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1. Enough critical areas that the entire European presence collapses and is absorbed. 2. Depends on whether the right leaders with administrative skills and talent arise. But Ottoman conquest of Austria and holding off the Poles is certainly feasible. If they become too threatening, France or...

Japan can deploy larger more effective gunpowder armies than Europe can at this time and thus the Americas fall under their sway which fucks Europe if their gold and silver trade gets disrupted. If they focus on the Americas and fighting a peer foe for them, the Europeans leave themselves...