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<deleted content> You are still operating in the old mindset. He isn't talking about a launch failure, he is talking about a potentially bad Starlink satellite. As in the satellites that they are mass producing assembly line style and still haven't entirely decided on a final design for. Odds...

PayPal, electric cars, rocketry; Musk does tend to deliver what he promises. SpaceX is the dominant space launch entity on the planet and is spending more on spacelaunch related R&D that virtually any other entity that you can name. Elon's antics are annoying but when it comes to space he does...