Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

True,but soviets have smart commander,like Koniew,not only butchers like Zhukow.Sralin would simply relieve those butchers from their commands,and eventually win.
Germans would still be bombed by USA,and could not send all dyvisions from France to fight soviets.
He didn't relieve them OTL and replacing them after they've gotten his army depleted isn't going to bring those soldiers back to life.

And even if the RAF is bombing, there's no serious invasion threat without the US. Everything can't be sent east -- even if the UK sued for peace something has to stay in occupied France to keep it occupied -- but a lot more than OTL can.

There are also fewer raids because as you noted a couple posts down you meant UK and the US isn't bombing. Even if American bombs accomplished nothing at all, intercepting the bombers increased the rate at which the Germans burned through aviation fuel and once the American daylight raids had fighter escorts increased their pilot losses. That fuel and those pilots are available either to further oppose RAF bombing or for operations against Russia.
 
'AHC: Have Polish Holocaust losses be "only" be as they were in the Ukrainian SSR's 1938 borders. So, slightly less than half of all Polish Jews are murdered in the Holocaust as opposed to 90% like was the case in real life.'
 
'AHC: Have Polish Holocaust losses be "only" be as they were in the Ukrainian SSR's 1938 borders. So, slightly less than half of all Polish Jews are murdered in the Holocaust as opposed to 90% like was the case in real life.'

Germans could kill 90% of polish jews,becouse jewish elites there cooperated with germans from 1939,giving list of assimilated jews to them and helping massing them in getto.Initialy/in 1940/ they were treated better then poles - but in 1942 germans decided to genocide them,when almost all was arleady in gettos ruled by jewish elites with jewish police helping germans.
All germans need was take jews delivered to them by jewish police and send to death.

On Ukraine part of jews run with soviets,other hiden in villages where germans practically do not enter.Unless ukrainian UPA kill them there,they were mostly safe.There was no bif groups of jews delivered by jewish authorities there.
 
Poland lost half of its territory,not gained anything.

It gained the Recovered Territories.

Germans could kill 90% of polish jews,becouse jewish elites there cooperated with germans from 1939,giving list of assimilated jews to them and helping massing them in getto.Initialy/in 1940/ they were treated better then poles - but in 1942 germans decided to genocide them,when almost all was arleady in gettos ruled by jewish elites with jewish police helping germans.
All germans need was take jews delivered to them by jewish police and send to death.

On Ukraine part of jews run with soviets,other hiden in villages where germans practically do not enter.Unless ukrainian UPA kill them there,they were mostly safe.There was no bif groups of jews delivered by jewish authorities there.

bif? You mean big, right? Anyway, FWIW, almost all of the Ukrainian Jews who ended up under Nazi rule in 1941 ended up being murdered in the Holocaust. The ones who fled survived, unless of course they were subsequently killed in action in WWII.
 
It gained the Recovered Territories.



bif? You mean big, right? Anyway, FWIW, almost all of the Ukrainian Jews who ended up under Nazi rule in 1941 ended up being murdered in the Holocaust. The ones who fled survived, unless of course they were subsequently killed in action in WWII.

1.Still we do not get Lebensraum,only was partially compensated for what sralin stealed.
2.Those jews who run from town was mostly murdered by ukrainians on their own,so technically it was not Holocaust,becouse germans have nothing to do with it.
 
1.Still we do not get Lebensraum,only was partially compensated for what sralin stealed.
2.Those jews who run from town was mostly murdered by ukrainians on their own,so technically it was not Holocaust,becouse germans have nothing to do with it.

1. This compensation counts as Lebensraum, especially considering that few Poles lived in most of it beforehand, other than of course Masuria and Upper Silesia. And AFAIK most of the Masurian Poles emigrated starting from 1956, when they began being allowed to do so.

2. AFAIK, the Holocaust refers to the mass murder of European Jewry during WWII regardless of whether Germans/Nazis, Romanians, Ukrainians, Hungarians, Frenchmen, et cetera did it.
 
1. This compensation counts as Lebensraum, especially considering that few Poles lived in most of it beforehand, other than of course Masuria and Upper Silesia. And AFAIK most of the Masurian Poles emigrated starting from 1956, when they began being allowed to do so.

2. AFAIK, the Holocaust refers to the mass murder of European Jewry during WWII regardless of whether Germans/Nazis, Romanians, Ukrainians, Hungarians, Frenchmen, et cetera did it.

It would count as lebensraum,if we get more then soviet take.Or at least entire East Prussia.Since we lost more,including territories with polish oil industry,it was not lebensraum,but poor compensation.
 
It would count as lebensraum,if we get more then soviet take.Or at least entire East Prussia.Since we lost more,including territories with polish oil industry,it was not lebensraum,but poor compensation.

You got Stettin as compensation for not getting northern East Prussia.
 
'AHC: Prevent the US population shift from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt over the last several decades'
Most comprehensive way to reasonably ensure this is to have the South secede successfully. The CSA will basically become the Mexico to the Rump-USA. Even if industry still gets off-shored there, well... you don't see alot of migration from the USA to Mexico in OTL, do you? You won't see a lot of migration from the USA to the CSA in the ATL, either.

Alternatively, have the USA move towards economically protectionist policies in the second half of the 20th century, and make these policies stick. The industrial regions stay active, and since all the infrastructure is already there, the jobs stay there. Incentives to move elsewhere are substantially reduced as a consequence.
 
Sigh ... the CSA becoming a banana republic one of the irritating inevitable "must happens" in ATLs.
IMO it may just as well develop economically neck-to-neck with the USA.
I have serious doubts about that. There are good reasons why it's considered near-inevitable.

Mind you, a scenario where the USA splits up earlier, under different circumstances, will have a considerably different outcome. Even a scenario where the North just says "okay, bye" and fights no war over it is likely to seriously affect the future of the seceded states. (Although this almost certainly means just the Deep South leaves, which has its own effects...)

The secession as we know it, however, was the product of a decades-long build-up, producing entrenched attitudes and a "healthy" dose of sunk cost fallacy.

Moreover, the number of slaves had gone up and up as time passed, which correspondingly reduced the chances of (relatively) easily bringing about any kind of well-ordered gradual abolition. Note also that the CS Constitution explicitly forbade the CS states from ever abolishing slavery on their own, which makes the issue even more difficult.

Likewise key to the course of an independent South is that the slavocrats had assumed complete political control, and they had every interest in maintaining the CSA as a primarily agricultural country. I think this will change over time, but socio-politicial inertia works against that change. The CS Constitution explicitly forbade the central government from dedicating means to any internal improvements: a universal ban on (con)federal infrastructure works. No interstate highways, no interstate railways network, no interstate canals. Not unless the states figure it out amongst themselves, ad hoc, which typically runs into far more problems (e.g. if one state suddenly refuses to play ball, holding a massive project 'hostage').

Finally, the lag in urban-industrial development and the spectre of ethnic tensions will keep most prospective immigrants away. For the typical European immigrant, the USA will be considerably more attractive. Non-European immigrants (who may have fewer options and thus be willing to accept any destination) are fewer in the near future of an independent CSA, and in any case... I think the CSA won't be too keen on them, being more than a little obsessed with racial matters.

These do not make for exceptional prospects. I'm not saying it'll be another Haiti or something, but suppose you put South Africa and Brazil in the magical country-mixing blender... the result will be a pretty accurate picture of what kind of country the CSA would become.
 
You got Stettin as compensation for not getting northern East Prussia.

Still not enough to compensate for loosing half of our country,with 2 out of 4 more important polish cities - Lwów and Wilno.
We do not get lebensraum,only was partially compensated.
 
From the end of end of the French and Indian war through the start of the American revolution, the Cherokee, Choctaw, Muskogee and Chickasaw peoples unify under a republican form of government, and at the end of his presidency Washington presents congress with a treaty of peaceful annexation of the Indian nation as the 14th state of the united states. The treaty is highly controversial, and becomes the dominant topic of the upcoming presidential election.
 
The CS Constitution explicitly forbade the central government from dedicating means to any internal improvements: a universal ban on (con)federal infrastructure works. No interstate highways, no interstate railways network, no interstate canals.
IIRC (i.e. not necessarily correctly) canals were exempt.
Nevertheless I'm fairly sure that the prohibition had to further commerce somewhere in it.
But the Govmint figured out a way around this provision during the war very quickly I've seen quoted that in OTL a Senator (Representative?) bitterly complained that "national security" allowed the Government to fund railways and basically anything it wanted.
Hence a post war transcontinental RR would receive Federal funding and be built to aid defence.

BTW - the CSA Founding Fathers (and their political mentors) had more than a 50% share in the running of the USA since the country was established - and they suddenly go all stupid?
 
IIRC (i.e. not necessarily correctly) canals were exempt.
Nevertheless I'm fairly sure that the prohibition had to further commerce somewhere in it.
But the Govmint figured out a way around this provision during the war very quickly I've seen quoted that in OTL a Senator (Representative?) bitterly complained that "national security" allowed the Government to fund railways and basically anything it wanted.
Hence a post war transcontinental RR would receive Federal funding and be built to aid defence.
In this recent thread (in which I also demonstrate quite clearly that I don't actually subscribe to the view that @Urabrask Revealed lampooned earlier), I argued that there would be very little logic in post-war revanchism from either side. Precisely because economic considerations would win out, there would soon be an "era of good feelings" (or if not good, then at least okay). This means that the excuse of using "emergency powers", "threat of war" or "vital defence" as a political excuse would evaporate.

The CS Constitution aimed to allow for (con)federal investment into... well, anything, really... only if it was absolutely critical for defence. So rather than an exception for canals, there was an exception that would (under reasonable peace-time conditions) allow the central government to build docks for the navy, for instance. But that would be about the limit.

We have to consider that the slavocrats were, by the nature of their economic set-up, always in debt. This is one reason why they struturally opposed all forms of direct taxation. And they'd be making the decisions in the CSA. So the idea of the CSA building a trans-continental railroad with (con)federal money can safely be dismissed. As soon as the war is over, the war measures (at least in a fiscal sense!) will be abolished immediately. Doing so is not just politically preferable to the ruling elite, it is a prerequisite for their economic survival. They only ever allowed (unprecedentedly) 'big government' during the war because that was perceived as the more pressing existential crisis.

But once that crisis is resolved? Right back to the old stand-by of "low tariffs, no other taxation ever, certainly no direct taxation, and the government should be very small... in fact, it should basically just be a police force that we control, thank you very much..."


BTW - the CSA Founding Fathers (and their political mentors) had more than a 50% share in the running of the USA since the country was established - and they suddenly go all stupid?
They were always opposed to centralism and to higher taxes. The great mentor of the men in question was Calhoun. Hey, what was he (in)famous for again? What's that? "Nullification Crisis"? Ah, yes! See there, the basis of the Southern Democratic political platform, clearly laid out.

They weren't stupid, they just had specific vested interests. As I mentioned, they were always in debt. Only under a low taxation regime could the plantations survive. Direct taxation would be crippling. This leaves indirect taxation, meaning tariffs. Which is nice, but those need to be low, too, because a plantation economy relies on export, so it only thrives by the virtue of a free trade regime...

You can see the obvious conclusions, I'm sure. You are thinking about the interests of a CSA that wants the best posible future for itself, and does the sensible thing when viewed from a long-term perspective. Because of this, you reject the idea that the CSA must become a backwards second-tier nation. Conversely, I am pointing out that the CSA was actually 100% under the control of an elite that served its own interests, which happened to be fully at odds with the long-term goal of effectively developing the country.

This means that in practice, the CSA was indeed doomed to become a backwards second-tier nation. An elite directly opposed to all the steps that are necessary for modernisation, paired with the presence of an ethnically distinct permanent underclass, is not a recipe for success. More like the opposite.

Again: South Africa meets Brazil. That's your CSA.
 

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