17 years back - early 1927 Weimar Germany is ISOT'ed to early 1910 Europe

[raharris1973]

ASBs send the Weimar Republic of 1927 back in time to its same territorial footprint in 1910.

This means the 1910, 2nd Reich versions of Alsace-Lorraine, northern Schleswig and West Prussia & Posen still exist in international law as part of Germany.

The Germans have the front-line troops in those particular regions and fortresses (I like "clean" ISOTs, people away moving with the land they are on), but obviously they are not armed "in-depth" and they have lost the reserve structure as it existed in 1910 in the interior.

However, the Germans have more advanced technology and tactical/operational concepts.

How does Weimar Germany and the various components of its society (politicians, industry, workers, military) conduct itself in its new environment.

On the one hand, post-Versailles Germany had a big chip on its shoulder that could motivate a warlike attitude.

On the other hand, its basic set of revanchist claims, the 1914 European and colonial frontiers, have been granted.

Plus, while the population knew the suffering and costs and outcome of the war even while others had begun to nostalgia or glamorize it. Also, the reparations burden is entirely lifted/voided.

Is this Germany going to be trying to keep things peaceful and try to restrain Austria-Hungary or abandon its alliance with her?

Or is this Germany going to have internal political changes to an extreme regime and seek an opportunity for war on favorable terms?

As for the Entente powers, as news of future history flows in, will they be encouraged to aggress on Germany because they know they can win? Or because they think they better do it now before Germany can integrate its military systems and rearm in-depth?

This is the cabinet of the of the Weimar Republic at this time:

President Paul Hindenburg
Chancellor Wilhelm Marx - (Zentrum)
Minister of Defense - Otto Gessler
Chief of the Reichswehr - Wilhelm Heye
Chief of Navy - Hans Zenker
Minister of Foreign Affairs - Gustav Stresseman

Poll:
Will Germany be seeking war if sent back like this?
A) Yes
B) No
C) It will not, but the Entente will force a war, instead

 

[WolfBear]

After the experience of 1914-1918, No, there is no way in Hell that Germany is actually going to be looking for another war in this scenario. It's not led by Hitler, after all. But if Russia will ever still implode, Germany would likely be more than eager to expand its influence deeper into Eastern Europe. And Germany would have no beef at all with Poland in this TL, which would be great for German-Polish relations! If Poland will ever break away from Russia in this TL, Germany might aim to distract Poland from German-controlled Polish-majority territories by supporting Polish expansion into Belarus or even Ukraine if Ukrainian nationalism will turn out not to be a viable force in its own right.

 

[WolfBear]

BTW, Weimar Germany is likely to have the same kind of relationship with A-H as France will have with Russia: As in, Weimar Germany will likely view A-H as a semi-absolutist reactionary monarchy that's long past its prime and that is only its ally out of sheer necessity. I wouldn't be surprised to see Germany and France moving closer together while A-H and Russia simultaneously move closer together--though Germany can try preempting this if it wants to by aiming to partition A-H together with Russia and various other countries. Still, even this in itself would involve a major war, albeit much milder than our TL's World War I.

 

[WolfBear]

I really wouldn't put it past the Germans to, if Franz Ferdinand lives, use a 1917 crisis in Austria-Hungary to break up the empire. In such a scenario, Germany and Russia could insist on Hungary getting independence while Romania, Serbia, and Italy have some but not all of their territorial claims satisfied and also insist on a German annexation of German Austria along with a German vassalization of Czechia if Franz Ferdinand will refuse to go along with this Germano-Russian plan.

 

[raharris1973]

BTW, Weimar Germany is likely to have the same kind of relationship with A-H as France will have with Russia: As in, Weimar Germany will likely view A-H as a semi-absolutist reactionary monarchy that's long past its prime and that is only its ally out of sheer necessity. I wouldn't be surprised to see Germany and France moving closer together while A-H and Russia simultaneously move closer together--though Germany can try preempting this if it wants to by aiming to partition A-H together with Russia and various other countries. Still, even this in itself would involve a major war, albeit much milder than our TL's World War I.

This is a unique, but interesting take. I'll have to give it some more thought.

After the experience of 1914-1918, No, there is no way in Hell that Germany is actually going to be looking for another war in this scenario.

Yeah, but on hearing the "news from the future" that Germany attacked *them*, but they won anyway, might the French and other Entente countries go looking to fight Germany soonest to get Alsace-Lorraine and crush the threat?

I agree that, on balance, the Germans, even the right-wing, are not going to be *initiating* a look for a rematch. Sure they know some tactical and technological tricks, and they have bitter feelings against the Entente, and they could try to catch the Entente "unawares" for revenge. But, since the ISOT automatically also gives them all their downtime colonies back, Alsace-Lorraine back, Eupen-Malmedy back, north Schleswig, Posen, West Prussia and Lower Silesia, the Germans already have pretty much their whole territorial wish list back by magic. They've been made whole again. The only territorial goals to fight for would be hypothetical ones like the old Septemberprogram, or Lebensbraum. That might inspire guys like Ludendorff or Hitler, but not the mass public or military brass.

 

[WolfBear]

This is a unique, but interesting take. I'll have to give it some more thought.

Yeah, I mean, I just think that FF's semi-absolutism is going to be a bit in tension with a democratic republic where socialists are going to have a huge role. Weimar Germany would be more comparable to France while Austria-Hungary would be more comparable to Russia. And Yeah, the threat of partitioning A-H alongside Russia would be a useful tool by Germany in order to get A-H to properly behave itself. Though if FF lives, then A-H might not need much encouragement to do this. FF was pretty restrained in his foreign policy views, after all.

Yeah, but on hearing the "news from the future" that Germany attacked *them*, but they won anyway, might the French and other Entente countries go looking to fight Germany soonest to get Alsace-Lorraine and crush the threat?

No, because Germany would be aware that in a repeat of WWI, all it would have to do would be to avoid USW and it would win due to the fact that the Entente's financial situation will become rather dire by the third year of the war or so. Unless you're suggesting having the Entente attack Germany while most of Germany is still unarmed, but then the Germans are going to wage an extremely brutal insurgency against them, similar to what the francs-tirers did in northern France in 1870-1871.

I agree that, on balance, the Germans, even the right-wing, are not going to be *initiating* a look for a rematch. Sure they know some tactical and technological tricks, and they have bitter feelings against the Entente, and they could try to catch the Entente "unawares" for revenge. But, since the ISOT automatically also gives them all their downtime colonies back, Alsace-Lorraine back, Eupen-Malmedy back, north Schleswig, Posen, West Prussia and Lower Silesia, the Germans already have pretty much their whole territorial wish list back by magic. They've been made whole again. The only territorial goals to fight for would be hypothetical ones like the old Septemberprogram, or Lebensbraum. That might inspire guys like Ludendorff or Hitler, but not the mass public or military brass.

Completely agreed. And Lebensraum im Osten could eventually be attained in any case if Russia will ever subsequently implode, in which case Germany could move into the subsequent resulting power vacuum in Eastern Europe.

 

[raharris1973]

I really wouldn't put it past the Germans to, if Franz Ferdinand lives, use a 1917 crisis in Austria-Hungary to break up the empire. In such a scenario, Germany and Russia could insist on Hungary getting independence while Romania, Serbia, and Italy have some but not all of their territorial claims satisfied and also insist on a German annexation of German Austria along with a German vassalization of Czechia if Franz Ferdinand will refuse to go along with this Germano-Russian plan.

Can we be sure that Russia is happy and sanguine about Germany expanding at all, even into just Austria?

Not to mention, might France find German acquisition of German Austria unacceptable, and a casus belli?

 

[WolfBear]

Can we be sure that Russia is happy and sanguine about Germany expanding at all, even into just Austria?

Not to mention, might France find German acquisition of German Austria unacceptable, and a casus belli?

That depends--what's the price for Russia to be bought off? Galicia? Subcarpathian Ruthenia on top of that? Northern Bukovina on top of that?

For this to happen, it would actually need its Russian ally on its side, and Germany might try bringing Russia with some Austrian territories.

 

[raharris1973]

Yeah, but on hearing the "news from the future" that Germany attacked *them*, but they won anyway, might the French and other Entente countries go looking to fight Germany soonest to get Alsace-Lorraine and crush the threat?

No, because Germany would be aware that in a repeat of WWI, all it would have to do would be to avoid USW and it would win due to the fact that the Entente's financial situation will become rather dire by the third year of the war or so. Unless you're suggesting having the Entente attack Germany while most of Germany is still unarmed, but then the Germans are going to wage an extremely brutal insurgency against them, similar to what the francs-tirers did in northern France in 1870-1871.

Re-read this again and you'll see why your response doesn't quite add up.

The premise of this portion of the conversation is that it's the Entente choosing to attack the Germans, not vice versa, especially the French.

But your counter, is that the *Germans* would know better, because they would have the recipe to win this time by just avoiding USW and letting the Entente financially collapse. Maybe that could work to help Germany survive, but it doesn't matter for French decisions what *Germany* knows unless they tell the French and the French actually believe it. It's what the French believe that matters in terms of them starting a war, not what the Germans believe.

Also, the threat of insurgency is a poor deterrent, because it's not highly visible. Insurgency is only used when you don't have a stand-up, positional military. Threatening an aggressor with an insurgency is likely to get the aggressor to say, "you're just saying that because you can't fight now."

 

[WolfBear]

Re-read this again and you'll see why your response doesn't quite add up.

The premise of this portion of the conversation is that it's the Entente choosing to attack the Germans, not vice versa, especially the French.

But your counter, is that the *Germans* would know better, because they would have the recipe to win this time by just avoiding USW and letting the Entente financially collapse. Maybe that could work to help Germany survive, but it doesn't matter for French decisions what *Germany* knows unless they tell the French and the French actually believe it. It's what the French believe that matters in terms of them starting a war, not what the Germans believe.

Also, the threat of insurgency is a poor deterrent, because it's not highly visible. Insurgency is only used when you don't have a stand-up, positional military. Threatening an aggressor with an insurgency is likely to get the aggressor to say, "you're just saying that because you can't fight now."

Yeah, fair points. That said, though, would the French really object if a fellow republic like themselves were to expand at Austria-Hungary's expense? Especially if Germany offered to combine this expansion with a German entry into the Franco-Russian alliance AND a plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine?

 

[Atarlost]

Yeah, fair points. That said, though, would the French really object if a fellow republic like themselves were to expand at Austria-Hungary's expense? Especially if Germany offered to combine this expansion with a German entry into the Franco-Russian alliance AND a plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine?

They'd never offer a plebiscite in Elsass-Lothringen. Their voters would crucify them after they miraculously got it back no matter what promises they were getting in return.

 

[WolfBear]

They'd never offer a plebiscite in Elsass-Lothringen. Their voters would crucify them after they miraculously got it back no matter what promises they were getting in return.

Which voters? Because AFAIK, Weimar Germany didn't care all that much about Alsace-Lorraine.

 

[Atarlost]

Which voters? Because AFAIK, Weimar Germany didn't care all that much about Alsace-Lorraine.

They cared a great deal about pride. That's how someone who's entire platform was German supremacy got elected chancellor.

 

[WolfBear]

They cared a great deal about pride. That's how someone who's entire platform was German supremacy got elected chancellor.

That was only during the Great Depression; before that, the Nazi Party was fringe and didn't get very many votes.

 

[Eparkhos]

What about the Imperial-German territories not in the Weimar Republic? DO you think they'd be more like to join the Weimar Republic or look for foreign protection or even try to establish their own governments? Alscae-Lorraine is definitely going to be taken by the French, but it seems to me that Eupen-Malmedy, Posen, Upper Silesia, Danzig and Memel are all up in the air as is.

 

[WolfBear]

What about the Imperial-German territories not in the Weimar Republic? DO you think they'd be more like to join the Weimar Republic or look for foreign protection or even try to establish their own governments? Alscae-Lorraine is definitely going to be taken by the French, but it seems to me that Eupen-Malmedy, Posen, Upper Silesia, Danzig and Memel are all up in the air as is.

Weimar Germany might lay a claim to all of these territories, but Yeah, it's largely disarmed in 1927, so I'm not sure that its military could even fight the 1910 Franco-Russians to a stalemate in any war. What do you think?

 

[raharris1973]

Alscae-Lorraine is definitely going to be taken by the French

Why is that a definite - It's got a hefty, hefty chunk of the 1910 German Army and border fortifications sitting on top of it. It's got a population of mixed loyalties. The French, if they start, and win a war, would want to take it, but they would have to actively make that decision. It's not predestined.

 

[WolfBear]

Why is that a definite - It's got a hefty, hefty chunk of the 1910 German Army and border fortifications sitting on top of it. It's got a population of mixed loyalties. The French, if they start, and win a war, would want to take it, but they would have to actively make that decision. It's not predestined.

Agreed.

Anyway, Weimar Germany can start defusing the Alsace-Lorraine situation by giving genuine autonomy to the people there. So, no incidents like the Zabern Affair, that's for sure!

 

[stevep]

Two points that haven't been mentioned yet.
a) Without the Kaiser and with the current size of the German fleet there is a decent chance to improve relations with Britain. Assuming of course that Wilhelm doesn't try to regain his throne, although I think that's unlikely to succeed.

b) Assuming non-Germans in the affected region at the time are brought back then that's going to mean details will pass to other countries. As such there will be a lot of news that will shock many, the huge costs of the war, assorted technological changes and issues and the collapse of the eastern empires [German, Austrian, Russian and Turkish] as well as many other events.

This also raises other issues.
c) France, once it gets news of the next 17 years will have a strong incentive to invade and might well do so if they can get Russian support. At the moment Germany is markedly weakened because the demilitarized state of the Weimar military and the disconnect between it and the down-time German remnants. However it will have some details of the advances of technology during the war and since so it will fear that a rearmed Germany with 1927 technology would be a serious threat. Whether a Weimar dominated Germany would actual pose a military threat might be irrelevant as French and Russian fears could be more significant.

If they do I would expect the two to win simply because German is under-armed at this point and I doubt it would have the time to mobilize men and equip them. Or build say a new air force in time - the possibility of which would be a huge issue for everybody else. However it would be bloody and a lot would depend on what down-time forces are available to Germany, i.e. how the peace time demobilized forces compare with the strength of forces when mobilization was completed in 1914. Although in turn neither France nor Russia are as strong as they were in 1914 yet. As such,. IF a Franco-Russian attack was quickly launched I could be wrong.

I would suspect that Britain would stay neutral on this issue without the invasion of Belgium and because the Liberal government, in the midst of a major conflict with the House of Lords wouldn't be that inclined to enter what's likely to be very bloody. Not sure what Italy or the Ottomans would do but would expect Austria to support Germany in such a case - as Germany, even this vastly different one is its only ally.

d) If war doesn't occur or for those nations that aren't involved then there would be a huge rush to catch up with Weimar Germany, both in terms of military equipment and technology and later in general economic and industrial issues.

e) As mentioned above a lot of people will be astonished as to events reported by the up-timers. Things like votes for women, the US gaining naval equality with the UK and bringing in prohibition, the Armenian genocide, the collapse of the Liberal Party in the UK and also partition of Ireland and many other developments. A lot of people could find their careers affected compared to OTL given reports of their latter actions. For instance the 1912 Presidential campaign as does Teddy R still fail to get the Republican nomination and if so does he still stand knowing it will [probably] mean a Democratic victory. Does Britain push for self-government in India to avoid some of the issues their heard about - although that would cause another clash with the Tories and the Lords I suspect.

f) I can't see a Franco-German alliance or even pact as not only with France still want A-L but its going to be very worried about the sort of military power Germany could and probably would become if allowed time to rearm.

Plenty of other issues but their the ones that come to mind.

Steve

 

[Buba]

This means the 1910, 2nd Reich versions of Alsace-Lorraine, northern Schleswig and West Prussia & Posen still exist in international law as part of Germany.

The Germans have the front-line troops in those particular regions and fortresses

Hence to military calculations one must add:
- half of V Posensches, part of I Pommersches, and the whole XVII West Preussisches Amrmee Korps in the east
- small part of XIV Badenisches, all of XV Elsassisches and XVI Lothringenisches, and most of XIX Ost Lothringenisches in the west

So, some 8-9 InfDiv on top of the Reischswehr. The men and equipment are (mostly) on the spot. True, as mentioned, no material reserve for them.
And don't forget all the equipment the UT Germans had hidden.
The Reichswehr can easily be expanded using its highly trained professionals and enthusiastic WWI veterans.