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National willpower is mostly important in prolonged guerilla campaigns where all the insurgents have to do is outlast the enemy until they go home, and the other side is prevented by various factors from bringing all their force to bear on them immediately, or to survive the immediate shock of a...

From the other thread ... Interesting that the Confederacy was starting to move from slavocracy-as-economy to slavocracy-as-ideology and expanding their definition of "potential slaves" to boot. If anything, this makes a "Red Confederacy" even more likely than I'd assumed, as a populist...

Yes, what we're likely to see is the slaves passing from the hands of the planters to the hands of the State.

In this scenario, the Confederacy wins because they get lucky and miraculously roll all sixes in the Battle of Gettysburg. Now, in an age where capability to absorb attrition and industrial capacity is becoming increasingly essential to win wars, they: - Have a large area of their country...

Given the agrarian nature of the Confed. and the significant handicaps it has for industrialisation ... maybe we'll even see an earlier analogue to Maoism rise up. That would be dreadful indeed.

One also has to note that at the time GB was also concerned with a crisis involving Russian expansionism in the Balkans; France was also worried about Prussia and reluctant to do anything without British support. Again, the Confederates winning at Gettysburg doesn't change the blunt fact that...

Not to mention the boll weevil which is coming up in a couple decades and might arrive sooner with a Confederate occupation of northern Mexico.

Recognition by GB does nothing to materially help the Confederate cause; all it means is that they get formal belligerent status, so practically it means ... their soldiers get the right to be treated as legit. prisoners of war. Which they already had, so no net gain. France and Britain also...