AHC: French Indochina is never Japanese occupied in WWII

[raharris1973]

Here is the challenge- there must be a World War Two with American and Soviet theaters in Europe against Germany, and American and Soviet theaters (even if brief) against Japan in the Asia-Pacific. However, in contrast to OTL, French Indochina never ends up Japanese occupied during this war.

 

[stevep]

Here is the challenge- there must be a World War Two with American and Soviet theaters in Europe against Germany, and American and Soviet theaters (even if brief) against Japan in the Asia-Pacific. However, in contrast to OTL, French Indochina never ends up Japanese occupied during this war.

Well if FIC is never under Japanese control then Malaya might survive or fall later to Japanese forces occupying Java and then Sumatra isolating it. Which could have some big butterflies either way.

Its likely that the US entry into the European war would come later, but probably within a year of OTL. How a western-Japanese war came about would depend on the circumstances. Do the western powers still put such a tight embargo on Japanese imports as OTL without their occupation of FIC?

 

[Buba]

Tough call.
Although I suppose that in a FFO scenario the FIC is the first line of defense and does not fall, being better garrisoned and in part due to the Japanes not having their insane OTL luck.
E.g. have the invasion fleet run into a dozen MN, KNM or RN submarines ...

 

[WolfBear]

Here is the challenge- there must be a World War Two with American and Soviet theaters in Europe against Germany, and American and Soviet theaters (even if brief) against Japan in the Asia-Pacific. However, in contrast to OTL, French Indochina never ends up Japanese occupied during this war.

Maybe Vichy France actually joins the war as an ally of Nazi Germany instead of remaining neutral, in which case Britain can try occupying French Indochina before the Japanese get there and the Japanese decide not to pick a fight with the British over this issue, feeling that a fight with Britain plus US sanctions would be too much for Japan to handle at once?

 

[raharris1973]

Tough call.
Although I suppose that in a FFO scenario the FIC is the first line of defense and does not fall, being better garrisoned and in part due to the Japanes not having their insane OTL luck.
E.g. have the invasion fleet run into a dozen MN, KNM or RN submarines ...

With the survivors who land cut down by local forces cut down by FIC forces augmented with some Indian troops, esp. some Gurkhas, and some Chinese crossed over the border to provide numbers.

Maybe Vichy France actually joins the war as an ally of Nazi Germany instead of remaining neutral, in which case Britain can try occupying French Indochina before the Japanese get there and the Japanese decide not to pick a fight with the British over this issue, feeling that a fight with Britain plus US sanctions would be too much for Japan to handle at once?

Both of these are creative and interesting solutions!

 

[WolfBear]

Both of these are creative and interesting solutions!

Yeah, just one correction: If Vichy France is a member of the Axis, then the Japanese might never attack French Indochina so long as it remains under Vichy French rule for fear of pissing off Nazi Germany. But if/once the Brits conquer French Indochina from Vichy France, then the Japanese decide not to fight the Brits over this for fear of a long war with Britain plus crippling US sanctions?

 

[Buba]

The main point is that if FFO then the Japanese do not install themselves there "peacefully" and have to fight their way in.
Sorry for ambiguity.

 

[stevep]

The main point is that if FFO then the Japanese do not install themselves there "peacefully" and have to fight their way in.
Sorry for ambiguity.

OK thanks for clarifying. In which case what does Vichy decide when Japan seeks to install themselves violently, possibly using some arranged Thai-French clash as an excuse as OTL? That probably depends on Hitler's response. Suspect he would support Japan in which case Vichy itself would do nothing but that would mean they lose credibility and hence possibly see some defections to the Free French.

If Japan moves and establishes themselves in control quickly then I suspect Britain wouldn't go to war as - whether in late 40 or most of 41 we're far too heavily stretched. However its likely the UK and US would react with sanctions, probably at least as harsh as those that forced Japan to decide on war or climb down OTL.

In that case timing matters. If mid-late 41 then its probably going to be pretty much as OTL as the allies have little choice but to response roughly as OTL. However if in 1940, say shortly after the BoB starts - working on the basis that Japan would know Britain is continuing the conflict but too heavily pressed to act militarily - then Japan has to decide on war earlier. Which could be more difficult as they wouldn't have the same force pool and possibly not the same knowledge, such as developing torpedoes for a Pearl attack. Plus it might give a clearer incentive for Britain to get some more defences to the region, or possibly return the subs that were designed for the region but moved to Britain and then the Med and be somewhat less aggressive in areas such as the Balkans.

An occupation of FIC by force is going to have a bigger impact on US public opinion and possibly especially so if it occurs in late 40, with the suddenly collapse of France and then the BoB along with the Italian entry into the war and attack on Greece making somewhat of an avalanche of actions that makes a crisis for democracy and US interests more apparent.

 

[Buba]

The acronym FFO stands for France Fights On. Do a websearch
So there is no Vichy - it is the 3rd Republic in Exile.
Hence the Franco-Brit alliance holds, Japan cannot strongarm itself into FIC without causing a war first. The Japanese invasion would be in XII.41.

 

[stevep]

The acronym FFO stands for France Fights On. Do a websearch
So there is no Vichy - it is the 3rd Republic in Exile.
Hence the Franco-Brit alliance holds, Japan cannot strongarm itself into FIC without causing a war first. The Japanese invasion would be in XII.41.

Sorry missed the reference to FFO. [More haste less speed, or in this case accuracy] In that case a whole different ball-game. A lot would depend on what has happened prior to a Japanese attack on FIC. How much forces have the FF [Free French] managed to withdraw from mainland France, what support do they have logistically and what decisions have they made. For instances in some scenarios I've seen for it they seek to defend Corsica which is likely to be a massive drain of resources. Also can they clear Libya fairly quickly.

If so then the allies can, if they realise early enough, get some additional forces to FIC but its probably too exposed to last long, especially given the numbers Japan can put in and their air and sea superiority. However it would mean war with Britain and possibly by extension the DEI. [The Japanese would definitely like that as it would open chances to grab their resources.] The big issue here would be the US reaction. Given that its too early for L-L especially since French fighting on means they still have gold and other resources its unlikely to be a US dow and it would depend on US reactions as to whether Japan thinks it needs to attack the US or not.

If the US isn't involved in the war then its going to be very tough for the allies. Japan has a weaker start and need to take FIC 1st but they have a lot more resources available and can reinforce their attack while the allies would struggle to get additional forces from either Europe or N Africa and Indian and ANZ forces would be overstretched I fear.

If the US is involved then its an eventual allied victory but how far does Japan get before their stopped and then driven back. If they can be kept out of Malaya/Sumatra then it could be a much shorter, or at least less costly war in the Far East/Pacific for the allies. [Possibly not shorter once the Japanese are halted as they could be left to wither on the vine while the concentration on the main threat in Europe is fought].

 

[Buba]

FFO might not be the household term I imagined.
Sorry if I sounded brusque!

 

[raharris1973]

FFO changes the ballgame, but there could be reasons for somewhat optimistic version of a combined FFO and Italy stays neutral scenario for the Anglo-French position in the Far East, should the Japanese even dare attack.

For example, if the Japanese dare attack Indochina in late 1940, the French can resist, and the British DoW as well. With diplomatic good sense, the French can cede back territory in Indochina taken from Siam in the 1890s in order to secure Siam/Thailand's alliance or neutrality. Britain's ability to throw in support is limited, but then again, with no active Mediterranean, African or Greek fronts, it is not entirely absent. And then there's the Chinese. Sure, they are mostly preoccupied at home, but they can cooperate with the French forces in Indochina's northern and western hinterlands. Then the Japanese need to spread themselves thinner attacking all the British and Dutch bases in the region, and then the American too. So there's a chance of sections of Indochina remaining unconquered or of joint Franco-Chinese or Franco-British forces in either South China or Burma or Thailand being in a position to reconquer Indochina within a couple/few years and get reestablished on the ground.

 

[Buba]

If FFO Italy can either stay neutral or not
In the latter case I imagine Libya to be lost to Mussolini's cause as it cannot be supplied.
The MN is easily RM's peer and there would be no OTL Italian shipping route along the Tunisian coast. With the Italian DOW being a spark of inspiration on Duce's part, Libya does not possess stocks for operations. A self administered POW camp, really. Once gasoline runs out it could be ignored (but the Allies need a victory for propaganda, however ...).
Allied convoys should be able to run along the length of the Med, with eastern Algeria and Tunis providing air cover over the Sicilian Straits.

Would FDR impose an embargo and fiscal sanctions on Japan without the occupation of FIC, thus ensuring Japan's strike south? Would Japan strike south without the sanctions? I'm not knowledgeable enough.

Nevertheless the FIC should be better prepared.
Although the guys who wrote FFO had the French evacuate IMO ASB numbers of men, I still imagine low six digits as possible. Even if predominantly REMFs, then these would still provide the arty/recce/trains/signals/engineers to formations with non-French bayonets. The weapons would have to come from British or US factories, though.

As long as France keeps Haiphong (open) the RR to Kunming can be used to supply the Chinese.

 

[raharris1973]

in which case Britain can try occupying French Indochina

How many guys could the British try to send send there circa 1940-41, against Vichy resistance? Would the British be proclaiming formally they are claiming it for Free French rule, or be open for other political solutions? Moving first would give Japan an *excuse* to intervene also, although Japan exercising that intervention against Britain would have its complexities. And China would be observing the situation with bewilderment, but interest. They would not want Japan to have a role in that area- might they consider joining in support of British anti-Vichy occupation operations?

Of course, interventionary operations by fairly weak British and Chinese (and also Japanese) forces in Vichy Indochina have potential to get messy very fast and destabilize the Vichy regime, possibly putting any of the interveners in a position of having to make deals with local Vietnamese political factions as well as French factions.

 

[stevep]

FFO might not be the household term I imagined.
Sorry if I sounded brusque!

No problem. I was speeding and misread the term. Familiar with it although not read it in any detail and heard some suggestions that the initial version was somewhat wankish. - Mind you from a naval site I'm on, a few years back some of the people there had set up their own version and that had some oddities. For instance I think the Balkan conflict was avoided and possibly the USSR doing a little better so the allies were sending L-L through the Turkish straits - to link up with Soviet naval escorts, both of which sound unlikely to me. [In terms of the number of Soviet escorts available, Turkey sticking its neck out to allow this and if it did happen the Axis forcing Bulgaria into line, along with bases in Romania to make it a very costly process. Plus there was something about the US triggering the war in the Far East earlier than anyone expected by some slip up which meant no one was ready for war - but some years back so I can't remember many details.

 

[Buba]

Yes, FFO was a French wank. Quite understandable, BTW.
Oh, I was somewhat involved with one of the offshots - APOD.
And in the Days of Yore I used to be active on Warships1.

 

[stevep]

Yes, FFO was a French wank. Quite understandable, BTW.
Oh, I was somewhat involved with one of the offshots - APOD.
And in the Days of Yore I used to be active on Warships1.

Ah I think that's might have been what it was if what I said rings any bell. I was reading it at some point but lost touch. Possibly that was when I took some time off to look after my mum for a couple of years. Also IIRC a couple of the people were arguing for a rather weird ending with Japan launching some sort of partial orbital missiles that cause massive deaths in the US and UK using biological weapons that I found rather too oddball.

 

[Buba]

I did not follow FFO that closely. I know of the 1940 AU and a snippet of later events. With ASB elements like e.g. an entire USA Air Army on Crete in spite of the island not having enough port facilities to take in the necessary construction materials and equipment needed to build the necessary infrastructure before 1950 or so. Or to keep those 2000 or so planes flying and the tens of thousands of personel fed.
A nice "feel good" novel for Francophones and Francophiles
After all English language sites like this have no lack of WWII UK or USA fixit fics

 

[Buba]

Interesting suggestion on AH-com - have FIC declare for Free France.
Quite close in effect as FFO.

Having this guy rebel against the legitimate French Government is not that far a stretch ...

Georges Catroux - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

His successor doing same - calling in the Brits instead of agreeing to let the Japanese in - is not ASB either:

Jean Decoux - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Not having Winston "Ham Fisted Bully of Neutrals" Churchill as UK PM - and thus probably butterflying away events like Mers el Kebir - maybe could had made Catroux or Decoux (a Navy man!) switch?