Middle East Trump makes way for Turkey operation against Kurds in Syria

HistoryMinor

Well-known member
So, looks like Trump's letter, and publicizing it, had the intended effect. I'll let the video speak for itself.



Ignoring how this is probably just Russia playing chess against itself, isn't a ypg retreat just what Turkey was saying all along? He says ypg, but the Turks don't differentiate between them and the SDF. Also i'd like to see a miles to clicks conversion to see if anything has changed at all.
 
D

Deleted member 18

Guest
It's Trump, honestly, if anyone expected poetry or conventional western diplo-speak, well, why, why would you expect that, don't you know anything about Trump?
It's written in a way quite similar to his speaking style, like it or not.
But de gustibus non est disputandum.

The more interesting question here is - what do you think would "correct" execution of withdrawal from Syria look like?

If Trump can't manage to write a formal letter to another head of state with more polish than the sub-literate rambling and disrespect on display here, then it's a disgrace. He wasn't talking off-the-cuff; he had plenty of time to look this over, edit it, review it, see if the tone fit the circumstances, and run it by other people to help out. He probably did none of that. Yes the Democrats and the Establishment GOP are awful but that does not stop Trump from being just frankly stupid in a really awful way. He's not playing 4th dimensional chess, he's drooling from eating paste and then flailing around when someone tries to take the paste away from him.

As for how a withdrawal should have been done, for the first part a decision should have been made months ago and not when Trump was on the phone with Erdogan. This had in fact happened before which gives the DoD and State precisely zero excuse for being surprised since it was clear Trump wanted to leave but they were in fact surprised. Once the decision had been made months ago it should have been directly communicated to the commanders in charge of operations, and on the ground, and a plan for a safe and smooth withdrawal should have been drawn up. The YPG/SDF should have at that time also been told that the US did not sign up to fight Turkey for them, that we would be leaving in the near future, and that they should make whatever arrangements they needed to. They in fact had been negotiating with Assad and the Russians last year and broke it off based on assurances from State and the military that we wouldn't leave them in the ditch; then we proceeded to leave them in the ditch.

So there should have been an agreement ready in the wings to bring the SDF under the umbrella of the Russians and Syrians, probably with a better deal than they got here because they'd have more time and leverage. US troops should have already been moving out and Russian and Syrian forces moving up to replace them opposite the Turks before the withdrawal was announced. Erdogan should have been surprised by this, not the SDF and American commanders and diplomats. Instead Trump impulsively made a decision and announced it on Twitter right away without giving anyone time to prepare, except that is for the Turks.
 

HistoryMinor

Well-known member
Lol the guy didn't even pay attention to conversion and ended up giving the Turks two extra miles. Apparently the SDF might not even be on board with this, which means this is just an excuse for Trump to tuck his tail and veto future sanctions on Ankara. Meanwhile Russia keeps moving north.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
If Trump can't manage to write a formal letter to another head of state with more polish than the sub-literate rambling and disrespect on display here, then it's a disgrace. He wasn't talking off-the-cuff; he had plenty of time to look this over, edit it, review it, see if the tone fit the circumstances, and run it by other people to help out.
This brings up two questions:
a) Should have written the letter in "standard western diplo-speak"?
b) Would writting the letter in "standard western diplo-speak" get him closer to the desired result than what he did instead?

Disrespect? Not sure if you know that, but politicians behind the scenes do not discuss things in the kind of formal language you and the media expected to see here. Maybye some western politicians do, and vast majority of them do it in public, but in most other countries, it's a completely different matter. In Poland there was a bunch of leaks of private discussions between politicians, and no matter which part of the political spectrum the leaks were from, they don't talk with the same style they do in TV.
Moreover, it's Erdogan we are talking about. My personal opinion would be that he does not respect the kind of people who communicate by "standard western diplo-speak", and why would he, considering how often he runs roughshod over such people and gets away with it (see: EU).
As for how a withdrawal should have been done, for the first part a decision should have been made months ago and not when Trump was on the phone with Erdogan. This had in fact happened before which gives the DoD and State precisely zero excuse for being surprised since it was clear Trump wanted to leave but they were in fact surprised.
That just means that they weren't truly surprised. They were pretend-surprised for public effect. "We were really hoping he stops making waves about the matter and defaults to our opinion instead, but oh well" kind of surprised.
Once the decision had been made months ago it should have been directly communicated to the commanders in charge of operations, and on the ground, and a plan for a safe and smooth withdrawal should have been drawn up.
Maybye it was, in which case we don't know because that was classified. Maybye it wasn't, and in that case, there would be a half decent excuse - we all know how leaky the administration is.
The YPG/SDF should have at that time also been told that the US did not sign up to fight Turkey for them, that we would be leaving in the near future, and that they should make whatever arrangements they needed to.
Does the lack of continuing defense treaty even require stating out?
Also even if the administration wouldn't leak, scorned YPG would leak for sure because it would have been their only chance to get the establishment "hawks" to have time to pressure the administration into staying there.
Consider what happened the last time Trump wanted to disengage from Syria:
That was nearly a year ago...
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., derided Trump’s decision to withdraw, likening it to those made by former President Barack Obama to announce ahead of time plans to reduce forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Guess Trump listened to Graham this time, at least to the point about announcements...

If announcements did not bring such political counter-interventions, there would have been nothing to withdraw by now. Also yet another reason why all the people who act surprised are either really naive, ignorant or dishonest.

They in fact had been negotiating with Assad and the Russians last year and broke it off based on assurances from State and the military that we wouldn't leave them in the ditch; then we proceeded to leave them in the ditch.
From what i remember from that time, news stories broke out that they were negotiating with them with rather unreasonable demands.
If they have interpreted "wouldn't leave them in the ditch" as "will commit to indefinite military presence in Syria, come hell or high water" that's their problem of hearing what they really, really wanted to hear rather than what was said.

So there should have been an agreement ready in the wings to bring the SDF under the umbrella of the Russians and Syrians, probably with a better deal than they got here because they'd have more time and leverage.
The situation and negotiating positions were shifting all the time. The details of whether Kurds got the most optimal deal possible out of Assad are not a US responsibility, worry or problem, it's Kurd's. Last year they weren't too eager to make deals with Assad, hence their high demands, but their negotiating position was better then and everyone knew that it sure as hell isn't going to get stronger as Assad finishes off the war and consolidates his forces, it was bound to only go down.

US troops should have already been moving out and Russian and Syrian forces moving up to replace them opposite the Turks before the withdrawal was announced. Erdogan should have been surprised by this, not the SDF and American commanders and diplomats. Instead Trump impulsively made a decision and announced it on Twitter right away without giving anyone time to prepare, except that is for the Turks.
Everyone else should have expected this just as much as they had the same knowledge to go on as Erdogan did.
 
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D

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@Bacle, if I had a Jackson for every time there’s been a cease-fire in Syria I could pay off my home mortgage. There is every expectation this will be a sham that will last five minutes, if at all.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
@Bacle, if I had a Jackson for every time there’s been a cease-fire in Syria I could pay off my home mortgage. There is every expectation this will be a sham that will last five minutes, if at all.
I'm aware that there have been numerous 'ceasefires' in Syria over the years, negotiated by the US, Russia, and I think even the Saudi's.

This one I think has more likelihood of remaining in force, for a few reasons:
1) Economic leverage against Turkey is a powerful tool for Trump, and one he is more comfortable with than military force. If Erdogan violates the terms, I expect a massive increase in sanctions against Turkey to come on fast.
2) Limited, but not unreasonable, timeframe for the Kurds/SDF to pull out of the buffer zone. This means neither the Turks or any Kurdish factions have a long window of opportunity to try to drag the US in again via shenanigans.
3) Rather clear and definite language in the agreement makes it harder to pull above shenanigans and twist the US's words to expand or contract the agreement.
4) Assad and Russia have already struck a separate agreement with the Kurds about their future in Syria under Assad, from the sound of things, so Russia may be a silent partner in this agreement as well.

Time will tell, but my gut says this agreement has a far better chance of preventing a Kurdish genocide by the Turks, or drawing the US into armed conflict against Turkey, and may finally begin to bring some measure of stability to that cursed region. The only real wildcard I see in this is Iran, and what they may do.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
One thing you should keep in mind about the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War is that most of the territory Azerbaijan took belonged to the surrounding districts that were almost entirely Azerbaijani and Kurdish before the First Nagorno-Karabakh War and whose occupation was illegal undee international law.
So is the occupation of Crimea and Donbass by Russia...
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
We are supporting people there against persecution.

Still not the same, wr didn't annex a patt of Syria
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
To support fighting ISIS
Oh please, the ISIS excuse is something no one believes anymore; ISIS has been dead to the public conciousness for a while, only trotted out for 'we got a terrorist' PR stunts to help boost DC's image.

The only reason we are still in Syria is to make sure Assad or his proxies doesn't get back control of those oil wells the Syrian Kurds claim/control.
 

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