Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
I'll expand upon some earlier remarks here:
As far as Turkey goes, I've previously said that they are a viper within the NATO armour, and it'll bite us in the end. In practice, they're cozying up the China already. They love that Putin is immolating Russia, and that all the world is emptying its armoury into Ukraine. Their ambition is to (re)gain a neo-Ottoman sphere of influence over Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus, Egypt, and if possible the Balkans. But of these, Egypt is most desired, for this would give them control over both the Bosphoros and the Suez Canal.
(Note that I don't think that Turkey is capable of re-creating the Ottoman Empire. But they can and will grab some choice bits, and make the most of it.)
This would involve betraying NATO, but China is more than willing to back them with enormous sums of money and matériel. Because the return favour for that is China gets cheap or free access through these choke points, and Turkey becomes a forward position for Chinese strategic military efforts. (Take keen notice of how avidly Turkey is pushing for "pipe-lines through Turkey" as the "safe" alternative to existing pipe-lines. They cleverly paint this as "making Europe less dependent of Russia". But the actual effect is that they can close those pipe-lines when the time comes for their act of betrayal.)
Turkey is currently in debt and has monetary issues. I expect their betrayal to come when their economy can't hold up any longer. At that point, they'll back-stab NATO, and ally openly with China. In the process, they'll replace their currency with a new Chinese-backed one, and declare all their foreign debt void. (Unilaterally in case of the West; with permission in case of China.)
Turkey is in a strategically significant spot, it has the ambition, it's insulated from overt counter-measures by being inside NATO, it's evidently willing to accept Chinese funding, and it has a major fiscal-economic issue that will provide a compelling reason to accept the Chinese offer. Therefore, my money is on Turkey being the "Pontus" of our age.
(Russia was the only other contender that I could see, and I was saying they'd mostly likely self-destruct instead before the current war broke out. Now, it's evident. Most of Russia will be vassalised by China. Perhaps all of it. If the West is half-way capable, it'll get a chunk of Russia in its own sphere of influence. This means Russia is basically more like ancient Armenia.)
I expect the events I have described to be the root cause of our basic equivalent to the Mithridatic Wars. Europe will at this point scream out for American help, and America will answer. (This is also the point where Europe becomes a definitive American vassal region.)
Anyway, Turkey no doubt gets crushed in the end, although China will prop it up for as long as possible, same as the West is now doing with Ukraine. But China will be less effective, because they won't have so much to pour into backing Turkey. That is because the Turks are just pawns to them, to serve as a useful distraction for the West. (The Turks, possessing an inflated sense of their own importance, don't seem to realise this. Even though it's really obvious.) The main interest of China lies in establishing a firm hold on Taiwan and Asiatic Russia, as well as Korea, Japan, and South-East Asia overall. They'll be getting all of this underway, instead of spending their full effort to back the Turks.
...That about sums up why I think Turkey will play the role of "Pontus", and how it will play out. How the Arab states position themselves in this remains up for grabs. When we consider the prospective "Troubles" in Europe pertaining to unassimilated Muslims, it seems... tricky... to have an alliance that includes both European powers and Arab powers at this point. Not impossible, but certainly precarious. There is also the matter that Turkey and Iran might actually ally, since they're not in direct competition. In case of Arab opposition, this would force said Arabs to fight on two fronts. There are many ways that side of the whole affair can play out.
Yeah...
Will comment on what I can later, as this is a fascinating summation with lots of interrelated factors I feel need to follow up on elsewhere. For starters, whether China will be in a position of strength as the Eastern Empire at all, though I guess that'll have to wait.
Apart from anything else, something tells me that lots of Classical figures watching from the afterlife (namely Mithridates VI, as well as his Roman rivals) must be grimly amused that, despite how much the larger geopolitical and macro-historical backdrop has changed, Asia Minor may once again be the target of renewed wars by our age's Universal-Empire-to-be. Odd how things come full circle like that, really.
More "modern" historical figures (especially those in charge during the last crisis period) would have thoughts of their own, I imagine. Bit beyond me to name them all at the moment, though as it pertains to the current topic, I can unironically picture Hitler cheering for the Turks (and maybe also the Arabs and Iranians) as they threaten to wipe Israel off the map. Would probably also laugh and munch popcorn as he watches Russia disintegrate, too, feeling vindicated as he watches the "exhausted Slavs" bring their own country down via infighting as the "regimented Chinese" sweep in to claim Asiatic Russia. Doubt he'd be pleased with the Kafkaesque state of Europe or that our "Caesar" is of American rather than German stock, but you can't have it all, I guess.