finding gold, during plague times, simply to escape plague, or because of domestic strife, or if they are participating in heresies like Lollardry.
A difference in Iberian colonization under 1293 circumstances is that despite the extreme antisemitism of many knowledgeable 1493 Castilian mariners, Franco-Breton mariners, and many of the Portuguese mariners, their surrounding Duchies and Kingdoms are not really supportive of it. As of 1293, only England has done a blanket Jewish-expulsion. So the Portuguese, Castilians, and Breton French, are much less likely to have a 'keeping the colonies pure for the Catholic religion' policy like they did in OTL policy. Due to pragmatic economic considerations, Jewish merchants will probably participate in colonial trading and colonization ventures by these states as they spread, even if there are expulsions decades or centuries hence. Even as of 1493, Portugal had done a Jewish expulsion, nor excluded Jews from colonization, only increasingly coming under Spain's thumb accomplished that policy shift, and it is not likely to happen for a while longer in this ATL.
