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AHC: An alternative rogue state (other than Serbia) in Europe in the pre-WWI era?

WolfBear

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Here's an interesting AHC for you: Have an alternate rogue state (other than Serbia) in Europe in the pre-WWI era? In real life, we had a regicide in Serbia in 1903 and then Serbia's intelligence agency planning Franz Ferdinand's assassination in 1914, albeit without the approval of the central Serbian government. Also, the Ottoman Empire doesn't count for this since only a small part of it was in Europe, with most of it being in Asia. Obviously it was a rogue state due to the Hamidian massacres and whatnot, but again, it wasn't really all that European and that doesn't actually count for this.

Anyway, which alternative European country would be most likely to fit the role of a rogue state in the pre-WWI era? Any thoughts on this? Obviously Bolshevik Russia was a rogue state post-WWI, but again, I'm talking about the pre-WWI era here. Maybe one way to make Tsarist Russia qualify for this would be if, in addition to persecuting its Jews and dissidents, it aggressively hunted down and murdered them abroad just like Vladimir Putin is currently doing in real life. Ironically, though, such an approach might very well actually be better for Russia long-term relative to its real-life fate if Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, et cetera are all murdered abroad by the Russian Tsarist regime. How ironic!
 

WolfBear

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Interestingly enough, it appears that pre-WWI Serbia might have been less of a rogue state than is commonly assumed:


The hypothesis is that Apis (the guy in charge of Serbia's intelligence agency) only wanted to frighten FF rather than to kill him (hence the recruitment of young teenage amateurs for this task) and that rather than wanting a war with A-H, he simply wanted to scare and rattle A-H enough so that A-H would (hopefully successfully) push for the removal and replacement of the government of Nikola Pasic, whom Apis considered to be a political rival. Basically, based on this theory, the fact that FF's assassination actually succeeded and subsequently led to a World War was simply dumb luck and was not actually intended even by Serbia's intelligence agency.
 

TheRomanSlayer

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Alternatively, you could have a smaller Albanian state that is shorn off its northern and southern territories emerge in a different Balkan War peace treaty, with Shkoder being given to Montenegro, and Epirus given to Greece.
 

WolfBear

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Alternatively, you could have a smaller Albanian state that is shorn off its northern and southern territories emerge in a different Balkan War peace treaty, with Shkoder being given to Montenegro, and Epirus given to Greece.
Any chance of Italy trying to conquer this rump Albania? Or would A-H oppose this, by force, if necessary?
 

stevep

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Alternatively, you could have a smaller Albanian state that is shorn off its northern and southern territories emerge in a different Balkan War peace treaty, with Shkoder being given to Montenegro, and Epirus given to Greece.
That's definitely an option. Or if Serbia had gained an outlet to the sea in Albania it might have held to its pre-war commitement on territory with the other powers and transfer a good chunk of Macedonia to Bulgaria. In that case you might not get the 2nd Balkan war and the tension between Bulgaria and both Serbia and Russia. Which could change a lot.
 
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