ISOT 1945 Germany swapped with 1939 Germany.

[Agent23]

An ASB with a sense of humor decides that swapping defeated and rearming Germany might be fun.
The ISOT happens on the 7th Of may for both timelines.

What would the upstream Allies reaction be.

How will the downstream world react to all of the duplicates and the destroyed Germany they have to deal with now?

 

[Buba]

1939? Indeed, lots of fun.
Poland shits itself, having millions of Soviet troops to its WEST. However, all those Soviet tanks and planes will stop running inside days as fuel ends. A good thing for the Red Army that it still has lots of horse drawn transport.
Also - several hundred thousand PEOPLES Polish Army troops came along too. I imagine that some will rebel and break through to the Fatherland or go over the Allies, but I'd guess that most will be disarmed and/or massacred.
The II Republic mobilizes and prepares to fight.

The western powers suddenly have a headache ...


1945?
The Allies lost almost all their combat troops, in the ETO only REMFs and the forces in Italy are left. And the flyboys - these will be relevant and become even more self important.
USSR is screwed if the USA decides to push it eastward - the USA can raise another army, the USSR - after years of human wave attacks - cannot. Britain, after needlessly bloating the Bomber Command and Navy, is left with a small army which it cannot expand either. Canada screams in anguish as its male population is decimated, with most of the 20-30 age cohort simply ... gone.

 

[Agent23]

1939? Indeed, lots of fun.
Poland shits itself, having millions of Soviet troops to its WEST. However, all those Soviet tanks and planes will stop running inside days as fuel ends. A good thing for the Red Army that it still has lots of horse drawn transport.
Also - several hundred thousand PEOPLES Polish Army troops came along too. I imagine that some will rebel and break through to the Fatherland or go over the Allies, but I'd guess that most will be disarmed and/or massacred.
The II Republic mobilizes and prepares to fight.

The western powers suddenly have a headache ...


1945?
The Allies lost almost all their combat troops, in the ETO only REMFs and the forces in Italy are left. And the flyboys - these will be relevant and become even more self important.
USSR is screwed if the USA decides to push it eastward - the USA can raise another army, the USSR - after years of human wave attacks - cannot. Britain, after needlessly bloating the Bomber Command and Navy, is left with a small army which it cannot expand either. Canada screams in anguish as its male population is decimated, with most of the 20-30 age cohort simply ... gone.

Do you think that the increased quality of hardened troops and equipment refined after 6 years of war will be sufficient to destroy the Germans?

 

[Buba]

In 1945 almost all those hardened troops are gone as they were on German soil and overwritten with 1939 German clay, no?
Remember that 7.V.1939 Germany includes Czechia and Austria.

The equipment matters, of course. The 1939 Kriegsmarine and Luftwaffe are destroyed inside a few days of hostilities.

 

[WolfBear]

In 1945 almost all those hardened troops are gone as they were on German soil and overwritten with 1939 German clay, no?
Remember that 7.V.1939 Germany includes Czechia and Austria.

The equipment matters, of course. The 1939 Kriegsmarine and Luftwaffe are destroyed inside a few days of hostilities.

Could the Allies rely much more on French troops in this TL? Or would a lot of those also disappear in this TL? France's young male population was not decimated in WWII like it was in WWI, but a lot of French troops might have also disappeared along with Germany in this TL.

 

[Agent23]

In 1945 almost all those hardened troops are gone as they were on German soil and overwritten with 1939 German clay, no?
Remember that 7.V.1939 Germany includes Czechia and Austria.

Humm, I was thinking about Germany proper, as seen by the allies.
I think Austria was a separate occupation zone and so was Czechia.

The equipment matters, of course. The 1939 Kriegsmarine and Luftwaffe are destroyed inside a few days of hostilities.

Methinks there will be a Berlin go Boom in this TL.

I wonder if this will be enough for the Americans to share nuclear tech with the British and the USSR.

How long will the Upstream TL war take?

 

[stevep]

The loss of the OTL forces when Germany disappears will hurt but even the British have a fair amount of other forces elsewhere, especially in the far east which can be called back. For the US they have a lot of units available or training up and can produce more.

The Soviets will probably be hit less hard because their occupying a smaller proportion of Germany than the western allies, although if the Czech region is included this would increase. [Mind you since US forces reached into that region this early then they could lose forces there as well as their probably not pulled back yet.

The Germans will have a lot of men but their technology is now outdated and their going to be hit by a storm of air attacks once the allies realise what's happened, along with ground pressure from the Soviets then as they regroup the western powers. You could see the Soviets take more territory as they will have more ground forces in the region given their occupying Poland and the Balkans.

One butterfly here. As a result of the crisis in Europe there's going to be less pressure on Japan for a while and the Soviets probably won't be in a position to invade Manchuria when the nuclear bombs go in. As such you could see a 3rd bomb used possibly and less Soviet involvement in the area?

 

[Buba]

What about internal German politics in '39->45 Germany?
Learning of events - Hitler toppled and "peace" (as '39 Germany was not at war with anybody) sought? With the "yet to commit mass atrocities" Wehrmacht in charge, would that be an acceptable regime change?
What if Hitler sees wisdom in "quit while ahead" and holds out an olive branch? I know that his credibility is not very high, but the Allies have more means of enforcing compliance than in 1939. Hence Hitler dies in bed, ranked alongside great statesmen of the XXth century like Lenin, Mao, Stalin ...

 

[stevep]

What about internal German politics in '39->45 Germany?
Learning of events - Hitler toppled and "peace" (as '39 Germany was not at war with anybody) sought? With the "yet to commit mass atrocities" Wehrmacht in charge, would that be an acceptable regime change?
What if Hitler sees wisdom in "quit while ahead" and holds out an olive branch? I know that his credibility is not very high, but the Allies have more means of enforcing compliance than in 1939. Hence Hitler dies in bed, ranked alongside great statesmen of the XXth century like Lenin, Mao, Stalin ...

A military coup, a strong purge of the Nazis from power and the reversal of the annexation of the Czech republic might work but so many of the military are so heavily implicated in so many atrocities that they could have problems being accepted.

On the 2nd I don't think, even if Hitler would accept such an idea that it would be acceptable to any of the great powers either in terms of leadership or the population. Its taken so much blood, destruction and money to haul down his empire that even if he was willing to resign and given up the Czech state no one would believe him.

 

[Agent23]

One butterfly here. As a result of the crisis in Europe there's going to be less pressure on Japan for a while and the Soviets probably won't be in a position to invade Manchuria when the nuclear bombs go in. As such you could see a 3rd bomb used possibly and less Soviet involvement in the area?

I am pretty sure that if Germany doesn't purge Hitler and pull out from the occupied territories ASAP as @Buba suggested the first few nukes will be dropped over Berlin and whatever is the second largest city at the time.

 

[ATP]

An ASB with a sense of humor decides that swapping defeated and rearming Germany might be fun.
The ISOT happens on the 7th Of may for both timelines.

What would the upstream Allies reaction be.

How will the downstream world react to all of the duplicates and the destroyed Germany they have to deal with now?

1939 - soviets could try take on Poland from both sides - probem is,their forces in Germany would lost fuel.Sralin was cautious,so probably no war.
American and british forces there would wait for orders.
Polish forces there would come back to Poland,without soviet officers in case of polish soviets.

If Sralin do not attack - stronger Poland,England,USA,soviets,even France - they woud get new toys.

1945 - germans could try ask for peace,Poland would have chance for freedom - soviets just lost its army.
Knowing Hitler - probably military coup.SS had how many? 3? SS dyvisions.

 

[Agent23]

Knowing Hitler - probably military coup.SS had how many? 3? SS dyvisions.

I think that the SS divisions were created/expanded towards the end of the war.
Control over the Gestapo would be a bigger problem.

 

[Buba]

Mid '39? SS has three poorly trained motorised infantry regiments.

 

[ATP]

Mid '39? SS has three poorly trained motorised infantry regiments.

Then german generals from 1939 in 1945 would made putch,leave czech,and gave Hitler and other NSDAP dudes to Allies.
Althought they still lost East Prussia to soviets.
Poland...we would be fucked like in OTL,but,without getting germans lands,maybe Wilno and Lwów would remain in Poland.
And MAYBE we would be partially free,like Finland in OTL.

 

[Agent23]

Then german generals from 1939 in 1945 would made putch,leave czech,and gave Hitler and other NSDAP dudes to Allies.
Althought they still lost East Prussia to soviets.
Poland...we would be fucked like in OTL,but,without getting germans lands,maybe Wilno and Lwów would remain in Poland.
And MAYBE we would be partially free,like Finland in OTL.

You forgot the HaHa Nuke go boom! Over Berlin.

 

[ATP]

You forgot the HaHa Nuke go boom! Over Berlin.

Why USA would do so,if they get Hitler,Himmler&others on golden plate?
About rest of Europe - since soviets lost their army,not only Poland,but also Bulgary coud remain partially free.

 

[stevep]

Why USA would do so,if they get Hitler,Himmler&others on golden plate?
About rest of Europe - since soviets lost their army,not only Poland,but also Bulgary coud remain partially free.

Because its 1945 US that is fully aware of all the Germans have done under fascism, - as with other allied states. Their not going to allow the people responsible for that to go free. Especially since while somewhat backwards technologically this is a Germany with still its full manpower and desire for military expansion.

This assumes of course that 1939 Germany after a military coup that could be very hard to arrange, is willing to give up the Czech lands.

 

[stevep]

An ASB with a sense of humor decides that swapping defeated and rearming Germany might be fun.
The ISOT happens on the 7th Of may for both timelines.

What would the upstream Allies reaction be.

How will the downstream world react to all of the duplicates and the destroyed Germany they have to deal with now?

We;re all overlooked that last bit I think but interesting. You have a lot of Russians, Americans, Brits and others now occupying this ruined Germany, which will be a hell of a shock for their 1939 nations, especially since all those people will have younger 1939 versions which is going to cause a lot of family issues. There will also be similar issues with assorted death camp survivors and forced labourers scattered around the remains of the 3rd Reich.

Plus you have Soviet forces separated from the 1939 Soviet empire, which lacks control of any of Poland, Bessarabia, a chunk of Czechoslvakia, the Baltic States or parts of Finland. Stalin, when he hears about it will want to 'correct' this but I could see the allies opposing such a move. The 45 forces for all powers are going to be formidable but in many areas they will have sustainability issues with lack of spare parts even if they can be reached from their homeland.

The devastation in Germany will be horrify the western powers and probably even a fair number of down-time Soviets while when they hear what the Germans had done across Europe!

There's also the issue of the Far East. Japan is invading China but news of its later actions, especially the attacks on Pearl and the Philippines are going to cause a significant cooling of relations with the western powers. This might be avoided if there's a war with Stalin but if not I can see Japan in for a kicking. Probably by a quick economic embargo while Japan is in a much weaker position to try lashing out at the western powers in 1939 even without Germany and Italy being removed as a threat.

 

[ATP]

Because its 1945 US that is fully aware of all the Germans have done under fascism, - as with other allied states. Their not going to allow the people responsible for that to go free. Especially since while somewhat backwards technologically this is a Germany with still its full manpower and desire for military expansion.

This assumes of course that 1939 Germany after a military coup that could be very hard to arrange, is willing to give up the Czech lands.

Logical,FDR would go for that.What next? sralin would want Europe,would FDR here gave it to him noe,when he do not have army ?
And you are right,even after putch germans would not agree to gave up on Sudetenland.
So,what would happen to Central Europe in this TL?

Europe from 1939 - it would be more funny.I see american army trying to contact USA and finding themselves there wanting peace.

 

[Agent23]

Why USA would do so,if they get Hitler,Himmler&others on golden plate?
About rest of Europe - since soviets lost their army,not only Poland,but also Bulgary coud remain partially free.

Because since the Nazis already control mass media and have their secret police infiltrating most civil organizations and the military, so the Germans will need a bit of a nudge, maybe a dozen kilotons or so, to go in the right direction.

TBH the best we can hope for is mass Finlandization in the 1945 timeline, by this point we were actually contributing troops and were occupied by the USSR, and there is a saying that wherever a russian/soviet boot steps in it doesn't really step back.
If anything, the blowback after WWII was less than that after WWI, and we actually gained territory btw, and the Soviets were fine with that, and there was a sizable pro-Russian section of the population as well as a decent number of homegrown commies.
The interwar and pre-war periods were far from kind to us, so that was only to be expected.

Frankly I would have preferred if my country had stayed fully neutral in both World Wars, given our geography, though, that is nearly impossible.