A couple what-ifs on Austrian Balkan policy in the early 20th century

[raharris1973]

1) What if Austria-Hungary welcomed Muslim refugees fleeing conquered Ottoman territories in the first and second Balkan Wars to settle in Bosnia? The idea, beside being a humanitarian gesture, would be to shore up the anti-Serbian (and by extension, pro-Habsburg) element in Bosnia and improve relations the Ottomans as a prospective ally.

2) What if during the Bosnian crisis of 1908-1909, Austria-Hungary declined to yield its long-occupied Sanjak of Novi Pazar, positioned between Montenegro and Serbia, and instead annexed it, with Bosnia? Is taking such an action any more likely to make the Bosnia crisis lead to war in the short-term? With whom? Serbia? Russia? Or possibly the Ottomans?

If not, what difference does the solid Austrian presence make later when we get to 1912 and the Balkan Wars?

3) Can Austria-Hungary just perpetuate the 1878-1908 status quo of a Viennese occupied and governed Bosnia and Sanjak of Novi Pazar that is formally under Ottoman suzerainty, indefinitely into the future, without either yielding practical control back to the Ottomans, or newer claimants like the Serbs, nor annexing any of the territories itself?

 

[WolfBear]

1. Not a bad idea in theory. I suppose that this would also play well with the Ottomans themselves ("The Austrians are pro-Muslim and thus our friends!") and would poke an eye in the Russian bear considering how much worse Russians themselves treated their own Muslims:

Circassian genocide - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I just hope that these Muslims are actually going to become cool with Muhammad cartoons over the next 100 years, because if not, then there could eventually be something comparable to the Charlie Hebdo massacre in Austria-Hungary (if it will actually survive up to the present-day, of course).

2. Unlikely since Russia wasn't actually ready for war in 1908. And the Ottomans won't fight A-H if Germany will militarily support A-H.

One crucial difference that this will make for later is that it would make Serbo-Montengrin unification impossible without A-H consent, which would likely require the defeat of A-H in a major war since A-H won't want to voluntarily give up its own territory without a good reason.

3. In theory, I suppose so, but the Ottomans could still insist on parliamentary elections being held there, and if A-H refuses, then this should significantly strain A-H-Ottoman relations, no?

 

[Buba]

1 - all Serbs in Bosnia spending their walking hours thinking about manners of reunification with Serbia is a myth. Most did not give a shit about the goat shagging, king murdering scum to the south. The local "Serbs" i.e. Slavs could be placated in various ways, no need to complicate the issue further by bringing in despised Moslems.

2 - good question. I take it that Novi Pazar was the price that A-H paid for Bosnia. Retaining it keeps Montenegro and Serbia apart - an complicates Serbian military situation come 1914. I don;t think that keeping it/annexing it in 1908 would had caused a war - Turkey was too weak.

3 - yes

 

[PsihoKekec]

1) What if Austria-Hungary welcomed Muslim refugees fleeing conquered Ottoman territories in the first and second Balkan Wars to settle in Bosnia? The idea, beside being a humanitarian gesture, would be to shore up the anti-Serbian (and by extension, pro-Habsburg) element in Bosnia and improve relations the Ottomans as a prospective ally.

These people don't speak the local language, don't follow the local customs, will need food, housing and employment, which will come at the expense of locals. Thus it is an excellent way to unite Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs in Bosnia against the AH and revive the local custom of bloody rebellions.

2) What if during the Bosnian crisis of 1908-1909, Austria-Hungary declined to yield its long-occupied Sanjak of Novi Pazar, positioned between Montenegro and Serbia, and instead annexed it, with Bosnia? Is taking such an action any more likely to make the Bosnia crisis lead to war in the short-term?

Handing over Novi Pazar to Serbia was concession to Russia, but I don't think Russia would go to war over it.

3) Can Austria-Hungary just perpetuate the 1878-1908 status quo of a Viennese occupied and governed Bosnia and Sanjak of Novi Pazar that is formally under Ottoman suzerainty, indefinitely into the future

No. At the latest, they would annex it during Balkan wars.

 

[WolfBear]

These people don't speak the local language, don't follow the local customs, will need food, housing and employment, which will come at the expense of locals. Thus it is an excellent way to unite Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs in Bosnia against the AH and revive the local custom of bloody rebellions.

They could resettle them in other parts of A-H.

 

[PsihoKekec]

So which part of the AH should be forced to drink this poisonous chalice?

 

[WolfBear]

So which part of the AH should be forced to drink this poisonous chalice?

Why not cosmopolitan Vienna? It already has a lot of Jews and Czechs, after all.

 

[Buba]

These people don't speak the local language, don't follow the local customs,

Many would speak Bulgar - which is close enough to so-called Serbo-Croat, and the customs are broadly similar too.

 

[raharris1973]

1 - all Serbs in Bosnia spending their walking hours thinking about manners of reunification with Serbia is a myth. Most did not give a shit about the goat shagging, king murdering scum to the south. The local "Serbs" i.e. Slavs could be placated in various ways, no need to complicate the issue further by bringing in despised Moslems.

2 - good question. I take it that Novi Pazar was the price that A-H paid for Bosnia. Retaining it keeps Montenegro and Serbia apart - an complicates Serbian military situation come 1914. I don;t think that keeping it/annexing it in 1908 would had caused a war - Turkey was too weak.

3 - yes

Who was Vienna and Budapest’s’favorite’ group in Bosnia, and which one was least anti monarchy, was it Serbs? Muslim Bosnians-needing a higher protector? Or Croats-because sharing Catholic religion?

 

[Buba]

Sorry, beyond my ken.
You need input from our Balkan members.
I'm fairly sure the Moslems were resentful for losing their ruling class status. And thus now open to open disdain by Croats and Serbs for being sellouts. They are not outsiders - they are local Slavs (current science holds that mostly Bogomils, a local group "pushing the limits of conventional Christianity") who converted to Islam "not so long ago".
Same thing will happen with Pomaks in Bulgaria after 1912/3.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Many would speak Bulgar - which is close enough to so-called Serbo-Croat, and the customs are broadly similar too.

Bulgar language is next to incomprehensible to Serb/Croat speakers, not to mention that most of the refugees are actually Turks and Circacisans, rather than islamized Greeks and Bulgarians (who mostly stayed).

Who was Vienna favorite’ group in Bosnia

It was the Muslims, Serbs and Croats were resentful due to the fact that Austrians initially let the local power structure intact, so the Muslim oppression continued for some time as the rule of Austrian bureaucracy was gradually established.

 

[Buba]

Bulgar language is next to incomprehensible to Serb/Croat speakers,

If they speak slowly and loudly and wave their arms about even more than usual ...

not to mention that most of the refugees are actually Turks and Circacisans, rather than islamized Greeks and Bulgarians (who mostly stayed).

Oh, OK - I thought that these were the latter and not the former.

 

[WolfBear]

Bulgar language is next to incomprehensible to Serb/Croat speakers, not to mention that most of the refugees are actually Turks and Circacisans, rather than islamized Greeks and Bulgarians (who mostly stayed).

Austria has a lot of Turks right now, no? Are they bad citizens?

 

[PsihoKekec]

You do realize that Austrians and Turks from 1912 and 2022 are very different people?

 

[WolfBear]

You do realize that Austrians and Turks from 1912 and 2022 are very different people?

True, but they were already friends back in 1912 as well, no?

 

[PsihoKekec]

No, Turkey was friendly with Germany, not Austria.

 

[WolfBear]

No, Turkey was friendly with Germany, not Austria.

So, Turkey never forgave Austria for annexing B-H?

 

[PsihoKekec]

And many wars they fought. In the eyes of Turks the AH is an old enemy, but not as dangerous as the Russia. In the eyes of AH people the Turks are murderous savages that should be kept as far away as possible. Until WWI&II Turks had the status of ultimate evil within much of the AH.

 

[WolfBear]

And many wars they fought. In the eyes of Turks the AH is an old enemy, but not as dangerous as the Russia. In the eyes of AH people the Turks are murderous savages that should be kept as far away as possible. Until WWI&II Turks had the status of ultimate evil within much of the AH.

Quite an interesting attitude, no doubt! Easily explained by historical circumstances, though.