What if Austria goes to war against Russia during the Crimean War? Just how successful would it have been in this war? And what if Austria would have made it an explicit war aim to not only drive Russia out of Wallachia and Moldavia, but also to outright annex these territories for itself? Would Austria have succeeded in doing this? This would mean no independent Romania in the 19th century, of course, but what additional effects would it have had? Any thoughts on all of this?
Austria goes to war against Russia during the Crimean War
- Thread starter WolfBear
- Start date
Well IIRC the growing threat of this was something that helped prompt the Russians to come to terms, as well as their defeats in the south and a British threat to St Petersburg. Which was not well received OTL given Russian aid to Austria less than a decade before in helping suppress the Hungarian uprising. If they did go to war then assuming Bismarck still gains influence in Germany - which may not be the case - then the Austro-Prussian war is going to be even more of a curb stomp as Russian will be out for revenge and could end up establishing a puppet Romania including Transylvania. Either way I wouldn't like to be Austrian the next time they go to war with another great power with the bear glaring at them from the east.
Can't remember but weren't Wallachia and Moldavia still at least Ottoman controlled at this point? If not and Austria annexes them then what happens to them? Making them part of the kingdom of Hungary would be the obvious step but that would make it even more powerful while at the same time diluting the Magyar element even further and probably making more links between then and Transylvania.
raharris1973
Well-known member
If Austria joins the anti-Russian coalition, what is to keep the Polish frontier entirely peaceful? Might this war encourage a Polish uprising, or the Austrians perform an invasion of Congress Poland, where the local populace would likely receive them more favorably than the Russian occupiers? Could Austria collect all of Congress Poland? Or, if it reclaims its 1795 partition share, would Prussia feel compelled to reclaim its share of the 1795 Polish partition from Russia?
By that point, would war on Russia be the catching fad in Europe, making the Swedes feel compelled to declare war on Sweden, to reclaim Finland at minimum, or more ambitiously Ingria and Livonia?
By that point, would war on Russia be the catching fad in Europe, making the Swedes feel compelled to declare war on Sweden, to reclaim Finland at minimum, or more ambitiously Ingria and Livonia?
If Austria declared war and Russia didn't make peace quickly I could see unrest in Poland, whether Austria wanted it or not. However that is likely to make some in Vienna cautious as they would realise what the Poles really want is independence or at least a large measure of major autonomy. Which is likely to include their own Polish subjects. Unless their willing to set up a Polish kingdom, possibly with an Hapsburg ruler this is going to cause the problems.
Furthermore unrest in Poland is going to upset Prussia as it would be concerned about its own Polish lands. It definitely wouldn't want any sort of Polish autonomous region let alone an independence state. As such I can't see things getting too far in Poland before the three occupying powers come to some deal to suppress it.
Sweden declaring war on Sweden would be pretty epic lol!
Anyway, Sweden taking Ingria would leave St. Petersburg completely surrounded by Swedish territory plus the Baltic Sea, no?
What exactly is the problem with Vienna giving the Poles a large measure of autonomy, like they would do with the Galician Poles later on?
Internally not too much possibly although it would mean more Slavs, possibly a lot more. Mind you that might not be as important in the mid 1850s'. However it would make the Poles especially a 3rd nation in the empire and could upset the internal balance of power, depending on how much of Russian Poland it took over. Plus the Poles did want independence so any relief at moving from Russian to Austrian rule would probably be short lived.
I think the big problem would be with Prussia, both because its likely to see it as a bad example for its own Polish minority and also it would, if Austria took over the entire region put the Austrians very close to Berlin as well as putting Silesia in a very exposed salient. As such I think Prussia would put pressure onto Austria to avoid such a situation.
If they didn't then Austria, even if enlarged somewhat, has earned the emnity of Russia - especially after Russia helped Austria suppress the Hungarian revolt in 1848-49 - and also at least the concerns of Prussia which even without hindsight is a difficult position.
Question for you, Steve: What exactly would Austria have gained (as in, which territories) if it would have entered the Crimean War on Russia's side?
Sorry about the late response.
To be honest while I've read that Austria was nudging towards war against Russia I'm not sure about why or what they intended to achieve by doing so. Checking the wiki entry for the crimean war it talks about a possibility of Prussian hostility towards Russia but not Austrian - or at least as far as I can see. Although there are comments that Austria wanted a harsher peace that finally agreed. Rather weird.
Why was Prussia hostile towards Russia back then?
raharris1973
Well-known member
Ironically, Prussia's main beef with Russia at that time, would have been or should have been Russian support for Austria's traditional leadership over the German Confederation, and opposition to the Prussian led Erfurt Union scheme.
raharris1973
Well-known member
I think the main thing Austria would have wanted would have been annexation of satellitization of the the Danubian principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia.
"Annexation or satellitization", right? Anyway, direct annexation sounds very attractive, but would Austria also get Black Sea access or not? I also wonder how this would affect internal A-H borders post-Ausgleich, since this would make Austria's borders within A-H even funkier after 1867 or whenever.
Why did Russia support Austria over Prussia?
raharris1973
Well-known member
pro-status quo bias
Prussia was viewed as an upstart, eh? That makes sense. In fact, it made sense ever since Freddie the Great started a war to conquer Silesia just a couple of months after he wrote that aggressive wars were unjustified.
Nemets's tweet - "Frederick the Great published a book arguing that war was bad & only justifiable if defensive, then invaded Silesia three months later. He mocked his foreign office’s elaborate historical justification for the invasion since he didn
Detailed Tweet Analytics for Nemets's tweet - internal, nimitz, frederick
www.trendsmap.com
raharris1973
Well-known member
Well I'm not saying that continuity of Russian status quo bias in favor of Austria over Prussia had perfect continuity going back to the 18th century. Sure, Russia sided with Austria during the Silesian Wars aka War of Austrian Succession and 7 Years War, but Tsar Peter flipped sympathy to Prussia. During much of the Napoleonic period Russia was closer to Prussia, and favored it at the CoV and Polish-Saxon Crisis.
But certainly in 1848-9 and for the reign of Tsar Nicholas I, status quo bias relative to the German order, which favored Austria, was a very real thing.
What does CoV stand for?
raharris1973
Well-known member
yes- the Congress of Vienna