Alternate History China - no Deng reforms, does not join global economy

[Buba]

How would the world's economy look like today without China reforming? Imagine it staying on .. maybe not NORK level - but not very relevant. Maybe something on Indonesian scale?
This boils over into how does the world look like in general, I suppose. Think of all the China arse licking in movies or game for instance. Top of mind - Ep.VIII of SW - would we have the Chinese looking girl(s) there? Or Catay in Warhammer Total War III ...

 

[gral]

I think one of the biggest winners here is Mexico - it will absorb a substantial part of the US outsourcing here(I don't think China not reforming would be enough to avoid the outsourcing movement).

 

[Buba]

(I don't think China not reforming would be enough to avoid the outsourcing movement).

I agree - this is not a question of IF but WHERE.

India is top candidate for outsourcing, but it needs to ditch the License Raj. Without Deng reforms - how far and/or fast does India reform? And as we are on reforming - how does Vietnam move without Chinese example?
So, other destinations besides Mexico - Brazil? Indonesia? Phillippines? Turkey? Algeria? Egypt? Pakistan? Bangladesh? Post 1990 Central/Eastern Europe to even greater degree?

 

[gral]

So, other destinations besides Mexico - Brazil? Indonesia? Phillippines? Turkey? Algeria? Egypt? Pakistan? Bangladesh? Post 1990 Central/Eastern Europe to even greater degree?

Chile might be an excellent option, IF they start early(in the late 70s/early 80s, the same time period China established their Special Economic Zones). Brazil will get some of it(Mexico and Chile would be be seen as better prospects), but the greatest boon for Brazil is not having the Chinese industry sector driving away the Brazilian one from the international markets. As for the other mentioned countries, I'd say yes to all except for Algeria and Egypt, at least in the beginning - the Algerian Civil War will drive people away from the former, and I don't see that much of an interest in Egypt for outsourcing industry before the 2000s(when their population starts really growing).

Another thing that I've just thought of: without China, people would look for countries closer to the US and Europe as the great untapped consumer markets - Africa, the Promised Land for Western industry?

 

[Buba]

@gral I missed there being an Algerian Civil War ...
How about Syria?

As to Chile - true that orderly and with well educated population - but not too small? Pretty much same applies to Uruguay on the other side of the continent.

Sadly Africa is a shambles, most of it run by a mix of semi-literate cleptokrats, cannibals, criminals and communists (Q: how did Buba manage to get banned on SV?). I don't see any outsourcing going there. Besides SA. Maybe if there is an inflow of capital and jobs then the details of the end of Apartheid are different? Would the NP leadership be smart enough to capitalise on this?

 

[Yinko]

My guess is Indonesia and Pakistan. India is too politically chaotic, both of of the big Muslim countries were dictatorships at the time and so would have been better poised to shift their entire economy into international production.

The consequences for culture, probably pretty small. There are some things that were added to appeal to the Chinese market, but a lot of things that were removed apply just as well to the international market at large. Gay representation would be banned in most countries, if they had the power to push that through. Also, films like Transformers would be just as popular overseas because they sell based off of their action and not any plot points they may or may not have.

 

[Marduk]

I agree - this is not a question of IF but WHERE.

India is top candidate for outsourcing, but it needs to ditch the License Raj. Without Deng reforms - how far and/or fast does India reform? And as we are on reforming - how does Vietnam move without Chinese example?
So, other destinations besides Mexico - Brazil? Indonesia? Phillippines? Turkey? Algeria? Egypt? Pakistan? Bangladesh? Post 1990 Central/Eastern Europe to even greater degree?

Yeah, the same places that are competing with China now, but more. SEA in general, ex-WP, South America, Mexico, India and so on. India won't get much of the boost because their terrible bureaucracy and infrastructure make other options from the list more attractive.

My guess is Indonesia and Pakistan. India is too politically chaotic, both of of the big Muslim countries were dictatorships at the time and so would have been better poised to shift their entire economy into international production.

China specifically got the outsourcing because it loosened up state control over economy. Pakistan is also pretty politically chaotic, dunno about Indonesia , but boy that's a lot of civil wars in XX century.

 

[Buba]

Indonesia is big. Like 2M square kilometres big. And Java - where half of the population lives and is the single most important island, is 125km2 (five Belgiums, one England, 1/3rd Germany ...).
The various insurgencies are localised, limited to lesser islands or parts of them (e.g. Aceh is a small part of Sumatra).

 

[Agent23]

I think one of the biggest winners here is Mexico - it will absorb a substantial part of the US outsourcing here(I don't think China not reforming would be enough to avoid the outsourcing movement).

Various Oceania and Indochina countries, maybe Eastern Europe, Mexico, other parts of Latin America and India if it stops with its own socialist bullshit it was IIRC still doing at the time.
And a slower process of outsourcing overall, methinks.

 

[gral]

@gral I missed there being an Algerian Civil War ...

That's OK, 500,000 other people missed at least part of it...

About Chile, yes, it's small, but they were following the same Chicago School economics that China did in the SEZs. So economic conditions were similar, that's why I thought of them. As for Africa, I didn't mean a place for outsourcing industry, but merely as a consumer market.

 

[raharris1973]

To the extent Mexico and Brazil and other Latin American countries fill a vacuum left by lesser Chinese availability/suitability to be a globalized manufacturing and assembly platform, could the growth of the formal manufacturing sector and all the formal subsidiary industries and related employment 'crowd out' any significant share of the 'informal' and criminal-run sectors of the economy controlled by drug cartels, reducing the level of violence people need to live with on average?

If Pakistan or Egypt, who I honestly have more doubts about, do more of this vacuum-filling in the absence of a reformed China, do those countries grow more, form larger, more practical economics-oriented middle classes, and have more to live for than jihad and ethnosectarian violence, with a reduction in insecurity, terrorism violence compared to OTL?