AHC: partition of British, French, Dutch or Belgian colonial empires by other imperialists, post 1880

[raharris1973]

The challenge is straightforward as stated in the title, and applies to the specific empires (British, French, Belgian, Dutch) only and the specific time-period only and by specific beneficiaries only (other imperialists, so not independence movements). So don’t get clever and say “that’s OTL…blah, blah…”

In OTL the German colonial empire was partitioned by the victorious Entente powers after WWI and liquidated that way. After WWII, the Italian and Japanese colonial empires were somewhat similarly partitioned and liquidated. Earlier, the Spanish empire was partially partitioned by the Spanish-American war and German purchase of Micronesia.

how could we repeat such processes, but against a top tier player, like Britain or France? Or apply it to a colonial gem like the Congo or East Indies?

 

[stevep]

Well Belgium is the easiest. Both because its a single possession and because they haven't held it long. In fact ~1880 they haven't held it at all as Leopold's rule isn't established until 1885. Possibly after the scandal of Leopold's rule in the Congo rather than take it over themselves the Belgium government sells it to someone else. Germany might be the most likely option as by this time Bismarck has either relaxed his opposition to extra-European colonies or been removed himself and if say the scandal occurs earlier or Wilhelm II is somewhat less destructive of German diplomacy Britain especially wouldn't probably object and Germany would have the money.

For the Netherlands, even ignoring their possessions in the Americas the DEI are a collection of territories so they might end up split among different powers. However the exact causes might be difficult. I can see a couple of possibilities.
a) That for some reason the Netherlands and Japan ~1900-10 get into a rumble and no other party intervene. In this case the Dutch don't really have the resources to defend the DEI and Japan should have the resources to take them, although possibly not hold them all at this stage. However not sure you get a situation where no one interferes. Apart from the fact many western colonizers won't like Japan taking over the region, even if some Japanese aren't claiming it as a liberation of fellow Asians from western colonizers. Plus the strategic position of the colonies would have even Britain, as Japan's primary ally OTL would have kittens about the Japanese controlling such areas as would the Australians and French and possibly the Americans.

b) That there's a WWI similar to OTL but it ends up in a stalemate. If for some reason Germans has occupied and continues to control the Netherlands or alternative somehow the Dutch end up as a German ally the DEI would be a free fire zone for the allied powers as their too important both in themselves and their location to be left plus a lot of powers will want to grab areas before other allies do.

For France its much more difficult to see because its a major power and also its empire even by 1880 is so large. As such its likely that at least some areas would stay under French control. Most likely possibly Algeria which already has a significant French settlement and possibly parts of their American possessions as the US might use the Monroe doctrine as an excuse to intervene. Possibly the easiest way would be that Frederick III of Germany doesn't have his throat cancer and rules for at least a couple of decades. He would favour a more liberal and less militaristic Germany and hence is unlikely to alienate Britain and the two powers could end up with a defensive alliance, especially if for whatever reason the Germany-Russian alliance lapses and Russia and France combine.

In itself that would make war unlikely as the CP + Britain would be too powerful and neither Britain nor a liberal Germany are likely to be that eager to start a war. However an accident could spiral into a war - or possibly the Franco-Russian alliance think they will have American support for some reason? The resulting conflict ends with France heavily defeated. In that case much of the French empire, although I suspect not all, is likely to end up being transferred to other control. [British, German, Italian, Australia, Japanese, American etc if any/all of them are on the anti-French side. Mind you I could see at least some areas, in the more isolated parts of Africa for instance simply being seen as not worth the bother. Of course this assumes that Wilhelm II has a less anti-British mind-set but possibly a couple of decades of close Anglo-German relations could change this.

For Britain its more complex simply because of the sheer size of the British empire, including areas such as Canada, already a largely independent dominion - with more to follow in 1901-10 OTL - and India, as well as that it really needs a way of overcoming the dominance of the RN. Which makes it very difficult for anyone to get to most of the colonies. Germany as it showed could make a substantial challenge to Britain's naval power but with its own continental needs couldn't break it, unless you assume either extreme stupidity in British leadership or some tech or tactical breakthrough that quickly and at the right time negates that British naval power. Then a quick conquest of the British Isles could force a surrender and much of the empire being lost at the resulting settlement.

The only other option that comes to mind is that the US is markedly more aggressive and for whatever reason joins a combination against Britain. This would from this time period put Canada and the Caribbean colonies at great risk and if its a point, OTL from ~1910/15 onward where the US is building up a large navy itself then its strength combined with Germany's could forces a defeat and much of the colonial carve up. Who would get India and whether they could hold it plus what happens to Australia and New Zealand would be interesting questions.

 

[WolfBear]

The challenge is straightforward as stated in the title, and applies to the specific empires (British, French, Belgian, Dutch) only and the specific time-period only and by specific beneficiaries only (other imperialists, so not independence movements). So don’t get clever and say “that’s OTL…blah, blah…”

In OTL the German colonial empire was partitioned by the victorious Entente powers after WWI and liquidated that way. After WWII, the Italian and Japanese colonial empires were somewhat similarly partitioned and liquidated. Earlier, the Spanish empire was partially partitioned by the Spanish-American war and German purchase of Micronesia.

how could we repeat such processes, but against a top tier player, like Britain or France? Or apply it to a colonial gem like the Congo or East Indies?

Against France, it's easy: Just have a later alt-WWI where it's Britain, Germany, A-H, and the Ottomans (and possibly Italy as well) against the Franco-Russians. When the Franco-Russians lose this alt-WWI, France loses its entire colonial empire, or at least most of it.

 

[raharris1973]

Well Belgium is the easiest. Both because its a single possession and because they haven't held it long. In fact ~1880 they haven't held it at all as Leopold's rule isn't established until 1885. Possibly after the scandal of Leopold's rule in the Congo rather than take it over themselves the Belgium government sells it to someone else. Germany might be the most likely option as by this time Bismarck has either relaxed his opposition to extra-European colonies or been removed himself and if say the scandal occurs earlier or Wilhelm II is somewhat less destructive of German diplomacy Britain especially wouldn't probably object and Germany would have the money.

For the Netherlands, even ignoring their possessions in the Americas the DEI are a collection of territories so they might end up split among different powers. However the exact causes might be difficult. I can see a couple of possibilities.
a) That for some reason the Netherlands and Japan ~1900-10 get into a rumble and no other party intervene. In this case the Dutch don't really have the resources to defend the DEI and Japan should have the resources to take them, although possibly not hold them all at this stage. However not sure you get a situation where no one interferes. Apart from the fact many western colonizers won't like Japan taking over the region, even if some Japanese aren't claiming it as a liberation of fellow Asians from western colonizers. Plus the strategic position of the colonies would have even Britain, as Japan's primary ally OTL would have kittens about the Japanese controlling such areas as would the Australians and French and possibly the Americans.

b) That there's a WWI similar to OTL but it ends up in a stalemate. If for some reason Germans has occupied and continues to control the Netherlands or alternative somehow the Dutch end up as a German ally the DEI would be a free fire zone for the allied powers as their too important both in themselves and their location to be left plus a lot of powers will want to grab areas before other allies do.

For France its much more difficult to see because its a major power and also its empire even by 1880 is so large. As such its likely that at least some areas would stay under French control. Most likely possibly Algeria which already has a significant French settlement and possibly parts of their American possessions as the US might use the Monroe doctrine as an excuse to intervene. Possibly the easiest way would be that Frederick III of Germany doesn't have his throat cancer and rules for at least a couple of decades. He would favour a more liberal and less militaristic Germany and hence is unlikely to alienate Britain and the two powers could end up with a defensive alliance, especially if for whatever reason the Germany-Russian alliance lapses and Russia and France combine.

In itself that would make war unlikely as the CP + Britain would be too powerful and neither Britain nor a liberal Germany are likely to be that eager to start a war. However an accident could spiral into a war - or possibly the Franco-Russian alliance think they will have American support for some reason? The resulting conflict ends with France heavily defeated. In that case much of the French empire, although I suspect not all, is likely to end up being transferred to other control. [British, German, Italian, Australia, Japanese, American etc if any/all of them are on the anti-French side. Mind you I could see at least some areas, in the more isolated parts of Africa for instance simply being seen as not we[;iorth the bother. Of course this assumes that Wilhelm II has a less anti-British mind-set but possibly a couple of decades of close Anglo-German relations could change this.

For Britain its more complex simply because of the sheer size of the British empire, including areas such as Canada, already a largely independent dominion - with more to follow in 1901-10 OTL - and India, as well as that it really needs a way of overcoming the dominance of the RN. Which makes it very difficult for anyone to get to most of the colonies. Germany as it showed could make a substantial challenge to Britain's naval power but with its own continental needs couldn't break it, unless you assume either extreme stupidity in British leadership or some tech or tactical breakthrough that quickly and at the right time negates that British naval power. Then a quick conquest of the British Isles could force a surrender and much of the empire being lost at the resulting settlement.

The only other option that comes to mind is that the US is markedly more aggressive and for whatever reason joins a combination against Britain. This would from this time period put Canada and the Caribbean colonies at great risk and if its a point, OTL from ~1910/15 onward where the US is building up a large navy itself then its strength combined with Germany's could forces a defeat and much of the colonial carve up. Who would get India and whether they could hold it plus what happens to Australia and New Zealand would be interesting questions.

Nice, thorough reply. Thanks!

 

[WolfBear]

Well Belgium is the easiest. Both because its a single possession and because they haven't held it long. In fact ~1880 they haven't held it at all as Leopold's rule isn't established until 1885. Possibly after the scandal of Leopold's rule in the Congo rather than take it over themselves the Belgium government sells it to someone else. Germany might be the most likely option as by this time Bismarck has either relaxed his opposition to extra-European colonies or been removed himself and if say the scandal occurs earlier or Wilhelm II is somewhat less destructive of German diplomacy Britain especially wouldn't probably object and Germany would have the money.

For the Netherlands, even ignoring their possessions in the Americas the DEI are a collection of territories so they might end up split among different powers. However the exact causes might be difficult. I can see a couple of possibilities.
a) That for some reason the Netherlands and Japan ~1900-10 get into a rumble and no other party intervene. In this case the Dutch don't really have the resources to defend the DEI and Japan should have the resources to take them, although possibly not hold them all at this stage. However not sure you get a situation where no one interferes. Apart from the fact many western colonizers won't like Japan taking over the region, even if some Japanese aren't claiming it as a liberation of fellow Asians from western colonizers. Plus the strategic position of the colonies would have even Britain, as Japan's primary ally OTL would have kittens about the Japanese controlling such areas as would the Australians and French and possibly the Americans.

b) That there's a WWI similar to OTL but it ends up in a stalemate. If for some reason Germans has occupied and continues to control the Netherlands or alternative somehow the Dutch end up as a German ally the DEI would be a free fire zone for the allied powers as their too important both in themselves and their location to be left plus a lot of powers will want to grab areas before other allies do.

For France its much more difficult to see because its a major power and also its empire even by 1880 is so large. As such its likely that at least some areas would stay under French control. Most likely possibly Algeria which already has a significant French settlement and possibly parts of their American possessions as the US might use the Monroe doctrine as an excuse to intervene. Possibly the easiest way would be that Frederick III of Germany doesn't have his throat cancer and rules for at least a couple of decades. He would favour a more liberal and less militaristic Germany and hence is unlikely to alienate Britain and the two powers could end up with a defensive alliance, especially if for whatever reason the Germany-Russian alliance lapses and Russia and France combine.

In itself that would make war unlikely as the CP + Britain would be too powerful and neither Britain nor a liberal Germany are likely to be that eager to start a war. However an accident could spiral into a war - or possibly the Franco-Russian alliance think they will have American support for some reason? The resulting conflict ends with France heavily defeated. In that case much of the French empire, although I suspect not all, is likely to end up being transferred to other control. [British, German, Italian, Australia, Japanese, American etc if any/all of them are on the anti-French side. Mind you I could see at least some areas, in the more isolated parts of Africa for instance simply being seen as not worth the bother. Of course this assumes that Wilhelm II has a less anti-British mind-set but possibly a couple of decades of close Anglo-German relations could change this.

For Britain its more complex simply because of the sheer size of the British empire, including areas such as Canada, already a largely independent dominion - with more to follow in 1901-10 OTL - and India, as well as that it really needs a way of overcoming the dominance of the RN. Which makes it very difficult for anyone to get to most of the colonies. Germany as it showed could make a substantial challenge to Britain's naval power but with its own continental needs couldn't break it, unless you assume either extreme stupidity in British leadership or some tech or tactical breakthrough that quickly and at the right time negates that British naval power. Then a quick conquest of the British Isles could force a surrender and much of the empire being lost at the resulting settlement.

The only other option that comes to mind is that the US is markedly more aggressive and for whatever reason joins a combination against Britain. This would from this time period put Canada and the Caribbean colonies at great risk and if its a point, OTL from ~1910/15 onward where the US is building up a large navy itself then its strength combined with Germany's could forces a defeat and much of the colonial carve up. Who would get India and whether they could hold it plus what happens to Australia and New Zealand would be interesting questions.

One possible trigger point for an alt-WWI with a Britain-Germany alliance would be over Ottoman Armenia: Specifically if massacres break out there again and the Anglo-Germans insist on the creation of an independent Greater Armenian state while Russia (and possibly France as well) insist on the annexation of Greater Armenia to the Russian Empire. If arbitration will fail to reach a suitable compromise in regards to this, then war could certainly result, especially if the Anglo-Germans will fear that Russia is attempting to make a move on the Straits, either now or sometime later, with Greater Armenia as a springboard for this.

In regards to Algeria, can't the pieds-noirs in Algeria eventually become as loyal to the British Crown as the Quebecois became in real life if Britain will ever take over French Algeria? Of course, there is also the possibility of the Ottomans wanting Algeria back. They could even be willing to naturalize the pieds-noirs due to their high levels of both human capital and economic capital.

 

[raharris1973]

Possibly after the scandal of Leopold's rule in the Congo rather than take it over themselves the Belgium government sells it to someone else. Germany might be the most likely option as by this time Bismarck has either relaxed his opposition to extra-European colonies or been removed himself and if say the scandal occurs earlier or Wilhelm II is somewhat less destructive of German diplomacy Britain especially wouldn't probably object and Germany would have the money.

Are you sure Germany could execute the purchase without the Entente Cordiale powers, Britain and France, going apoplectic?

This would give a mineral-rich, central territory to Germany, allowing it to build a transcontinental railroad across the "waist" of Africa, between the mouth of the Congo and Dar Es Salaam in Tanganyika. The now German Katanga would not only be mineral rich, but "a dagger pointed at the heart of northern Rhodesia". Meanwhile, the now German Congo's northwest frontier would pose a broad arc of threat to the French Equatorial Africa colony, with Kamerun less than a couple hundred kilometers away putting it in a vise. It also would add an unwelcome German owned border for the Sudan.

If the UK and French want to be moralistic about it, they can also chide the Germans saying, 'what improvement can we expect at the hands of the authors of the recent Herero genocide?' Of course the Germans could retort with 'Excuse, was Captain Concentration Camp, Boer Boy Starver saying something?"

The French would at a minimum, speed up their moves taking over Morocco in reaction.

 

[WolfBear]

Are you sure Germany could execute the purchase without the Entente Cordiale powers, Britain and France, going apoplectic?

This would give a mineral-rich, central territory to Germany, allowing it to build a transcontinental railroad across the "waist" of Africa, between the mouth of the Congo and Dar Es Salaam in Tanganyika. The now German Katanga would not only be mineral rich, but "a dagger pointed at the heart of northern Rhodesia". Meanwhile, the now German Congo's northwest frontier would pose a broad arc of threat to the French Equatorial Africa colony, with Kamerun less than a couple hundred kilometers away putting it in a vise. It also would add an unwelcome German owned border for the Sudan.

If the UK and French want to be moralistic about it, they can also chide the Germans saying, 'what improvement can we expect at the hands of the authors of the recent Herero genocide?' Of course the Germans could retort with 'Excuse, was Captain Concentration Camp, Boer Boy Starver saying something?"

The French would at a minimum, speed up their moves taking over Morocco in reaction.

Maybe the Anglo-French could also insist on territorial compensation for them at the Ottoman Empire's expense?

 

[raharris1973]

Are you sure Germany could execute the purchase without the Entente Cordiale powers, Britain and France, going apoplectic?

This would give a mineral-rich, central territory to Germany, allowing it to build a transcontinental railroad across the "waist" of Africa, between the mouth of the Congo and Dar Es Salaam in Tanganyika. The now German Katanga would not only be mineral rich, but "a dagger pointed at the heart of northern Rhodesia". Meanwhile, the now German Congo's northwest frontier would pose a broad arc of threat to the French Equatorial Africa colony, with Kamerun less than a couple hundred kilometers away putting it in a vise. It also would add an unwelcome German owned border for the Sudan.

If the UK and French want to be moralistic about it, they can also chide the Germans saying, 'what improvement can we expect at the hands of the authors of the recent Herero genocide?' Of course the Germans could retort with 'Excuse, was Captain Concentration Camp, Boer Boy Starver saying something?"

The French would at a minimum, speed up their moves taking over Morocco in reaction.

Any thoughts on my Belgium thoughts, @stevep, anybody else?

 

[raharris1973]

For France its much more difficult to see because its a major power and also its empire even by 1880 is so large. As such its likely that at least some areas would stay under French control. Most likely possibly Algeria which already has a significant French settlement and possibly parts of their American possessions as the US might use the Monroe doctrine as an excuse to intervene. Possibly the easiest way would be that Frederick III of Germany doesn't have his throat cancer and rules for at least a couple of decades. He would favour a more liberal and less militaristic Germany and hence is unlikely to alienate Britain and the two powers could end up with a defensive alliance, especially if for whatever reason the Germany-Russian alliance lapses and Russia and France combine.

In itself that would make war unlikely as the CP + Britain would be too powerful and neither Britain nor a liberal Germany are likely to be that eager to start a war. However an accident could spiral into a war - or possibly the Franco-Russian alliance think they will have American support for some reason? The resulting conflict ends with France heavily defeated. In that case much of the French empire, although I suspect not all, is likely to end up being transferred to other control. [British, German, Italian, Australia, Japanese, American etc if any/all of them are on the anti-French side. Mind you I could see at least some areas, in the more isolated parts of Africa for instance simply being seen as not worth the bother. Of course this assumes that Wilhelm II has a less anti-British mind-set but possibly a couple of decades of close Anglo-German relations could change this.

For Britain its more complex simply because of the sheer size of the British empire, including areas such as Canada, already a largely independent dominion - with more to follow in 1901-10 OTL - and India, as well as that it really needs a way of overcoming the dominance of the RN. Which makes it very difficult for anyone to get to most of the colonies. Germany as it showed could make a substantial challenge to Britain's naval power but with its own continental needs couldn't break it, unless you assume either extreme stupidity in British leadership or some tech or tactical breakthrough that quickly and at the right time negates that British naval power. Then a quick conquest of the British Isles could force a surrender and much of the empire being lost at the resulting settlement.

The only other option that comes to mind is that the US is markedly more aggressive and for whatever reason joins a combination against Britain. This would from this time period put Canada and the Caribbean colonies at great risk and if its a point, OTL from ~1910/15 onward where the US is building up a large navy itself then its strength combined with Germany's could forces a defeat and much of the colonial carve up. Who would get India and whether they could hold it plus what happens to Australia and New Zealand would be interesting questions.

France and Britain really are the big discussion here.

Of the two, the French Empire can be far, far more plausibly partitioned by other powers than the British. Tough luck for being #2. It's the difference between being a diner or being a dinner.

What are all the various ways and various times at which the French Empire could be split up? I agree, Algeria is the hardest colony to take, but it is not impossible. Besides the world wars there's the Fashoda Crisis. an escalation of the Boer War, the Siam Crisis of 1893, potential escalation of the Sino-French War in the 1880s, potential escalation of the Russo-Japanese war, the Moroccan crises, to think of a few. There's also Italian or Franco-ist move on French colonies in a no Vichy scenario.

The British Empire is the toughest nut, I would tend to think this requires a coalition of almost everybody important in Europe, plus the United States *and* a confluence with significant internal unrest. You've got to take the geopolitical/diplomatic isolation Britain had in the 1770s-1780s during the American revolution, dial it up to 11, add in yet more difficulties, and then maybe you can get somewhere, but it's hard.