Would it have been plausible to see a Russo-Austro-Hungarian deal during the 1914 July Crisis which would have involved Austria-Hungary crushing Serbia while Russia simultaneously partitions the Ottoman Empire with the cooperation of the other Great Powers? As in, an Ottoman partition would be Russia's precondition for A-H being allowed to crush Serbia. The Russian logic really is quite simple here: If A-H crushes Serbia, then Russia's relative position in Europe will be weakened. Thus, as compensation for this, Russia needs to strengthen its position elsewhere, such as in the Middle East, in order to eliminate that theater as a potential front in any future Great War. Yin-yang, if you will!
A Russo-Austro-Hungarian deal during the 1914 July Crisis: Austria-Hungary crushes Serbia while Russia simultaneously partitions the Ottoman Empire?
- Thread starter WolfBear
- Start date
raharris1973
Well-known member
Gettin' a little early in the mornin' for Molotov-Ribbentropp'ing isn't it WolfBear? And that arrangement didn't last two long either.
TheRomanSlayer
Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
I'm not sure if Russia would be willing to let its only remaining Balkan ally get crushed by Austria-Hungary. It already lost Bulgaria as an ally, so Serbia is the only one left. Moreover, the Russians could also potentially intervene during one of the anti-Armenian massacres that were committed in eastern Anatolia, but what would they get out of such a thing, other than the Ottomans formally joining the Central Powers before WWI would break out?
Russoskepticism would become a thing in Serbia if Russia ends up throwing its only remaining ally to the dogs, and by then the Balkans would be virtually an Austrian garden to boot.
Russoskepticism would become a thing in Serbia if Russia ends up throwing its only remaining ally to the dogs, and by then the Balkans would be virtually an Austrian garden to boot.
"too long", not "two long".
And Yeah, one would think that Russia had a golden opportunity to partition the Ottoman Empire back in 1895-1896 and didn't take it. Still, Russia was flirting with various schemes to undermine the Ottoman Empire as late as the early 1910s:
Whose fault was it that Bulgaria was lost? And the goal is to completely dismantle the Ottoman Empire, not just to grab a relatively small amount of Ottoman territory for Russia.
And Yes, Russia would take a huge hit in the Balkans by doing this, no doubt. Still, given what ultimately happened to Russia in real life, that's still a tradeoff that's worth making. If Russia was unwilling to decisively deal with its defeatists and subversives in the middle of WWI, then it shouldn't have gotten involved in WWI in the first place. Period. It really is that simple.
TheRomanSlayer
Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
True, plus the planned reforms that Stolypin was launching was sadly cut short by his assassination, and another kind of military reform that would have been completed by 1917."too long", not "two long".
And Yeah, one would think that Russia had a golden opportunity to partition the Ottoman Empire back in 1895-1896 and didn't take it. Still, Russia was flirting with various schemes to undermine the Ottoman Empire as late as the early 1910s:
Whose fault was it that Bulgaria was lost? And the goal is to completely dismantle the Ottoman Empire, not just to grab a relatively small amount of Ottoman territory for Russia.
And Yes, Russia would take a huge hit in the Balkans by doing this, no doubt. Still, given what ultimately happened to Russia in real life, that's still a tradeoff that's worth making. If Russia was unwilling to decisively deal with its defeatists and subversives in the middle of WWI, then it shouldn't have gotten involved in WWI in the first place. Period. It really is that simple.
Yep, Russia should have avoided entering a World War unless it would have literally been forced to do this, which it was not in 1914.
raharris1973
Well-known member
Or for even more fun, have Germany attack France and Belgium over the 2nd Morocco crisis. That brings Britain into a west European and colonial war.
But Russia and Austria both decide they have no skin in the game in a war started over Africa and not their interests. Russia and Austria strike a bargain where Austria gets to grab Serbia and the Ottoman western Balkans, and Russia gets to grab the straits and all of Asian Turkey as far south as Jerusalem, Jaffa and Baghdad. If the Russians go wild they get down to Gaza, Basra, and maybe Aqaba. Assuming the Italians are neutral rather than involved in the west European war, they intervene against the Ottomans to grab Libya for themselves.
But Russia and Austria both decide they have no skin in the game in a war started over Africa and not their interests. Russia and Austria strike a bargain where Austria gets to grab Serbia and the Ottoman western Balkans, and Russia gets to grab the straits and all of Asian Turkey as far south as Jerusalem, Jaffa and Baghdad. If the Russians go wild they get down to Gaza, Basra, and maybe Aqaba. Assuming the Italians are neutral rather than involved in the west European war, they intervene against the Ottomans to grab Libya for themselves.
I think that Germany will be severely pissed off at A-H for throwing the Ottoman Empire to the Russian wolves! And Russian ultra-nationalists would be pissed off at the loss of Serbia, especially considering that, unlike in 1914, Serbia hasn't actually done anything wrong here.
raharris1973
Well-known member
At least Germany will be pissed at both its allies, Austria-Hungary and Italy, since both will probably be participating.
Well sure, if they're going to be greedy about sheepful mountains in the western Balkans, but c'mon, the straits, a near monopoly on the Black Sea, the keys to the Holy Places, a monopoly on Biblical pilgrimages and tourism, a lever against Persia - it's nothing to sneeze at.
Yeah, very true.
Well, I guess that pro-Russian Serbian refugees could always be resettled in the Holy Land, eh?
Though does Russia actually have the logistics to get that far before Britain or someone else will take it first?