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Yeah, just one correction: If Vichy France is a member of the Axis, then the Japanese might never attack French Indochina so long as it remains under Vichy French rule for fear of pissing off Nazi Germany. But if/once the Brits conquer French Indochina from Vichy France, then the Japanese decide...

Maybe Vichy France actually joins the war as an ally of Nazi Germany instead of remaining neutral, in which case Britain can try occupying French Indochina before the Japanese get there and the Japanese decide not to pick a fight with the British over this issue, feeling that a fight with...