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I've drifted back to this idea over the last couple days and done some more reading on it, particularly Ten Thousand Years of Cultivation at Kuk Swamp in the Highlands of Papua New Guinea and The Huon Gulf and its hinterlands: A long-term view of coastal-highlands interactions. My conclusions...

- The inhabitants of the western Papua Peninsula are the Motu people, who practiced a form of horticulture in OTL and so are one of the first to adopt the cultivation of sorghum (c.400), which triggers a major population growth (sorghum grows better in the dry, rain-shadow region than tubers)...

Alright, wrapping up the history of the lowlands to the time of contact so we can move on up into the highlands... - The disruption caused by the Fall of Lae sees the primary trading route between the highlands and lowlands changes. Rather than following the easier Markham route, most of the...

I don't know to what extent that was a thing OTL, but with a larger segment of the population producing crafts the more widespread use of rattan for armor seems likely to happen ITTL, and will likely be just as disrupted by the arrival of the Euros.

In summary: - OTL, a major ritual/trading center emerged at Nusa Roviana in the 14th century, based off of the Rovianan's control of trade and major social events such as fishing expeditions and head-hunting raids. With more extensive trade in the region, Nusa Roviana would have risen centuries...

In summary: - OTL, Bougainville society from about 500 BC onward was comprised of sedentary farmers with a number of clans divided into four moieties that (in theory) are related to the same moieties in other clans. Each clan is led by dynastic chiefs, though these chiefs have very little power...

Writing would first evolve around 1000, as states expand and record-keeping is needed beyond basic human memory, and would in particular be used and innovated upon by the First Laenu Empire as the largest, and thus most complicated, state in existence at that point. Guinean writing would spread...

The wealth of the islands would attract would-be Corteses, but I don't think that the Spanish (or, more likely, Dutch) would actually be able to hold them given that they would be operating on supply lines stretching all the way back to the Philippines/Java. OTL, the Dutch weren't able to...

I'll try and keep this brief, because it's all rather complicated and I want to make sure I get the information across. - The Laenu Empire seriously disrupts existing life on New Britain. The Laenu desire the region as a potential source of cheap foodstuffs, and with their riches, mercenary...

Thanks for commenting! It's interesting to note that in 1100 Laenu tributaries stretched from the tip of the Papua Peninsula to the Solomons, and covered almost all of New Britain, and in 1198 Laenu was a smoking ruin. Nonetheless, I think that as memory fades it will be idealized by later Ziya...

I might be screaming into the void on this one, but I find it interesting so I'll try and keep it going for a while. Anywho, here's some clarification on the Laetian Empire post: - The Ziya are a combination of OTL's Zia and Korafe people, and like these people they have a practice of vasai or...

This is more of an outline than anything, intended to show the rough trajectory of the largest/most powerful lowlander state: the (first) Laetian Empire. Around AD 300 or so, when highlanders from the Papua Peninsula first start expanding due to population increases, the eastern lowlands around...

That's a good question, and I've been mulling it over. The biggest obstacles to the spread of civilization in the lowlands are that A. Yams/domestic sorghum, which would be the core of any crop-package, would be specialized for the temperate highlands and not do well in the lowlands, leaving...

Here's the idea: PoD: Around 2000 BC, hunter-gatherers in the Papua Peninsula begin cultivating Sorghum propinquum, simultaneously acclimatizing it for the highlands and increasing overall yield, and by around AD 1 it becomes a fully productive grain, spread northward to the main Highlands...