raharris1973
Well-known member
What if in 1910 Germany realized how diplomatically isolated it was in Europe, to the extent even of catching wind of the secret Russo-Italian Racconigi Bargain over the Balkans, and understood their only partner was Austria-Hungary, and nobody liked Austria-Hungary.
And, if furthermore, upon making this realization, they decide it is an unacceptable strategic situation, both diplomatic, or for going to war, or if heaven forbid, war his forced on Germany directly or through its alliance with Austria-Hungary. It is an unacceptable strategic situation because it is situation where any way you slice it, defensive war, offensive war, diplomatic conference, too many great powers combine to defeat the German-Austrian coalition.
Therefore the Germans take the next logical step, and *act* diplomatically to shake up the unfavorable coalition.
They quickly ruling out breaking encirclement through France, because revanche.
They rule out counting on Britain, because aloofness, prior disappointment, naval conditions, "perfidiousness"
That leaves Russia....
...and closer to home, regaining Italy's loyalty.
So what if Germany puts out diplomatic feelers to St. Petersburg and to Rome that it is open to a new bargain, it is happy to concede and support resolution of Balkan and Near Eastern issues *entirely* to their satisfaction, and Austro-Hungarian objections are no bar to this. Vienna's foreign policy interests can be thrown entirely under the bus.
So, Russia, if you want carte blanche to shape the future of present-day Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, and the Ottoman Empire (except for the Adriatic shore), you've got Germany's blessing. If Austria objects, we'll tell them we're not supporting them.
So, Italy, if you want carte blanche to shape the future not just of Libya, but also of Montenegro, Albania, Greece, you've got Germany's blessing. If Austria objects, we'll tell them we're not supporting them.
This is not actually promising either of them the land the Austria-Hungary sovereign-ly owns, but anything it might consider externally its sphere of influence.
If Russia and Italy turn out to have an irreconcilable sphere of influence difference (which I doubt), obviously go for Russia, which is more important.
...Have "the talk" with Austria-Hungary. Let them know how things are and they are not getting extended support in Balkan, Near Eastern, Ottoman affairs. If and when they reply, "you just lost your last ally pal", you reply, "were you going to go, pal?", "more countries actually want stuff from you than from us, with the one exception of France, and all of them think they have a better chance of getting it from you."...
And, if furthermore, upon making this realization, they decide it is an unacceptable strategic situation, both diplomatic, or for going to war, or if heaven forbid, war his forced on Germany directly or through its alliance with Austria-Hungary. It is an unacceptable strategic situation because it is situation where any way you slice it, defensive war, offensive war, diplomatic conference, too many great powers combine to defeat the German-Austrian coalition.
Therefore the Germans take the next logical step, and *act* diplomatically to shake up the unfavorable coalition.
They quickly ruling out breaking encirclement through France, because revanche.
They rule out counting on Britain, because aloofness, prior disappointment, naval conditions, "perfidiousness"
That leaves Russia....
...and closer to home, regaining Italy's loyalty.
So what if Germany puts out diplomatic feelers to St. Petersburg and to Rome that it is open to a new bargain, it is happy to concede and support resolution of Balkan and Near Eastern issues *entirely* to their satisfaction, and Austro-Hungarian objections are no bar to this. Vienna's foreign policy interests can be thrown entirely under the bus.
So, Russia, if you want carte blanche to shape the future of present-day Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, and the Ottoman Empire (except for the Adriatic shore), you've got Germany's blessing. If Austria objects, we'll tell them we're not supporting them.
So, Italy, if you want carte blanche to shape the future not just of Libya, but also of Montenegro, Albania, Greece, you've got Germany's blessing. If Austria objects, we'll tell them we're not supporting them.
This is not actually promising either of them the land the Austria-Hungary sovereign-ly owns, but anything it might consider externally its sphere of influence.
If Russia and Italy turn out to have an irreconcilable sphere of influence difference (which I doubt), obviously go for Russia, which is more important.
...Have "the talk" with Austria-Hungary. Let them know how things are and they are not getting extended support in Balkan, Near Eastern, Ottoman affairs. If and when they reply, "you just lost your last ally pal", you reply, "were you going to go, pal?", "more countries actually want stuff from you than from us, with the one exception of France, and all of them think they have a better chance of getting it from you."...
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