AHC -- "Splendid Isolation", or: can we make a British sakoku happen?

[Skallagrim]

I think the problem is the nature of the neighbouring landmass. As S'task says there is a difference between a gap of ~120 miles compared to ~20 and also an also fairly isolated and weak Korea as the nearest neighbour compared to France and the Low Countries. Possibly even more so beyond that is China which various between chaotic civil wars and invasions and of unified power where however Kubli Khan aside never really looked eastwards towards the conquest of the Japanese islands. Instead Britain faces a divided continent with elements continually struggling for power and looking for ways, generally by conquest to extend that power. Furthermore its not just France and the Low Countries as the invasions prior to the Normans came from Scandinavia [Vikings] and prior to that N Germany [Anglo-Saxons]. Also if we're assuming the Americas are still discovered and Spain becomes the super power there's also a potential threat from there. As such its far more difficult to see an isolationist Britain being left alone, even if its intermittent raiders looking for slaves or loot.

Also with that narrow Channel being a major seaway your going to have problems with encounters with ships running into problems, especially if the weather forces ships onto British shores. After all one of the initial reasons the western powers forced some opening of Japan was to stop them executing sailors who were shipwrecked on their coastlines.

Coupled with this is that the Shogunate was able to impose a centralised government on Japan, which, apart from isolated Ainu groups are pretty much a unified culture and population. However Britain is split between 4 [at least and in earlier times more] nations and its more difficult to see them united in isolation. If nothing else say the Scots and Irish especially, if faced with an English led dictatorship are going to be eager to welcome foreign intervention to regain independence. The idea of any other group unifying the islands by force is vanishingly small, at least in a lasting way.

The final issue as Atarlost said is religious. Once Europe becomes Christian its centralising nature makes isolation very, very difficult. A Catholic Britain will want contact with Rome and the Papacy, or at least its clergy will, even more so if the temporal powers are seeking isolation. If Britain isn't Catholic but most of western Europe is there will be pressure for conversion. If say a later isolation, similar in dating to that of Japan, and most of Europe becomes Protestant your probably still going to have power struggles between factions which coupled with the factors above makes continued isolation by a British state very unstable I suspect.

Its an interesting idea Skallagrim but very, very difficult to see any attempt at an isolationist Britain to anything like the level or duration of the Japanese period being practical.

Solid analysis. I'm not convinced that it's as unpractical as you ultimately conclude (at least not with the right POD), but you do illustrate that probability is against long-term isolation.

Some considerations:

-- Everything that's noted in this thread strengthens my impression that we ought to seek for our POD at the close of the Wars of the Roses. Although my own inclination towards early ("structural") PODs leads me to enjoy thinking about a "no William the Conqueror" scenario, I can provide no guarantees for its ultimate outcomes. Conversely, a later POD (such an isolationist alt-Protectorate) has its own problems, primarily due to there already being colonies in the New World, which renders full isolation highly unlikely.

-- A scenario wherein Henry Tudor gets defeated, then Richard III is killed, and then various claimants (several backed by foreign powers) duke it out... only for a 'dark horse' candidate to seize power and respond vehemently to "these foreign interlopers"... is likely to get the best results. The timing also means that the continental powers will by busy with bigger issues for a good while in the subsequent period. Colonisation has yet to start. England has no real ties or obligations to the outside world. Meanwhile, the costly failure of the earlier attempt to meddle in the succession will have put many continental monarchs off the idea of trying to meddle in England again.

-- Viking raiders and stuff like that aren't really a concern in this period, and it may be assumed that piracy will target treasure fleets and the such in relation to Nw World ventures in the subsequent period. Isolationist Britain won't be a priority at all. If they also always put to death anyone stranded on their shores, that just makes it less attractive to ever approach Britain. Lots of risk, little reward.

-- I think England would be able to subdue Scotland and Ireland well enough. It'll take a series of wars, but that's hardly a first.

-- I don't envision the regime as being unusually dictatorial. Preoccupied with keeping outside influences at bay, and very... self-conscious, culturally, but (like Japan) not suddenly turned into a draconic tyranny.

-- Religiously, this kind of set-up obviously requires that the King who institutes all this also founds an ATL Church of England, separate from Rome, but not otherwise connected to the (soon-to-emerge) Protestantism on the Continent. It may in fact be Catholic in practically every way, except that the King is the head of the Church, and the Pope is ignored. (Although with the isolationist, anti-foreign motivation, a swerve to all-English liturgy would be likely, too.)

-- I wouldn't expect this isolation to last 264 years, as was the case in Japan, but I do think that a fairly lengthy period would be realistic if under the right circumstances. If it lasts for "merely" 50 years or so, from 1500 to 1550, that already dramatically changes history by avoiding OTL British influence on other countries. Personally, I think that something like a "closed century" should be achievable.

 

[ATP]

Solid analysis. I'm not convinced that it's as unpractical as you ultimately conclude (at least not with the right POD), but you do illustrate that probability is against long-term isolation.

Some considerations:

-- Everything that's noted in this thread strengthens my impression that we ought to seek for our POD at the close of the Wars of the Roses. Although my own inclination towards early ("structural") PODs leads me to enjoy thinking about a "no William the Conqueror" scenario, I can provide no guarantees for its ultimate outcomes. Conversely, a later POD (such an isolationist alt-Protectorate) has its own problems, primarily due to there already being colonies in the New World, which renders full isolation highly unlikely.

-- A scenario wherein Henry Tudor gets defeated, then Richard III is killed, and then various claimants (several backed by foreign powers) duke it out... only for a 'dark horse' candidate to seize power and respond vehemently to "these foreign interlopers"... is likely to get the best results. The timing also means that the continental powers will by busy with bigger issues for a good while in the subsequent period. Colonisation has yet to start. England has no real ties or obligations to the outside world. Meanwhile, the costly failure of the earlier attempt to meddle in the succession will have put many continental monarchs off the idea of trying to meddle in England again.

-- Viking raiders and stuff like that aren't really a concern in this period, and it may be assumed that piracy will target treasure fleets and the such in relation to Nw World ventures in the subsequent period. Isolationist Britain won't be a priority at all. If they also always put to death anyone stranded on their shores, that just makes it less attractive to ever approach Britain. Lots of risk, little reward.

-- I think England would be able to subdue Scotland and Ireland well enough. It'll take a series of wars, but that's hardly a first.

-- I don't envision the regime as being unusually dictatorial. Preoccupied with keeping outside influences at bay, and very... self-conscious, culturally, but (like Japan) not suddenly turned into a draconic tyranny.

-- Religiously, this kind of set-up obviously requires that the King who institutes all this also founds an ATL Church of England, separate from Rome, but not otherwise connected to the (soon-to-emerge) Protestantism on the Continent. It may in fact be Catholic in practically every way, except that the King is the head of the Church, and the Pope is ignored. (Although with the isolationist, anti-foreign motivation, a swerve to all-English liturgy would be likely, too.)

-- I wouldn't expect this isolation to last 264 years, as was the case in Japan, but I do think that a fairly lengthy period would be realistic if under the right circumstances. If it lasts for "merely" 50 years or so, from 1500 to 1550, that already dramatically changes history by avoiding OTL British influence on other countries. Personally, I think that something like a "closed century" should be achievable.

That could work,except one thing -
At least Scotland would remain independent,they have strong ties with France.Ireland maybe too.


.About Church - in Spain local church ignored popes many times,so why not in England?