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Works in reverse too. World War III being the trigger for American Civil War II. Revolutions happen when loyalty to the existing status quo is no guarantee of safety. So here's the prospective timeline; War breaks out! A proper one, directly between superpowers rather than just bullying...

I think the argument being made that the status quo would use nuclear weapons in a civil war is, fundamentally, that the Afghanistan war never posed an existential threat to the status quo, while losing a civil war would. Consequences of losing Afghanistan being: Made the status quo look weak...

I think Stephen Marche's article managed to hit the point, if only unintentionally, that the major threat isn't an American equivalent of the Irish Troubles, but the prospect of one justifying the security state growing even more authoritarian and intrusive. In other words, the status quo's...

The war in afghanistan was fought to make money for military-industry complex megacorps and justify stealing more civil rights in the name of security, not to be won. The taliban never posed an actual threat to the american leadership and the only lives those leaders care about are their own...

It isn't just the US's precipitation in the world economy, but all the World Policing no longer being done. How long do you think it'd take after the US collapsed for Russia to retake all their former Soviet Union territories, China to conquer Taiwan and change their modus operandi in Africa...

That's only a problem if they're your forces being used as the caravan guards. Instead of expecting publicly funded police to do their goddam job and guard private property, insofar as they obviously aren't, those wealthy enough to afford to do so would just hire mercenaries.