Battle of Navarino is a decisive Ottoman Victory

[Chiron]

The battle in question

Lady Luck decides to make the Ottoman's her pet that day and their opening volley demasts the entire European Fleet and knocks out their main guns and the Ottomans force their surrender shortly afterwards. 10 ships of the line and 10 frigates are taken as prizes and the rest are sunk.

Ottoman losses are 181 killed and 480 wounded. European losses are total and the survivors sold into slavery.

Funny thing about all of this is Codrington exceeded his orders and this fight was the last thing the British wanted, they thought the Ottomans would say our bad and back off, there would be cash under the table and the Russians would back off.

Your guess is good as mine as to what the British Government was smoking in Whitehall when they thought this plan up, but it sure was some good shit. Unfortunately for them, they dragged the French and Russians into it. And they are understandably a little pissed. And no a spot of tea isn't going to soothe this over.

Well, hopefully Wellington knows what to do.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Brits do what they always did when they got their nose bloodied in the 19th century, they double down and extract vengeance.

 

[TheRejectionist]

Brits do what they always did when they got their nose bloodied in the 19th century, they double down and extract vengeance.

Agreed. They formed many coalitions against the Frenchman, the Ottoman will be a walk in the park.

 

[Chiron]

Brits do what they always did when they got their nose bloodied in the 19th century, they double down and extract vengeance.

We here in America say hi, Brits how well did your last shooting spat go with us.

Brits: Walk over elsewhere.

Well that said, their goal isn't to get the Ottomans out of Greece, but have an autonomous Greek vassal under the Ottomans. Which wound up not working as they wanted it to as the Ottomans were taking too long to crush the Greeks and the new Tsar is a little impatient.

Wellington's main goal is to not let the Russians get control of the Baltics. He distrusts the French. But Britain is also on the verge of breaking out into riots. So likely result is he simply blames everything on Codrington, the French, and Russians, and washes his hands of it to deal with internal British Affairs while switching support back to the Ottomans over the Greeks which was the prior policy. Ironically the defeat may even play to his favor with him pointing out that going off half-cocked got the nation humiliated and this shit needs to be thoroughly thought through before they act.

France isn't going to go to Greece without Britain's buy in and if they drop the matter, they do so as well.

Which just leaves the Russians who are now alone with a demoralized Greek Revolt that is surrendering with the Allied Defeat. The Tsar may still launch his expedition, but with the Ottomans victorious at Navarino, they can shift enough reinforcements to check the advance. The war then ends with Greece once again pacified and the Ottomans are not merciful.

 

[PsihoKekec]

We here in America say hi, Brits how well did your last shooting spat go with us.

It ended with Brits kick US forces out of Canada and burning down the White House to convince the damn colonials to stop invading Canada. So based on that we probably see the redcoats collecting voluntary contributions to the British Museum in Constantinople, thus hastening the demise of the Ottoman Empire.

 

[Chiron]

It ended with Brits kick US forces out of Canada and burning down the White House to convince the damn colonials to stop invading Canada. So based on that we probably see the redcoats collecting voluntary contributions to the British Museum in Constantinople, thus hastening the demise of the Ottoman Empire.

The Brits were kicked out of Louisiana and their attempts to form puppet Indian States were destroyed and the tribes in question wiped out. British forces in Florida were evicted and Spain decided to take a payment and slink away. US fishing rights in St. Lawrence were granted.

And each day the US got stronger, hence the Duke of Wellington telling the British Government to cut its losses, make no territorial demands other than Canada be kept while the US has a free hand against the Indians.

Hence the war ended, the Duke knew it would not go well even if he went in person as the British Government wanted him to go.

With the Duke coming in 1828 and a more realistic outlook, he pulls the French aside and tells them its not in their interest for Russia to be loose in the Balkans, slips some money under the Table, and they back off. Gets some vaguely worded assurances from the Sublime Porte to hold up in Parliament and tells the Russians they are on their own.

Codrington gets pilloried and character assassinated and public opinion turned against him for exceeding orders and getting good men killed. Labor unrest does the rest and the Public forgets about it all.

 

[WolfBear]

We here in America say hi, Brits how well did your last shooting spat go with us.

Brits: Walk over elsewhere.

Well that said, their goal isn't to get the Ottomans out of Greece, but have an autonomous Greek vassal under the Ottomans. Which wound up not working as they wanted it to as the Ottomans were taking too long to crush the Greeks and the new Tsar is a little impatient.

Wellington's main goal is to not let the Russians get control of the Baltics. He distrusts the French. But Britain is also on the verge of breaking out into riots. So likely result is he simply blames everything on Codrington, the French, and Russians, and washes his hands of it to deal with internal British Affairs while switching support back to the Ottomans over the Greeks which was the prior policy. Ironically the defeat may even play to his favor with him pointing out that going off half-cocked got the nation humiliated and this shit needs to be thoroughly thought through before they act.

France isn't going to go to Greece without Britain's buy in and if they drop the matter, they do so as well.

Which just leaves the Russians who are now alone with a demoralized Greek Revolt that is surrendering with the Allied Defeat. The Tsar may still launch his expedition, but with the Ottomans victorious at Navarino, they can shift enough reinforcements to check the advance. The war then ends with Greece once again pacified and the Ottomans are not merciful.

So, what ultimately ends up happening? Greek autonomy under Ottoman rule, as with Bulgaria after 1878?

 

[Chiron]

So, what ultimately ends up happening? Greek autonomy under Ottoman rule, as with Bulgaria after 1878?

Revolt crushed in Morea, Greeks in Morea are executed or sold into slavery largely based on age and sex, loyal Greeks convert to Islam, Muslim settlers placed in Morea.

 

[WolfBear]

Revolt crushed in Morea, Greeks in Morea are executed or sold into slavery largely based on age and sex, loyal Greeks convert to Islam, Muslim settlers placed in Morea.

So, no Greek autonomy at all?

 

[Chiron]

So, no Greek autonomy at all?

Nope the Ottomans were winning at this point and a decisive victory at Navarino means fresh reinforcements arrive from Egypt to finish the job. This also means the French Morea expedition doesn't occur.

So the 1st Greek Republic dies in Morea and the Ottomans permanently solve the issue via mass demographic change.

 

[WolfBear]

Nope the Ottomans were winning at this point and a decisive victory at Navarino means fresh reinforcements arrive from Egypt to finish the job. This also means the French Morea expedition doesn't occur.

So the 1st Greek Republic dies in Morea and the Ottomans permanently solve the issue via mass demographic change.

Would the European Christian Great Powers actually be prepared to stomach this, though?

 

[Chiron]

Would the European Christian Great Powers actually be prepared to stomach this, though?

Tsar Nicolas I wouldn't but he was alone. Britain and France only entered in because Nicolas' father who they convinced to back off, died. They were willing to throw the Morean Greeks under the bus after they massacred civilians first and invited Ottoman retaliation in the process.

A defeat in such a humiliatingly fashion with Wellington coming into power and the King not wanting an actual weak Ottoman state, will get them to back off.

Tsar Nicolas I will then have to contend with a strong Ottoman Army instead of weak outposts when he comes the following year with strong British pressure to back off.

 

[WolfBear]

Tsar Nicolas I wouldn't but he was alone. Britain and France only entered in because Nicolas' father who they convinced to back off, died. They were willing to throw the Morean Greeks under the bus after they massacred civilians first and invited Ottoman retaliation in the process.

A defeat in such a humiliatingly fashion with Wellington coming into power and the King not wanting an actual weak Ottoman state, will get them to back off.

Tsar Nicolas I will then have to contend with a strong Ottoman Army instead of weak outposts when he comes the following year with strong British pressure to back off.

Why did the Morean Greeks massacre civilians?

And minor nitpick, but Tsar Alexander I was Nicholas I's elder brother, not father. It's a common mistake to make considering that there was a 19-year age gap between the two of them.

 

[Chiron]

Why did the Morean Greeks massacre civilians?

And minor nitpick, but Tsar Alexander I was Nicholas I's elder brother, not father. It's a common mistake to make considering that there was a 19-year age gap between the two of them.

1. Take your pick of reasons. But mostly to stop any hint of irredentism. Instead of you know just going with the live and let live policy the Ottomans had and which the US via the 1st Amendment has.

2. Yeah a gaffe on my part.

And thinking further with such a back slap to the Europeans, Muhammad Ali will be able to use the street cred to remove the House of Osman in a Palace Coup as he will be in position and leave the European States with a Fait Acompli.