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Unilaterally going against the principle of status qo ante after it was the result of peace talks you intiated just looks bad. Also, the war is unpopular, and Armenia would hae to be heavily fortified. Not worth it. The aftermath of the war is like a terrible hangover, and everybody just sort...

Precisely. A horrible and pointless war, but less total ruination and collapse of states = probably more support for some kind of international organisation of that kind than in OTL. I think status quo ante is status quo ante. Besides, if there isn't any hostile power with boots on the ground...

Only Austria-Hungary might want them gone, and even they ought to understand that removing the House of Karađorđević risks putting something far more hostile in power.

Yeah. The irony will not be lost on anyone. The whole war was for nothing.

Carefully. ;) But seriously, I think the actual flashpoint has now gone, so some kind of international arbitration will probably be initiated. Since this all occurs before the USA entered the War in OTL, I can see the Americans playing a major role as one of the arbiters.

The war lasted longer in OTL, and didn't randomly see monarchies falling. Where it happened, there were very clear reasons for it. I think a good example is Italy. They fought in OTL, they formally were on the winning side, and they gained peanuts. This caused major political discontent and...

Well, we've talked about that before. I don't see monarchies being cast aside willy-nilly.

A sronger push for constitutional monarchy is a certainty!

I a peace process really gets going, I think the will to continue the carnage will quickly collapse on all sides. Negotiations might take a while (even return to status quo will require case-based compensation arrangements, certainly), but an armistice will be effected quickly. At that point...

I'm inclined to say that the only viable way to make peace stick is to go with status quo ante. In anyone is seen losing anything, it'll be unacceptable to them, and that'll keep them from agreeing to end the war. At this point, they all still figured they had a shot.

This is almost impossible to predict. For starters, is the Tsarevich healthy, or is he afflicted by haemophilia, same as poor Alexei in OTL? This obviously matters. Since you seek to replace one of the two eldest daughters, neither of whom had it, I'm tentatively assuming it's not a problem...