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My gut instinct is that it terminates around Smolensk in AGC's sector; if the situation is still sufficient for a Vyzama encirclement though, they'll probably still go for it. Instead, focus will shift on finishing off Kiev and Leningrad as Hitler was leaning towards anyway in August IOTL.

Maybe about the same? The Germans would probably achieve an even better earlier encirclement but the need to rebuild the railway network in that area would constitute a serious hurdle.

Quite possibly and no, I don't think it would be sufficient; the USSR did, after all, invade and annex the Baltics and attack Finland.

First, for some vital context on the Ivan Program: Due to the start-up difficulties, this program was initially focused purely on the production of 10.5 cm grenades. The start of production for the 15 cm and 21 cm grenades should take place later. By order of the Reich Ministry for Armaments...

German difficulties in Russia were based on logistics for the most part, which here would be resolved by 50% of Germany's war time expenditure being available on top of existing usage. For example, instead of 1,000 U-Boats over the course of the war, Germany could choose to build 100,000 more...

As for ramifications, see Mark Stoler's Allies and Adversaries: The Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Grand Alliance, and U.S. Strategy in World War II reveals the planning of the JCS as it concerns the war and situational contingencies therein specifically related to if the Soviets went under. From...

Western Aid for the Soviet Union During World War II: Part II by Denis Havlat: During World War II the Soviet Union received large amounts of aid from the Western world in the form of supplies and military intervention, both of which were declared to have been irrelevant for the Soviet Union’s...