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Eh, that's normal behavior for them; magnetic polar flips/wanders are a very well known and rather benign geological phenomena. People freaking out about it are scaring themselves over literally nothing.

Toba is a firecracker compared to Yellowstone. And the ash may not jump the equator, but the SO2 will if it gets high enough. That will cause some amount of cooling and sunlight reflection in the southern hemisphere.

Russia has a policy of nuking all other major nation capitals if a certain threshold of damage on their soil is reached, IIRC. A lot of the pre-deployed material would likely be lost if it's anywhere near a major city or military base, unless our ABM shield is expanded quite a bit. That also...