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Well it's possible that the Copts might take a more violent turn ITL, but historically speaking they seem to have been generally averse to religious militancy - they weren't quite total pacifists (there were some Coptic revolts under Islamic rule which were snuffed out fairly quickly), but as a...

Sure, anything is possible given enough time. A breakdown in Monothelitism or interreligious relations in general - a Byzantine emperor who decides to drop the Heraclian compromise to reconcile with the Latin West, for example - could certainly provide the foundation for a successful Southern...

Seems like this situation would be kinda tough if the Levant still falls to the Arabs, severing the ERE's land connection to Egypt. Also, Egypt was full of Miaphysite/Monophysite Copts who had quite a bit of bad blood built up with the orthodox Romans (hence why they found the first centuries of...