ASB WI: 1914 Central Powers Member States ISOTed to 1956

[TheRomanSlayer]

I played this scenario a long time ago, but it's going to be an ISOT forward, not backward. So here goes:

What if the Central Powers members as of July 27, 1914 (Germany, Austria-Hungary) had been ISOTed to 1956? More precisely, the date of October 23, 1956, when the main phase of the Hungarian Uprising occurs?

The Central Powers in this scenario would be stunned to see that they've traveled far into the future, where their bolt action rifles would be no match for the Cold War era weapons. Heck, the tank wasn't even invented yet, and those two ISOTed states aren't exposed to the horrors of trench warfare and chemical weapons. Also, as a result of the ISOT, both Germanies are reunited, but under Wilhelm II (it might be awkward for downtime Wilhelm II to see his grandchildren and great grandchildren all grown up). The Hapsburgs are still in power at this point, but a huge chunk of Poland would be lost, meaning that the OTL communist Polish dictatorship would be a lot smaller territorially. The Soviet Union would not have Bukovina and Galicia, thanks to the ISOT as well.

 

[Agent23]

The Warsaw Pact and Yugoslavia steamroll zhe Germans and undertakes more territorial expansion.

Some productive capacity and valuable human resources are lost, but that does not change the situation.

If anything NATO and the West probably lose more, since all their assets in Germany have been ISOTed away.

 

[Buba]

Interesting
The USSR lost ALL the troops it had in GDR, Austrian Occupation Zone, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and most of those in Poland. Plus large part of Carpathian Military District and whatever was in Kaliningrad. That's a LOT and proly most of better equipped and/or higher readiness troops, both ground pounders and VVS. Baaad!

There is no Yugoslavia, only a cut down Serbia and Crnagora + Macedonia and Kosovo.
Romania also is missing half the country and military ...
The Warsaw Pact and COMECON are gutted at birth.

If NATO reacts fast enough - even with France being "excited" over losing A-L again - it should be capable of persuading the USSR to keep to its new borders. The Soviets are not a true nuclear power yet.
Of course, NATO just lost all US troops forces in Europe and large part of flyboys, the British and French occupation forces plus the Bundeswehr. But let us be optimistic

 

[Buba]

The ISOTed CP are an incredible boon for the Free World. These two democracies (no need to denazify!) jointly have 120M people with vibrant economies and infrastructure untouched by wars. The A-H drives on the left side of the road, but such an anomaly can be easily corrected.
There is potential for much profit to be made bringing them uptodate.
If propped up by some UT troops and airforces these two countries will stave off the USSR very nicely.
There will be centrifugal forces at play but, with the lessons of the interwar period and WWII in mind, the Uties should not foster cancers like e.g. the Czech nationalists or Great Serbia Yugoslavia pushers, hence I'd expect internal stability.

Unintended consequence - no "Holocaust reparations" extortion racket.

 

[Sobek]

The sheer confusion might buy the CP states some precious time and save them from horrendous defeats by superior firepower.

 

[Buba]

The sheer confusion

I agree.
BTW - will there be a race to Poronin - a mountain resort village in Galicia - between forces wishing to kill or extract the XXth Century's Greatest Calamity, i.e. Lenin?

 

[WolfBear]

BTW - will there be a race to Poronin - a mountain resort village in Galicia - between forces wishing to kill or extract the XXth Century's Greatest Calamity, i.e. Lenin?

Yep, absolutely!

Also, one thing worth mentioning: Israel might be very pleased by the influx of all of these additional Jews, many of whom perished in the Holocaust in real life. I wonder just how many of them would want to move to greener and wealthier pastures in Israel as opposed to staying in their home countries due to sheer loyalty. I think that the Jews in 1914 Germany, Austria, and Hungary are going to be extremely shocked when the 1956 world, especially Israel, will tell them that their countrymen and their descendants subsequently turned on them and murdered them and/or their descendants en masse!

 

[Agent23]

Interesting
The USSR lost ALL the troops it had in GDR, Austrian Occupation Zone, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and most of those in Poland. Plus large part of Carpathian Military District and whatever was in Kaliningrad. That's a LOT and proly most of better equipped and/or higher readiness troops, both ground pounders and VVS. Baaad!

There is no Yugoslavia, only a cut down Serbia and Crnagora + Macedonia and Kosovo.
Romania also is missing half the country and military ...
The Warsaw Pact and COMECON are gutted at birth.

If NATO reacts fast enough - even with France being "excited" over losing A-L again - it should be capable of persuading the USSR to keep to its new borders. The Soviets are not a true nuclear power yet.
Of course, NATO just lost all US troops forces in Europe and large part of flyboys, the British and French occupation forces plus the Bundeswehr. But let us be optimistic

The USA and the various other occupation forces also lost their equipment and soldiers in Germany.

In the 1950s, the French Army had been responsible for helping defend the area where West Germany, Austria, and Czechoslovakia met, the least dangerous area in West Germany. Consistent with the "Weser-Lech" concept at the time, their defense positions were located well in the rear areas about one-half the distance between the inter-German border and the Rhine River. When NATO's forward defense concept was moved forward, the French declined to shift their defense positions into the frontal zone. In 1963, the French declined to assign their Army's newly created First Corps to NATO (the already-existing Second Corps remained under NATO command).

NATO's peacetime posture by this time was beginning to approach the 30-division level that had long been mandated by official force goals for a nuclear strategy. But the Germans now insisted that the new doctrine would require 35-40 divisions. France's withdrawal from NATO's integrated military structure in March 1966 complicated NATO's defense plans by removing, on paper, several divisions that were important to the conventional defense. Although France remained in the Alliance itself, NATO's forces, headquarters, and logistic facilities in France were compelled to leave French soil. Meanwhile French forces were entirely removed from assignment under SACEUR's command.

To this we can add all of the various colonial rebellions, like the French Indochina war and the Korean war were raging or about to fire off.
Between the massive loss of forces in Germany and the still unmended damage of WWII I think that the situation is not as rosy for the westerners.

 

[WolfBear]

The USA and the various other occupation forces also lost their equipment and soldiers in Germany.


To this we can add all of the various colonial rebellions, like the French Indochina war and the Korean war were raging or about to fire off.
Between the massive loss of forces in Germany and the still unmended damage of WWII I think that the situation is not as rosy for the westerners.

I also think that mentally it would take the people of Germany and A-H a while to adjust to this new situation. They're also going to think "God, what kind of fools were we in sparking World War I in the first place?"

 

[ATP]

I agree.
BTW - will there be a race to Poronin - a mountain resort village in Galicia - between forces wishing to kill or extract the XXth Century's Greatest Calamity, i.e. Lenin?

To be honest,soviet leaders would prefer dead Lenin.....so,imperialist dogs killed him,let avange comrade Lenin and take Berlin?

 

[Buba]

To this we can add all of the various colonial rebellions, like the French Indochina war and the Korean war were raging or about to fire off.

1956
- Korea - concluded
- Indo-China - concluded
- Israeli aggression against Egypt - not yet, it is to happen next week
The Brits and French have their intervention forces in the Med, well positioned to come with Injustice League Assistance to their fellow oppressors of National and Class Liberation aspirations, the Evul! and Doomed to Collapse ('cause materialist dialectic says so this week) semi-feudal peasant girl raping Austro-Hungary ...
- Algeria is just starting

 

[Agent23]

I agree.
BTW - will there be a race to Poronin - a mountain resort village in Galicia - between forces wishing to kill or extract the XXth Century's Greatest Calamity, i.e. Lenin?

Everyone will want to get at him, to make sure he is dead.
Neither side has use for a dead symbol coming to life, especially the soviets.

1956
- Korea - concluded
- Indo-China - concluded
- Israeli aggression against Egypt - not yet, it is to happen next week
The Brits and French have their intervention forces in the Med, well positioned to come with Injustice League Assistance to their fellow oppressors of National and Class Liberation aspirations, the Evul! and Doomed to Collapse ('cause materialist dialectic says so this week) semi-feudal peasant girl raping Austro-Hungary ...
- Algeria is just starting

Facepalm, why did I thought op said 1950...

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Yeah, 1956.

That being said, downtime Austria-Hungary would look like paradise, compared to a truncated communist Yugoslavia (basically quasi-Greater Serbia at this point)

 

[WolfBear]

- Indo-China - concluded

Not for long since the Vietnamese Communists will soon begin infiltrating their people into South Vietnam.

Yeah, 1956.

That being said, downtime Austria-Hungary would look like paradise, compared to a truncated communist Yugoslavia (basically quasi-Greater Serbia at this point)

At least once Austria-Hungary's economy will catch up to present-day levels.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Downtime Germany and Austria-Hungary would see their economies boom with aid from NATO, and the European Coal and Steel Community is just starting up at this point. However, it might be awkward for downtime Germany and Denmark because of Schleswig-Holstein.

Communist Romania on the other hand, would not be happy that they lost Transylvania to the downtime Hapsburgs, but couldn’t do anything about it. However, the Soviets might actually target the Austro-Hungarian Empire for such shenanigans, like giving support to the downtime Slavic minorities of the Hapsburg dynasty. Ironically though, the USSR without Galicia and Bukovina might benefit more from an absence of the hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism. Conversely, the downtime German Empire could approach NATO with the idea of sponsoring the ongoing Baltic rebellion against the Soviet government.

 

[WolfBear]

Conversely, the downtime German Empire could approach NATO with the idea of sponsoring the ongoing Baltic rebellion against the Soviet government.

Very risky when the Soviet Union already has nuclear weapons, no? And I expect the Soviet Union and its remaining eastern satellite states to keep their borders highly closed since over time people there are likely going to be desperate to move to either Germany or A-H.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

The Baltic’s had a rebellion that happened throughout the 1950s. Forest Brothers rebellion, I believe.

 

[WolfBear]

The Baltic’s had a rebellion that happened throughout the 1950s. Forest Brothers rebellion, I believe.

Yes, but it's still risky for foreign powers to intervene in it due to the USSR's nukes.

 

[Buba]

The Baltic’s had a rebellion that happened throughout the 1950s. Forest Brothers rebellion, I believe.

That was not a rebellion, but WWII holdouts/post war partizans.

 

[ATP]

Downtime Germany and Austria-Hungary would see their economies boom with aid from NATO, and the European Coal and Steel Community is just starting up at this point. However, it might be awkward for downtime Germany and Denmark because of Schleswig-Holstein.

Soviets lost their army in germany and partially Poland - but,they still could invade.
Since they must kill Lenin in Poronin anyway/they do not need him alive when they had mummy/ ,they could send sthugs to kill him,blame A-H and germany,and invade.There is good chance that USA would do nothing.

That was not a rebellion, but WWII holdouts/post war partizans.

Just like in Poland.And they hold as long as ours.