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Some interesting ideas here. General agreement but some doubt on Stalin not going to war in say 1933-34. If the Japanese are increasingly bogged down deep in China and earning international outrage as a result it could look an attractive option for him. Especially if he continues to support...

Well Hosho was pretty tiny and slow, rather like HMS Hermes. Kaga and Akagi with their rebuilds delayed would face problems as at least one of the launch decks would be of limited use as a/c size and performance increase. See IJN Kaga for a little more on this. Also the Kongo's may not be...

That would depend on whether oil exports - more specifically to Japan - are that important by the time an embargo is considered. It could be that by that time there is enough money circulating and pick up of world trade generally Japan is largely irrelevant to the US economically. Not to...

Is there that much carrier based air at this point? Although unless there's major acceleration in its development there's no radar so all ships are more vulnerable to air attack when the a/c can find them. On the other hand a/c are a lot more fragile and limited in capacity than OTL and they...

I would say some other things to consider. a) In 33 the world is deep in depression so that will affect how all the nations and groups involved act. World trade is at a long term low because many countries have followed the US into deep protectionism for instance. Even Britain has finally...