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You should read the BBG sessions subforum sometime: https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/1563/rise-and-decline-third-reich It was initially released in '74 and good games can take months to play.

That's the game. I first mentioned it here with:

This "what-if" is actually something very skilled Third Reich players do in Fall 1939 when they've got the Italians with over a 90% chance of success using just the laughably inadaquate Italian starting forces. If someone who knows what they're doing waits until Winter it's 83.33% with "I might...