Could an M-R Pact style fourth partition of Poland have happened with a different set of events leading to it?

Upper Silesia was mostly Polish (albeit some with German loyalties) while Lower Silesia was overwhelmingly German. Take a look at this map:


1200px-Sprachen_in_Schlesien_1905_06.svg.png


There was, of course, a very small Czech-plurality part in the south.
Yes, but again that is 1905/6 and the 2nd Reich didn't recognize the ethnicity of Silesian as distinct. Genetically they are a mixture of Germans and various western Slavs.
 
Yes, but again that is 1905/6 and the 2nd Reich didn't recognize the ethnicity of Silesian as distinct. Genetically they are a mixture of Germans and various western Slavs.

They might be genetically mixed but they culturally identified overwhelmingly as Germans, to my knowledge. The Slavs who were Germanized during the Medieval Ostsiedlung have already lost all traces of their Slavic cultural heritage by the 20th century, to my knowledge--with a few exceptions, such as in Masuria and Upper Silesia.
 
They might be genetically mixed but they culturally identified overwhelmingly as Germans, to my knowledge. The Slavs who were Germanized during the Medieval Ostsiedlung have already lost all traces of their Slavic cultural heritage by the 20th century, to my knowledge--with a few exceptions, such as in Masuria and Upper Silesia.
Sure, but given that history identity can be malleable depending on which army is in control of the territory.
 
Sure, but given that history identity can be malleable depending on which army is in control of the territory.

Poles didn't think that it was malleable. Else, they wouldn't have expelled the Lower Silesians en masse. Any Silesian (and Masurian) who was believed to be capable of successful Polonization was allowed to stay. Most people in Lower Silesia did not qualify for this.
 

The People's Republic had to locate its population inside the new frontiers in order to solidify the hold over the territories.[27] With the Kresy annexed by the Soviet Union, Poland was effectively moved westwards and its area reduced by almost 20% (from 389,000 to 312,000 km2 (150,194 to 120,464 sq mi)).[60] Millions of non-Poles – mainly Germans from the Recovered Territories, as well as some Ukrainians in the east – were to be expelled from the new Poland, while large numbers of Poles needed to be resettled having been expelled from the Kresy. The expellees were termed "repatriates".[27] The result was the largest exchange of population in European history.[27] The picture of the new western and northern territories being recovered Piast territory was used to forge Polish settlers and "repatriates" arriving there into a coherent community loyal to the new regime,[61] and to justify the removal of the German inhabitants.[27] Largely excepted from the expulsions of Germans were the "autochthons", close to three million ethnically Polish/Slavic inhabitants of Masuria (Masurs), Pomerania (Kashubians, Slovincians) and Upper Silesia (Silesians). The Polish government aimed to retain as many autochthons as possible, as their presence on former German territory was used to indicate the intrinsic "Polishness" of the area and justify its incorporation into the Polish state as "recovered" territories.[62] "Verification" and "national rehabilitation" processes were set up to reveal a "dormant Polishness" and determine who was redeemable as a Polish citizen. Few were actually expelled.[62] The "autochthons" not only disliked the subjective and often arbitrary verification process, but they also faced discrimination even after completing it,[63] such as the Polonization of their names.[64] In the Lubusz region (former East Brandenburg), the local authorities conceded already in 1948 that what the PZZ claimed to be a recovered "autochton" Polish population were in fact Germanized migrant workers, who had settled in the region in the late 19th and early 20th centuries – with the exception of one village, Babimost, just across the pre-war border.[65]
 
Poles didn't think that it was malleable. Else, they wouldn't have expelled the Lower Silesians en masse. Any Silesian (and Masurian) who was believed to be capable of successful Polonization was allowed to stay. Most people in Lower Silesia did not qualify for this.
That was mostly the Red Army that did that. Polish forces that helped were under Soviet command. It was more a geopolitical gambit to create what they thought would be permanent Polish-German hatred that would force Poland to rely on the Soviets to stay safe from revanchist Germany. Plus it was part of the agreement all Allied powers made at Potsdam, so it was fully endorsed by the western powers to weaken Germany permanently.


Plus displaced Poles from the Eastern border shift needed homes:
 
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That was mostly the Red Army that did that. Polish forces that helped were under Soviet command. It was more a geopolitical gambit to create what they thought would be permanent Polish-German hatred that would force Poland to rely on the Soviets to stay safe from revanchist Germany. Plus it was part of the agreement all Allied powers made at Potsdam, so it was fully endorsed by the western powers to weaken Germany permanently.


Plus displaced Poles from the Eastern border shift needed homes:

Yes, but even so, the Polish Communist government allowed people of Slavic/Polish descent whom it deemed capable of successful Polonization to stay so that it could prove the Recovered Territories' "inherent Polishness". If there would have been more such people, I suspect that they would have likewise been allowed to stay. New homes could have been built for the Kresy refugees elsewhere, such as in other parts of Polish cities.
 
Yes, but even so, the Polish Communist government allowed people of Slavic/Polish descent whom it deemed capable of successful Polonization to stay so that it could prove the Recovered Territories' "inherent Polishness". If there would have been more such people, I suspect that they would have likewise been allowed to stay. New homes could have been built for the Kresy refugees elsewhere, such as in other parts of Polish cities.
Unfortunately this is not possible, you see, most of the inhabitants of today's western Poland are not descendants of people from the Kresy. They are descendants of people from central Poland, or more precisely from former Congress Poland and Galicia. These areas suffered from horrible overpopulation by our standards. (Especially rural areas, which before the war suffered from hidden overpopulation and unemployment, and simply lacked factories in the cities to take them out of the countryside and had to compete with Jews living in urban slums, although the slaughter of the Jews by the Germans in a way achieved the goal that many Poles, although none was satisfied with the path taken. Many wanted simply to force them to emigrate, more precisely to Palestine, the first terrorists there acting for the Free Israel were trained and equipped by Poles between the wars) They had to be sent somewhere. Hence, they were sent to Lower Silesia.

If the Germans had not been expelled, they would still have been under a solid pressure from the Poles who were sent there. Which of course would have created tensions. (One thing which is hardly mentioned is that the Polish communists de facto were very nationalistic in their approach to national issues, more so than the nationalists themselves!)

Of course one solution would be to send them to Pomerania, which still today is the least populated and most empty part of Poland. Here this hole could be patched up, but it would not be enough.

Another important thing, if these Germans were not expelled to Germany, they were persecuted and broken in a totalitarian way, in the effort to denationalize them and turn into Poles. And if there was a lot of resistance, there might have been a German version of Aktion Wisla (let's call it Action Odra). They would be expelled from their homes, but not to Germany, but deep into Poland, dispersed on the whole territory, to such an extent there would be no chance they would survive as a homogeneous group.

One more important thing is that after the war Poland was the most razed country of Europe and the best cities for rebuilding were taken away from her. A little known fact is that the Poles, after the expulsion of the Germans, did not necessarily live in their houses, in many cases they were torn down and the materials used to build them were sent to Poland proper, usually to Warsaw, to help rebuild there.
 
That was mostly the Red Army that did that. Polish forces that helped were under Soviet command. It was more a geopolitical gambit to create what they thought would be permanent Polish-German hatred that would force Poland to rely on the Soviets to stay safe from revanchist Germany. Plus it was part of the agreement all Allied powers made at Potsdam, so it was fully endorsed by the western powers to weaken Germany permanently.


Plus displaced Poles from the Eastern border shift needed homes:

That is true.What is even more important,Poland was soviet colony,with almost soviet disorder.Anybody who could get to state without commies,did so.
 
Unfortunately this is not possible, you see, most of the inhabitants of today's western Poland are not descendants of people from the Kresy. They are descendants of people from central Poland, or more precisely from former Congress Poland and Galicia. These areas suffered from horrible overpopulation by our standards. (Especially rural areas, which before the war suffered from hidden overpopulation and unemployment, and simply lacked factories in the cities to take them out of the countryside and had to compete with Jews living in urban slums, although the slaughter of the Jews by the Germans in a way achieved the goal that many Poles, although none was satisfied with the path taken. Many wanted simply to force them to emigrate, more precisely to Palestine, the first terrorists there acting for the Free Israel were trained and equipped by Poles between the wars) They had to be sent somewhere. Hence, they were sent to Lower Silesia.

If the Germans had not been expelled, they would still have been under a solid pressure from the Poles who were sent there. Which of course would have created tensions. (One thing which is hardly mentioned is that the Polish communists de facto were very nationalistic in their approach to national issues, more so than the nationalists themselves!)

Of course one solution would be to send them to Pomerania, which still today is the least populated and most empty part of Poland. Here this hole could be patched up, but it would not be enough.

Another important thing, if these Germans were not expelled to Germany, they were persecuted and broken in a totalitarian way, in the effort to denationalize them and turn into Poles. And if there was a lot of resistance, there might have been a German version of Aktion Wisla (let's call it Action Odra). They would be expelled from their homes, but not to Germany, but deep into Poland, dispersed on the whole territory, to such an extent there would be no chance they would survive as a homogeneous group.

One more important thing is that after the war Poland was the most razed country of Europe and the best cities for rebuilding were taken away from her. A little known fact is that the Poles, after the expulsion of the Germans, did not necessarily live in their houses, in many cases they were torn down and the materials used to build them were sent to Poland proper, usually to Warsaw, to help rebuild there.

Excellent analysis! BTW, how many Jews do you think that Poland would have had right now without the Holocaust?
 
Excellent analysis! BTW, how many Jews do you think that Poland would have had right now without the Holocaust?
Honestly? As many as now, well maybe a little more but a significant number of them would emigrate to Palestine either voluntarily or under pressure.

Most would simply walk away under pressure. Those who remained would say to the Israelis and Poles of the Jewish faith. The latter would be much more numerous and in a strict sense, the only difference between them and ordinary Poles would be their faith, in a cultural sense they would be fully Polish.

The popular statement that over 3 million Jews were killed in Poland during World War II is not entirely true. In fact, a maximum of one and a half million of them should be taken away and included in the Polish victims, because the only thing that was often Jewish was their religion.

If they had not left Poland, they would have eventually polonized to the rest, perhaps a large number of them would have even become Catholics. Such was the general trend, pushing for assimilation of all Jews, which concerned every political party ruling in Poland from left to right. In a sharper or weaker approach, but nevertheless, the ultimate goal was identical. It was simply that the Second Polish Republic was no longer a multicultural empire, but that the Poles had decided to complete a kind of natural process which had been going on from below in the IRP and which had been interrupted in part by the partitions.

The Jews would de facto be given an ultimatum: either you become Polonized or you go to Palestine to help build Israel there. We had too many of them then in Poland and de facto they strangled our industry, our trade and did not necessarily feel loyal to Poland. In many cases they wanted to have their own ghettos! How easily the Germans did this was because many Jews in Poland wanted ghettos to separate themselves from the Poles. The most resistant were those Jews who were Jews only by religion, and sometimes not even that!

Because you must know that a large part of these Jews are not Jews who have lived in Poland for generations, no. The whole mass of them are Jews expelled from Russia to the settlement zone allowed for them, they were called Litvas to distinguish them from their Jews. This zone of settlement diminished with time, although at first it began where ended the old border of Poland from before the first partition.

These Jews, were strangers and did not want to be here, and much of the Polish anti-Semitism that appeared was because of them. As before they were visible but not so numerous, suddenly a whole mass of them appeared, filling the Polish cities, often being just poor people, not feeling any connection with Poland.

You see, from the Holocaust de facto survived those Jews who were more or less Polonized, most of them even felt Polish. Because it was difficult to hide them, but it was possible, because they often knew Polish flawlessly, because at home only this language was used in many cases.
In the camps, of those Jews in Poland, who ended up there, the vast majority were Litvas.

It was almost impossible to hide these, because the only thing they knew was Yiddish, Polish rather faintly and with a visible accent. It was easier for those who knew Ukrainian or Byelorussian, they could at least try to change the accent to that typically sung by Ruthenian. (Yes, there are accents in Polish as well and this Ruthenian is very melodious in Polish, especially Russian).

In the absence of the Second World War or the Holocaust, one should expect that Poland will begin to more willingly and courageously supply weapons to Jews in Palestine.
As I said, it was we who trained them at the beginning, even the Anders Army, after reaching Palestine from Kazakhstan, suddenly received a wave of desertions of Jewish soldiers with all the consciousness of their Polish commanders and friends, taking with them their equipment with silent consent.

So you know, if anyone is really to blame for Israel being there, it's more likely us who sprinkled the gunpowder and gave the matches. We had to start somewhere. And if I am not mistaken, the Israeli intelligence and army are in fact a bit reworked for their use from the intelligence and army of the Second Polish Republic.
 
Good question, I don't know. An Austrian wasn't threatening enough to act without the French, but a Prussian very well might be. Poland did have a military advantage over Germany by 1933, but projecting that power out of the country might be more difficult than the Poles anticipate. I'm not sure the Czechs would participate given the likely reaction of the German minority.
For the Poles it would be a quagmire and probably turn international opinion against them. The Soviets might take advantage too.

What is the best outcome border-wise the Poles could achieve with a preemptive war?

What is the worst-case scenario border-wise for the Poles if a preemptive attack by them does not succeed as well as expected and international opinion turns against them?
 
Of course. Not sure how well that it would work though. They'd really be more about playing the political angle and trying to get the British to use their influence to get the Poles to back off. But really I think the Poles would go for a quick decapitation strike and then back off as they occupy territories they consider worth holding on to. They should have the strength to take and hold East Prussia and Danzig without significant issues, but Silesia is going to be a problem due to the ability of Germany to supply an insurgency.

Question: If Berlin is at risk of falling to the Poles, can't the German government simply retreat further west, in which Poland might have to occupy much more of Germany, with all of the associated costs of doing this? And any Polish attempts to permanently acquire additional German territories would simply not be sustainable without mass expulsions; any German government, even a democratic one, might eventually seek to go to war to reacquire these lost territories and more if the opportunity for doing this will ever arise.
 
Something like 95%?

You know, I would actually wholeheartedly endorse a non-Nazi German+Soviet partition of Poland since it would give western Ukraine with all of its Ukrainian nationalists to the Soviet Union but at a much lower cost in lives in comparison to real life.

Though it's worth noting that World War II in real life ironically helped the cause of Ukrainian nationalism by demographically devastating the most nationalist parts of Ukraine the least of all:

ef195f113174619d163a0c87b13d4f061e5323df.webp


Off-topic, but I wonder if Crimea would have still been given from Russia to Ukraine had Stalin lived for at least an extra year. The decision to transfer Crimea was done in the Khrushchev era in real life, after all.
 
Poland did have a military advantage over Germany by 1933, but projecting that power out of the country might be more difficult than the Poles anticipate
Also - Poland cannot fight a war longer than a few months without inflow of materiel from abroad. Industry is too small to support a longer effort. So, a short victorious war with a peace brokered by France (source of funds and war materiel).
 
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You know, I would actually wholeheartedly endorse a non-Nazi German+Soviet partition of Poland since it would give western Ukraine with all of its Ukrainian nationalists to the Soviet Union but at a much lower cost in lives in comparison to real life.

Though it's worth noting that World War II in real life ironically helped the cause of Ukrainian nationalism by demographically devastating the most nationalist parts of Ukraine the least of all:

ef195f113174619d163a0c87b13d4f061e5323df.webp


Off-topic, but I wonder if Crimea would have still been given from Russia to Ukraine had Stalin lived for at least an extra year. The decision to transfer Crimea was done in the Khrushchev era in real life, after all.

By 1933 England and France agreed to betreyal Poland and gave our lands to germans,as long as there would be no war.
And all factions in germany except Hitler wanted that.
So,without Hitler we would have war against Poland,and then soviet invasion of Germany.
Either soviet Europe,or,at least,soviet germany.

Also - Poland cannot fight a war longer than a few months without inflow of materiel from abroad. Industry is to small to support a longer effort. So, a short victorious war with a peace brokered by France (source of funds and war materiel).

Dunno about 1933,but in 1939 we had ammo for 3-6 months of fighting depending on kind of ammo,and new production could be made only for 20 dyvisions,when we had 39.
 
Also - Poland cannot fight a war longer than a few months without inflow of materiel from abroad. Industry is too small to support a longer effort. So, a short victorious war with a peace brokered by France (source of funds and war materiel).

Or the Germans can simply try to win a war of attrition against the Poles. Or perhaps wait a while and then return in order to settle scores with the Poles.
 
By 1933 England and France agreed to betreyal Poland and gave our lands to germans,as long as there would be no war.
And all factions in germany except Hitler wanted that.
So,without Hitler we would have war against Poland,and then soviet invasion of Germany.
Either soviet Europe,or,at least,soviet germany.

The Anglo-French would not allow for a Soviet Germany, and neither would the Italians. Can the Soviets defeat all three of these armies, plus the German army, simultaneously?
 

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