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  1. sillygoose

    If Franz Ferdinand would have lived, what would have been the risk of an eventual A-H-Italy war?

    They probably would only join in if they think they could tip the balance; they wouldn't join in if they thought they'd lose. Hell no. The British government never really cared about Belgian neutrality, they used it as casus belli. All it would ensure is British neutrality officially (not...
  2. sillygoose

    If Franz Ferdinand would have lived, what would have been the risk of an eventual A-H-Italy war?

    I suppose that comes down to the confidence Germany has that France won't attack. Much would hinge on how well the CPs are doing in the war; if the chance to strike is there France might attack anyway without mobilizing for speed, surprise, and to avoid the socialists stopping the war effort by...
  3. sillygoose

    If Franz Ferdinand would have lived, what would have been the risk of an eventual A-H-Italy war?

    Russia after its build up started in 1914 and due to be complete in 1917 plus a 'little entente' could be enough even if France stays out, but creates uncertainty in Germany about their intervention and requiring military screening just in case which siphons off enough strength to tip the balance.
  4. sillygoose

    If Franz Ferdinand would have lived, what would have been the risk of an eventual A-H-Italy war?

    In 1917 who knows? The Russian military build up would be ready and if they can get a small nation coalition who knows.
  5. sillygoose

    If Franz Ferdinand would have lived, what would have been the risk of an eventual A-H-Italy war?

    Yes. Russia might, but the smaller states would not risk being first since they knew that any such thing would result in a 'rally around the flag' effect for A-H. It would clearly force Italy to side with Austria in that situation per their treaty; WW1 saw them slip out due to a technicality...
  6. sillygoose

    If Franz Ferdinand would have lived, what would have been the risk of an eventual A-H-Italy war?

    Not without being internationally isolated for invading an ally. If there was another invasion going on by say Russia and it came with entry into the Entente then yes, but otherwise no, Italy is not going out on a limb because they know it will cause a rally around the flag effect and perhaps...
  7. sillygoose

    If Franz Ferdinand would have lived, what would have been the risk of an eventual A-H-Italy war?

    Without any other major war going on at the same time? None since they were allied and Italy wasn't going to go it alone against A-H. Conrad was more anti-Italian AFAIK though, despite his Italian mistress who later became his wife.
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