Skallagrim
Well-known member
I've been thinking about the somewhat obvious comparison between Britain and Japan. Both insular domains, right off the coast of the great Eurasian continent. Therefore always close to the goings-on of the relevant continental powers and their struggles. Occasionally ambitiously involved in said struggles, and at times even bold enough to claim massive continental holdings. Yet also both inclined to stay apart, and aloof, to remain separate and distinct. Both Britain and Japan have also seen periods of civil wars, which defined the future course of each in major ways.
What I find interesting is that after the tribulations of the Sengoku period, Japan turned to a fairly thorough policy of isolationism. (Not as total or consistent as is sometimes imagined, but still clearly and strongly dedicated towards isolation and the "inward turn".) Britain, very obviously, did not do this. In fact, its periods of civil warring resulted in subsequent periods more obviously dedicated to outward-facing objectives. (Thus, the Wars of the Roses were followed up by the Tudor era, and ultimately the Elizabethan exploration ventures. And the English Civil War, Protectorate, and then the Restoration period resulted in the Glorious Revolution and a Britain more engaged in foreign relations than ever before.)
My question here is: would it be possible for Britain to become as isolationist as Tokugawa-era Japan?
What I'm not looking for, to be clear, is a modern scenario where some British totalitarian regime goes the way of North Korea. Let's say that this has to happen before 1700. (To be as analogous as possible to Japan, I think that pre-1600 would be even better, but there might be some workable PODs involving the English Civil War or the Glorious Revolution.)
My own first though is of the Wars of the Roses, which we may imagine as the British equivalent to the late Sengoku Period. Sure, the Sengoku Period in Japan lasted a century and a half, and the Wars of the Roses lasted only three decades. But then again, the Hundred Years' War was also a cause of considerable disturbance, and it preceded (and to a considerable degree, led to) the Wars of the Roses.
I'm not exactly sure how it would -- or could -- work, but I could imagine a scenario where Richard III beats Henry Tudor at Bosworth Field, but some time later ends up getting assassinated before getting his own succession in order. And then various pretenders to the throne (some claiming to be the murdered Princes in the Tower) come out of the woodwork, several of them backed by foreign powers...
This would then require one contender decisively beating all the rivals, and (presumably due to the foreign attempts to put a puppet on the throne) deciding to close his Kingdom off from the outside world.
Such a scenario runs the risk of veering closer to pure fiction than anything else, of course. It's interesting, but is it really still alternate history?
If anyone can think of a more plausible way to turn Britain into an analogue of Tokugawa Japan, I'm all ears. There are always things such as Cromwell installing some puppet king and essentially becoming a Shogun-like ruler. Or, considering that Japan didn't have anything like the Anglo-Saxons invading, we might even imagine that Britain that remains Celtic has a better chance at becoming isolated from the continent. Again: I'm interested in the ideas others here may have.
What I find interesting is that after the tribulations of the Sengoku period, Japan turned to a fairly thorough policy of isolationism. (Not as total or consistent as is sometimes imagined, but still clearly and strongly dedicated towards isolation and the "inward turn".) Britain, very obviously, did not do this. In fact, its periods of civil warring resulted in subsequent periods more obviously dedicated to outward-facing objectives. (Thus, the Wars of the Roses were followed up by the Tudor era, and ultimately the Elizabethan exploration ventures. And the English Civil War, Protectorate, and then the Restoration period resulted in the Glorious Revolution and a Britain more engaged in foreign relations than ever before.)
My question here is: would it be possible for Britain to become as isolationist as Tokugawa-era Japan?
What I'm not looking for, to be clear, is a modern scenario where some British totalitarian regime goes the way of North Korea. Let's say that this has to happen before 1700. (To be as analogous as possible to Japan, I think that pre-1600 would be even better, but there might be some workable PODs involving the English Civil War or the Glorious Revolution.)
My own first though is of the Wars of the Roses, which we may imagine as the British equivalent to the late Sengoku Period. Sure, the Sengoku Period in Japan lasted a century and a half, and the Wars of the Roses lasted only three decades. But then again, the Hundred Years' War was also a cause of considerable disturbance, and it preceded (and to a considerable degree, led to) the Wars of the Roses.
I'm not exactly sure how it would -- or could -- work, but I could imagine a scenario where Richard III beats Henry Tudor at Bosworth Field, but some time later ends up getting assassinated before getting his own succession in order. And then various pretenders to the throne (some claiming to be the murdered Princes in the Tower) come out of the woodwork, several of them backed by foreign powers...
This would then require one contender decisively beating all the rivals, and (presumably due to the foreign attempts to put a puppet on the throne) deciding to close his Kingdom off from the outside world.
Such a scenario runs the risk of veering closer to pure fiction than anything else, of course. It's interesting, but is it really still alternate history?
If anyone can think of a more plausible way to turn Britain into an analogue of Tokugawa Japan, I'm all ears. There are always things such as Cromwell installing some puppet king and essentially becoming a Shogun-like ruler. Or, considering that Japan didn't have anything like the Anglo-Saxons invading, we might even imagine that Britain that remains Celtic has a better chance at becoming isolated from the continent. Again: I'm interested in the ideas others here may have.