AHC: Successful US (and/or UK) non-belligerent containment of militarist Japan with a 1932 or later PoD

[Knowledgeispower]

I will note that the Japanese barely had the means to hit Pearl and doing so required them to quite literally have fuel drums on the hangar decks of at least two carriers and all the destroyers escorting them

 

[ATP]

I will note that the Japanese barely had the means to hit Pearl and doing so required them to quite literally have fuel drums on the hangar decks of at least two carriers and all the destroyers escorting them

Yup.If FDR do not send Pacyfic Fleet from USA to Hawaii in 1940,they could do nothing.But - he need pretext to war,and change american public opinion on war.
If Japan was smart,they would attack only dutch india.USA public woud never go on war over it.But they do not undarstandt how american public opinion think,and that FDR is provoking them becouse he could not attack first.

 

[Airedale260]

Anthony Sutton Wall Street and bolshevik revolution.
Basically,they pay Trocky to get with his thugs to Russia/he,not Lenin win there/ later take almost all of tsar gold for weapons and luxury food,later did the same with gold stolen from churches,and finally Sralin sell grain taken from genocided farmers.
And thanks to that soviets made big manufacturies of weapons which let them start WW2.With comrade Hitler help.
Who was paid by Wall Street,too.

And if you think that USA made embargo becouse of China,then why they waited with that till Hitler backstabbed his soviet allies ?

I’m still not convinced but I’ll have to track down the book, read it, and render a judgment.

Incidentally, and I mean this quite sincerely, I do appreciate you actually giving me a source to check out. Too often I ask for one and just get told to fuck off.

 

[raharris1973]

@Airedale260 - Actually some respectable, non-conspiratorial historians do credit a Soviet connection to the timing and intensity of FDR's embargo actions at the time. I recommend looking anything up by Waldo Heinrichs: 17. The Russian Factor in Japanese-American Relations, 1941

I think ATP is frothing about under the misconception that FDR was making decisions for the benefit *of the Soviet Union* because he *especially liked the Soviet Union*. It's actually simpler than that, and closer to what you say here:

nobody in the U.S. gave a shit at all about the USSR prior to that, except insofar as they were keeping the Nazis (seen as a much bigger threat) busy.

FDR in 1941 thought the Russians were the perfect tool he needed to soak up bullets from the Germans and pump bullets into the Germans - he really didn't want the Japanese to mess with that plan. No more, no less.

 

[ATP]

I’m still not convinced but I’ll have to track down the book, read it, and render a judgment.

Incidentally, and I mean this quite sincerely, I do appreciate you actually giving me a source to check out. Too often I ask for one and just get told to fuck off.

He is interesting dude - working for USA in archivum he discovered that USA is giving soviets technology.Before they fired him,he discovered enough documents to prove not only that USA help create soviets,but supported them at least till he was fired.
In other book he proved that Hitler was financed by USA,too.

Wchich lead him to belive that USA is ruled by conspiracy trying to take over our freedom/which is at least partially true/ and that part of it is skull&bones society.Which probably is not true.But - he wrote about that,too.

 

[raharris1973]

I’m not sure what these things are, but one also needs to factor in the political situation as well. In the 1930s, the U.S. public wasn’t really on board with a massive military buildup. Getting dragged into World War I (as the public saw it) had been a complete waste. Between not wanting another fight and domestic concerns far outweighing any foreign policy considerations (read: nobody was really interested in spending money on defense until a clear threat had emerged, which didn’t occur until 1939-1940) meant that, while IN THEORY this graph might have been correct, meant that in reality, it was never going to happen.

What happened was that the U.S. thought they could pressure the Japanese, because any war the Japanese started would only end in one way given the disparities in economies, industry, and research. What they didn’t take into account was that the Japanese leadership was a bunch of complete fucking idiots and the infinite capacity of human stupidity.

That still leaves the option of *delaying* the embargo until the US defense buildup is further along, even if we assume no earlier build-up is possible.

It's also possible to question your argument that no one was interested in defense spending before a clear threat emerged. There had long been a Congressional lobby for a fleet build-up, as much to support industry and jobs, as for any war fighting purpose. The Roosevelt Administration for most of the 1930s consistently tended to pare down naval increase requests, at times in an effort to balance the budget that ended up hurting the economy and hurting him politically.

Forget about getting into any wars for the benefit of foreign countries in Europe (like WWI) and Asia. All that aside. there's an argument in the 1930s for a a stronger U.S. Navy and Army simply to be able to protect the U.S. territory, it's own consensus sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere, and its own set of imperial possessions that extended far west into the Pacific as far as the Philippines.

Like it or not, the Philippines and Guam just aren't that far from Japan, who's regularly ravaging China by 1937, after dabbling in it earlier in the decade.

I can imagine the poster images the pro-Navy lobby could conjure when making arguments for the newspapers, public, and Congress, showing unemployment lines (without the fleet) turning into busy assembly lines (with the fleet), showing stereotyped menaced bespectacled, wild-eyed Japanese soldiers leering over the wall at the Philippines at what's supposed to be American hospitals schools with cute Filipino kids and pretty blonde American teachers (without the fleet), contrasted with that same picture protected macho muscled sailor men on steel ships (with the fleet).

 

[The Unicorn]

1.Japan starting atrocities in China since 1937/Nankin rape/ ,but USA started embargo AFTER soviets was attacked by germans.Which mean,that they redirected Japan from attacking soviets to attacking USA.

Open hostilities between Japan and China began in 1937, I don't know when the atrocities becan, but the first one there was proof the Japanese government knew about and was complicit in (as opposed to some indiviual officers, who'll be tried and punished by the Japanase authorities) ommitting attrocities was when they took Nankin in December 1937. US Embargo on Japan started in July 1,1938. Taking into account time needed to get the evidence, present it to policy makers, several cycles of escelating talks, drafting a proposal to put before congress, and everything involved with getting that voted on, that is not an unreasonable timeline.
Japanese attack on Russia was in September 1939(arguably incidents started in May of that year), i.e AFTER the US started employing sanctions against Japan.

THe US sanctions had NOTHING to do with the soviets. THat said, there's a solid argument they also had nothing to do with humanitarian concerns, but rather with Japanese attacks on US citizens and US property. If we assume that is true, then it might be possible for the US and Japan to have reached an accommodation

SNIP MESSED UP QUOTES

You've got some quote boxes screwed up there. It's difficult to figure out what you're saying and what you're responding to.

1.You do not undarstandt what you read.
Pacyfic fleet was send to America,becouse they knew that carriers could hit Hawaii.Then in 1940 FDR send Pacyfic fleet to Pearl again,so japaneese could hit it.In America they were save.

If you have any evidence to support this screwy conspiracy theory please present it.

3.Soviets air forces sucked - fact.Baku and other refineries could be easily destroyed - fact.Soviet was army of slaves who would surrender if they could - fact.

No, not fact, speculation with no basis. However granting this for the sake of argument:
1)Any evidence people at the time knew this?
2)Why didn't the Germans destroy these fields if it was so easy to do? And Remember they were much closer to those fields than American forces.

It may have only required a better balanced US approach, not letting US State and Treasury Department demands and pressures of the moment get beyond the capabilities of the War and Navy Departments at the time.

Keep in mind, at least some of the US pressure on Japan was because of how it treated US property and US citizens in and around china. While this does mean that in theory an agreement was possible if Japan tried, it also suggests the main issue was Japanese attitude towards the US, not some percieved "weak flank" in the US, or US demands from Japan.
Heck, if the Japanese hadn't fired on lifeboads of the USS Panay the American public might not have cared nearly as much about other stories of Japanese atrocities.

I will note that the Japanese barely had the means to hit Pearl and doing so required them to quite literally have fuel drums on the hangar decks of at least two carriers and all the destroyers escorting them

IIIRC it also requires several technological developments that were required to let them actually do any significant damage when they arrived.
Something with slowing down the torpedoes so they wouldn't hit the bottom of the bay, and a couple of other modifications to the planes.

 

[ATP]

Open hostilities between Japan and China began in 1937, I don't know when the atrocities becan, but the first one there was proof the Japanese government knew about and was complicit in (as opposed to some indiviual officers, who'll be tried and punished by the Japanase authorities) ommitting attrocities was when they took Nankin in December 1937. US Embargo on Japan started in July 1,1938. Taking into account time needed to get the evidence, present it to policy makers, several cycles of escelating talks, drafting a proposal to put before congress, and everything involved with getting that voted on, that is not an unreasonable timeline.
Japanese attack on Russia was in September 1939(arguably incidents started in May of that year), i.e AFTER the US started employing sanctions against Japan.

THe US sanctions had NOTHING to do with the soviets. THat said, there's a solid argument they also had nothing to do with humanitarian concerns, but rather with Japanese attacks on US citizens and US property. If we assume that is true, then it might be possible for the US and Japan to have reached an accommodation

You've got some quote boxes screwed up there. It's difficult to figure out what you're saying and what you're responding to.

If you have any evidence to support this screwy conspiracy theory please present it.

No, not fact, speculation with no basis. However granting this for the sake of argument:
1)Any evidence people at the time knew this?
2)Why didn't the Germans destroy these fields if it was so easy to do? And Remember they were much closer to those fields than American forces.

Keep in mind, at least some of the US pressure on Japan was because of how it treated US property and US citizens in and around china. While this does mean that in theory an agreement was possible if Japan tried, it also suggests the main issue was Japanese attitude towards the US, not some percieved "weak flank" in the US, or US demands from Japan.
Heck, if the Japanese hadn't fired on lifeboads of the USS Panay the American public might not have cared nearly as much about other stories of Japanese atrocities.

IIIRC it also requires several technological developments that were required to let them actually do any significant damage when they arrived.
Something with slowing down the torpedoes so they wouldn't hit the bottom of the bay, and a couple of other modifications to the planes.

1.Oil embargo started after german attacked soviets - and made Japan either surrender as superpower or attack USA,but they could not longer attack soviets.
Which mean,that USA fought for soviets,not USA or China.

2.FDR send Pacyfic fleet from USA to Pearl in 1940.It is not conspiracy,it is fact.And fired commander who opposed it.

3.American engineers was working there till 1940,so USA knew about that.
And germans wonted take Baku intact,not destroy.When they undarstandt that they never get chance,attack with fighter escort was no longer possible.
Moreover - german bomber operated at attitude 4000m,where soviet fighter had no problems.Attacking during day without fighters was impossible for germans.
American B.29 operated at 9000m,where soviet fighters could do nothing even if their pilots were good/they were not/

 

[The Unicorn]

1.Oil embargo

Was something like step 25 of the many steps the US took to censure Japan. The point is there were many steps before the Soviets were attacked, and several steps after. That doesn't mean there was any relation between the events.

2.FDR send Pacyfic fleet from USA to Pearl in 1940.It is not conspiracy,it is fact.And fired commander who opposed it.

Baseless assertion with no facts to back it up.

3.American engineers was working there till 1940,so USA knew about that.

Knew about it's existance? Sure. Knew they could take the field out easily? No way.

Incidentally, care to guess the CEP for a B29 flying at 9000m? There's a reason they had to descend to where German planes and air defenses could hurt them before they tried bombing anything, and even at those altitudes their accuracy was terrible.

 

[ATP]

Was something like step 25 of the many steps the US took to censure Japan. The point is there were many steps before the Soviets were attacked, and several steps after. That doesn't mean there was any relation between the events.


Baseless assertion with no facts to back it up.

Knew about it's existance? Sure. Knew they could take the field out easily? No way.

Incidentally, care to guess the CEP for a B29 flying at 9000m? There's a reason they had to descend to where German planes and air defenses could hurt them before they tried bombing anything, and even at those altitudes their accuracy was terrible.

1.Which happened when Japan could attack soviets and end them.Not when chineese was massacred.
2.facts are not assertion.Check where Pacyfic Fleet was before 1940,if you do not belive.
3.They do not accuracy for bombing Baku.even if they miss 1-2 km,they still hit some refinery,target is that big.And americans engineers actually talk about how easy target Baku is.
That is why british considered bombing it in 1940 - althought with Blenheims it would be impossible.
But - they send cyvilian plane to made photo,and soviets do not manage to shot it.They air forces was that "good"

 

[The Unicorn]

1.Which happened when Japan could attack soviets and end them.Not when chineese was massacred.
2.facts are not assertion.Check where Pacyfic Fleet was before 1940,if you do not belive.
3.They do not accuracy for bombing Baku.even if they miss 1-2 km,they still hit some refinery,target is that big.And americans engineers actually talk about how easy target Baku is.
That is why british considered bombing it in 1940 - althought with Blenheims it would be impossible.
But - they send cyvilian plane to made photo,and soviets do not manage to shot it.They air forces was that "good"

You're cherry picking facts taken out of context to invent your bizarre conspiracy theory with no historical basis, and can't seem to back them up when asked for cites.

As for missing by 1-2km still doing damage
1)I do not believe this is true. Yes the refinery facilities spread out over km, that does not mean that any bomb landing within 1km of the aiming point would his something valuable, much less that doing so would actually do serious damage to the facilities.
2)During WWII they would not have been able to achieve CEP of 2000m if dropping bombs from 9000m. They dropped to much lower altitudes to get what was considered "good" CEP of ~400m (i.e half the bombs landed within 400m of the target)

Daylight Precision Bombing | Air & Space Forces Magazine

A basic belief of the Army Air Forces was severely tested in the skies over Germany and Japan.

www.airforcemag.com

Again, if you have any evidence to support your assertions please provide it.

 

[ATP]

You're cherry picking facts taken out of context to invent your bizarre conspiracy theory with no historical basis, and can't seem to back them up when asked for cites.

As for missing by 1-2km still doing damage
1)I do not believe this is true. Yes the refinery facilities spread out over km, that does not mean that any bomb landing within 1km of the aiming point would his something valuable, much less that doing so would actually do serious damage to the facilities.
2)During WWII they would not have been able to achieve CEP of 2000m if dropping bombs from 9000m. They dropped to much lower altitudes to get what was considered "good" CEP of ~400m (i.e half the bombs landed within 400m of the target)

Daylight Precision Bombing | Air & Space Forces Magazine

A basic belief of the Army Air Forces was severely tested in the skies over Germany and Japan.

www.airforcemag.com

Again, if you have any evidence to support your assertions please provide it.

1.Pacyfic fleet was till 1940 in America becouse they knew that carriers could attack Pearl - but FDR send it into 1940 again
FDR waited with oil embargo till germany attacked soviets. That facts.

read Robert Stinnett " Day of Deceit:The truth about FDR and Pearl Harbour" who after 17 years of reasarching american archives
proved that USA not only provoked Japan attack,but also knew about it.

2.Then use B.29 in night,just like in Japan.Soviet night fighters was so "good" that during siege of Wrocław germans used Ju52 to support their troops there for few months.Soviets manage to schoot 5 of them during that time.
Or ask british for sending Lancasters.It would be even more efficient.

 

[The Unicorn]

read Robert Stinnett " Day of Deceit:The truth about FDR and Pearl Harbour" who after 17 years of reasarching american archives
proved that USA not only provoked Japan attack,but also knew about it.

I'll look at it, but if the US provoked Japan it had to have been prior to 1937 when the long chain of escalating incidents started.

For the rest of your claims, cite please.

EDIT: Managed to get an electronic copy of the book, the novel starts:

E

DWARD R. MURROW COULDN’T SLEEP. HIS WIFE, JANET, WATCHED him pace in their hotel room. He was chain-smoking. Murrow, the CBS radio newsman, had just returned from a midnight meeting with President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the White House. Japan’s carrier and submarine raid on Pearl Harbor had taken place twelve hours earlier, and the full impact of the military disaster was slowly sinking in for FDR and the American people.¹

During their twenty-five-minute discussion in the second-floor Oval Study, the President provided Murrow with something—we will never know exactly what—that any reporter would kill for. That night he told his wife, “It’s the biggest story of my life, but I don’t know if it’s my duty to tell it or forget it.” Long after the war ended, Murrow was asked about this meeting by author-journalist John Gunther. After a long pause, Murrow replied: “That story would send Casey Murrow through college, and if you think I’m going to give it to you, you’re out of your mind.”

and is printed by Simon & Schuster under the "Free Press imprint in 2000.
In other words it is at best a politically motivated dramatization of events, and more likely pure fiction.

 

[ATP]

I'll look at it, but if the US provoked Japan it had to have been prior to 1937 when the long chain of escalating incidents started.

For the rest of your claims, cite please.

EDIT: Managed to get an electronic copy of the book, the novel starts:

and is printed by Simon & Schuster under the "Free Press imprint in 2000.
In other words it is at best a politically motivated dramatization of events, and more likely pure fiction.

1.USA made oil embargo after german attacked soviets - it is fact,so i do not need citates.
2.FDR moved fleet from USA to Pearl Harbour, - it is also fact,so i do not need citation for that.

2.Author made reasarch in american archives,and used fact from that.That is what important.You must prove that he do not use archives,not me.

 

[The Unicorn]

1.USA made oil embargo after german attacked soviets - it is fact,so i do not need citates.
2.FDR moved fleet from USA to Pearl Harbour, - it is also fact,so i do not need citation for that.

2.Author made reasarch in american archives,and used fact from that.That is what important.You must prove that he do not use archives,not me.

You do need citations if you want anyone to believe your supposed facts, and the book you referenceis of very questionable value.
If you believe it have fun, but as I said it's an odd conspiracy theory with no support.

 

[ATP]

You do need citations if you want anyone to believe your supposed facts, and the book you referenceis of very questionable value.
If you believe it have fun, but as I said it's an odd conspiracy theory with no support.

Facts are not my facts,they are facts.You could check for yourself where was Pacyfic fleet in 1939/not Pearl Harbour/ and when USA made oil embargo/after soviet get backstabbed by their german allies/
And if you do not belive one book,i habe no obligation to add another.