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This is exactly my sentiment. Right, I don't see their arsenal as even remotely suitable for a first strike on the USA; the consequences are far too dire to nuke for any provocation less than being nuked. But they do have enough nukes to make any other power with sense not want to nuke them...

It's strategic enough. Their retaliatory strike wouldn't end us as a nation but it's plenty able to work as a deterrent. Plus, they're probably thinking in terms of great powers instead of the cold war superalliances—there's no bonus achieved for being able to target every major city in the...

Believe it or not, the average Chinese person has a family that they care about. China may be authoritarian but I imagine they rely on there not being a vast supermajority of people who hate them. And I'm not even saying the regime couldn't survive liquidating its geriatrics, I'm saying that if...

I'm not sure what you're talking about here, since it's #2 by land area, #4 counting coastal waters.

I don't know who was saying China would already be having problems by now, but that wasn't something I ever believed. We'll see. I don't think even China would be able to get away with a "euthanize Grandma" policy without massive internal instability. As for "having enough people", they...

I'm not convinced their navy will be fit to go toe to toe with the USN in a decade or less, but that might be about the speed they have to do it at if the demographic projections are correct. They'll be increasingly burdened with an aging population and have to pivot to domestic issues to handle...

Personally speaking, I'd much rather have an argument that was well-sourced in some areas, and was marked with "reasons" in others, than one that doesn't exist and you're just here going "y'all're wrong." But please make sure to have a good hard think about whether posting your conclusion and...