Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

@Zyobot Are you aware of this plan? :


"Greek Plan of Catherine the Great: in red, the "Neobyzantine Empire" for her grandson Konstantin, in blue the "Kingdom of Dacia" for Grigory Potemkin, in yellow the compensations for the Habsburg Empire and in blue-green those of Venice."

Great_Catherine%27s_dream.png


I wonder if the successful implementation of this plan would have caused France to attack and conquer North Africa earlier if it wasn't distracted by revolution, purges, and constant warfare in Europe.

Not my area of expertise, I'm afraid. 😕

'More Neo-Nazi Terrorism'. Comparable in size, scope, and resources to modern Islamic extremism, just to give a clearer idea of what I'm looking for.
 
A minor player modern country gets ISOT to the past, but rather than conquering the world, it completely collapses under the combined strain of its economy being totally destroyed by a total loss of international trade and its leadership expending its resources and the lives of its soldiers upon essentially purely ideological wars to spread Modern™ values. Not sure which country or time period.
 
A minor player modern country gets ISOT to the past, but rather than conquering the world, it completely collapses under the combined strain of its economy being totally destroyed by a total loss of international trade and its leadership expending its resources and the lives of its soldiers upon essentially purely ideological wars to spread Modern™ values. Not sure which country or time period.

Frankly, I'd like to see a war between 2022 Serbia + Kosovo + Macedonia vs. 1914 Austria-Hungary!
 
A minor player modern country gets ISOT to the past, but rather than conquering the world, it completely collapses under the combined strain of its economy being totally destroyed by a total loss of international trade and its leadership expending its resources and the lives of its soldiers upon essentially purely ideological wars to spread Modern™ values. Not sure which country or time period.
France, or maybe germany.
 
Modern Germany most likely. The military is hated, the electricity must be imported, the people are brainwashed to hate themselves, the illegals and refugees are likely to return to their future nations with stolen things to kickstart their own, the politicans gleefully sell the nation out to everyone.
There are also the romanticized links to nations in the past that Germany was made out of. Some that would still have fragments downtime. Taking over part of the prize that is uptime Germany would be much easier with inside help.

Tech levels shouldn't drop much further than WWI levels. That level of electronics can be made by hand. Heavy machinery would probably drop a bit further, but only because of the lack of infrastructure, not knowledge. There would be enough people smart enough to make hard copies of important information that it would not be complketely destroyed, but it would become less available as the German institution collapses. There would be Christain fundamentalists taking what they think is the most important modern knowledge to monistaries for presrvation and distribution. Simular with Muslims. It will be invisible in the short run, but explode in the long run.
 
‘ATL 2000 Election: Al Gore Vs. John McCain’.
The late, great John J. Reilly wrote a short scenario on that in 2008, which has more recently been reposted here by Ben Espen since John's site has since gone offline.

It should be noted that John (Reilly) was a big fan of John (McCain), so this isn'r his most unbiased piece. Nevertheless, anything John J. Reilly ever wrote is worth reading.
 
"Greek Plan of Catherine the Great: in red, the "Neobyzantine Empire" for her grandson Konstantin, in blue the "Kingdom of Dacia" for Grigory Potemkin, in yellow the compensations for the Habsburg Empire and in blue-green those of Venice."
I'm a huge fan of this bit of AH potential, although it should be noted that in OTL, every serious attempt failed and was doomed to fail. The timing was always off. I've repeatedly proposed that if Potemkin hadn't gotten distracted by the idea of a war with Persia in the 1780s, an Austro-Russian compact to carry this out could have come about a few years earlier.

That would have lead to a golden opportunity, because -- if successful -- Austria would immediately thereafter be distracted by the French revolution. This would allow Russia to have a pretty free hand in organising the new "Byzantine Kingdom" (note that using the term "Empire" would be diplomatically untenable; other powers wouldn't accept it).

It should also be noted that the plan went to various iterations, and the map you show only indicates one version. The ATL I have proposed here would cut Venice out of the venture, for instance, and (per Potemkin's ambitions) would go much further in attempting to dismantle the whole Ottoman Empire. Northern and Western Anatolia were to be cleared of Turks and then granted to the new Byzantine state (although Russia's direct annexations in the North would presumably extend to Cape Sinope). Armenian, Kurdish, Assyrian and Arab states were to be spun off, there was to be Austro/Russian custody of the Holy Land, and the Turks were to be confined to Central Anatolia, powerless and surrounded. Also, Potemkin´s ambitions for Romania weren´t very clear. It was also proposed that it be cut in twain, with Wallachia going to Byzantium, and Moldavia to Russia.

(Not that division would matter too much, since the Russian plan was always to have the Russian Tsars inherit the Byzantine throne, thus adding all of the new realm to Russia directly. Third Rome can into Second Rome!)
 
I'm a huge fan of this bit of AH potential, although it should be noted that in OTL, every serious attempt failed and was doomed to fail. The timing was always off. I've repeatedly proposed that if Potemkin hadn't gotten distracted by the idea of a war with Persia in the 1780s, an Austro-Russian compact to carry this out could have come about a few years earlier.

That would have lead to a golden opportunity, because -- if successful -- Austria would immediately thereafter be distracted by the French revolution. This would allow Russia to have a pretty free hand in organising the new "Byzantine Kingdom" (note that using the term "Empire" would be diplomatically untenable; other powers wouldn't accept it).

It should also be noted that the plan went to various iterations, and the map you show only indicates one version. The ATL I have proposed here would cut Venice out of the venture, for instance, and (per Potemkin's ambitions) would go much further in attempting to dismantle the whole Ottoman Empire. Northern and Western Anatolia were to be cleared of Turks and then granted to the new Byzantine state (although Russia's direct annexations in the North would presumably extend to Cape Sinope). Armenian, Kurdish, Assyrian and Arab states were to be spun off, there was to be Austro/Russian custody of the Holy Land, and the Turks were to be confined to Central Anatolia, powerless and surrounded. Also, Potemkin´s ambitions for Romania weren´t very clear. It was also proposed that it be cut in twain, with Wallachia going to Byzantium, and Moldavia to Russia.

(Not that division would matter too much, since the Russian plan was always to have the Russian Tsars inherit the Byzantine throne, thus adding all of the new realm to Russia directly. Third Rome can into Second Rome!)

To be honest, seeing Romania get partitioned between the Russians and Neo-Byzantines would be kind of sad. :( But it would have been absolutely epic to revive the Ruman Sultanate in central Anatolia, that's for sure! :


The late, great John J. Reilly wrote a short scenario on that in 2008, which has more recently been reposted here by Ben Espen since John's site has since gone offline.

It should be noted that John (Reilly) was a big fan of John (McCain), so this isn'r his most unbiased piece. Nevertheless, anything John J. Reilly ever wrote is worth reading.

Do you think that in this TL Hillary Clinton wins in 2008?
 
Do you think that in this TL Hillary Clinton wins in 2008?
John, ever the Spenglerian, hinted at "ever more personal politics" and the disintegration of classical party cadres. He tells us that McCain's opponent in 2004 "was still a Democrat", implying that this ceased to be the case as of 2008. Given John's world-view, I think he'd expect there to be a populist opponent who rallies all those disenchanted with McCain's policies. Imagine a sort of Ralph Nader / Ross Perot hybrid, with a dose of Bernie Sanders and a weird shot of Pat Buchanan mixed in.

The end of the article suggests McCain ended his tenure with enough popularity that such a candidate may not win, leading to a moderate-but-hawkish Republican winning, precisely by drawing in the "Clinton Democrats" who don't want to vote Populist.

Given what John describes, one might imagine that OTL's 2008 crisis happens a bit later, during the term of McCain's successor. Which would then lead to the aforementioned populist coalition winning the second time around, in 2012. (It may well be Donald Trump himself who wins, on an ostensibly Democratic ticket: he carefully prepared for a possible run for quite some time in OTL. Note his flipping party affiliation: always a member of the opposition party, so as to be able to run when an incumbent leaves office.)

"John McCain in 2000 causes Donald Trump in 2012" is, naturally, a hilarious notion in itself. John McCain would hate it. So would John Reilly, I imagine. But he wouldn't have been surprised...
 
John, ever the Spenglerian, hinted at "ever more personal politics" and the disintegration of classical party cadres. He tells us that McCain's opponent in 2004 "was still a Democrat", implying that this ceased to be the case as of 2008. Given John's world-view, I think he'd expect there to be a populist opponent who rallies all those disenchanted with McCain's policies. Imagine a sort of Ralph Nader / Ross Perot hybrid, with a dose of Bernie Sanders and a weird shot of Pat Buchanan mixed in.

The end of the article suggests McCain ended his tenure with enough popularity that such a candidate may not win, leading to a moderate-but-hawkish Republican winning, precisely by drawing in the "Clinton Democrats" who don't want to vote Populist.

Given what John describes, one might imagine that OTL's 2008 crisis happens a bit later, during the term of McCain's successor. Which would then lead to the aforementioned populist coalition winning the second time around, in 2012. (It may well be Donald Trump himself who wins, on an ostensibly Democratic ticket: he carefully prepared for a possible run for quite some time in OTL. Note his flipping party affiliation: always a member of the opposition party, so as to be able to run when an incumbent leaves office.)

"John McCain in 2000 causes Donald Trump in 2012" is, naturally, a hilarious notion in itself. John McCain would hate it. So would John Reilly, I imagine. But he wouldn't have been surprised...

Do you think that there's a road from Al Gore in 2000 to Donald Trump in whatever later year?
 
Do you think that there's a road from Al Gore in 2000 to Donald Trump in whatever later year?
Obviously. The causes of the 2008 crisis far precede the 2000 election (the deepest roots go back to 1933, or even 1913, if you really want to get system-technical). Even the Carter-era perverse incentives for mortgages, the Reagan-era deregulation-without-also-privatising-risks and the Clinton-era further deregulation "because ideology is dead" precede the 2000 election. A big crash was coming, the bubble had been blowing up more and more for decades, and the result would be massive social discontent. Politically, that translates to a populist surge.

All Trump had to do was wait for the day.
 
Obviously. The causes of the 2008 crisis far precede the 2000 election (the deepest roots go back to 1933, or even 1913, if you really want to get system-technical). Even the Carter-era perverse incentives for mortgages, the Reagan-era deregulation-without-also-privatising-risks and the Clinton-era further deregulation "because ideology is dead" precede the 2000 election. A big crash was coming, the bubble had been blowing up more and more for decades, and the result would be massive social discontent. Politically, that translates to a populist surge.

All Trump had to do was wait for the day.

So, basically, a Frankensteinian mishmash of public-private arrangements and regulatory, subsidy-heavy bloat that buoys the big banks and super rich, which is true to the larger status quo in America today?

In any case, I'm wondering what you think that means for future bubbles, though I suppose that's best reserved for a continuation of our pre-existing private conversations.
 
Obviously. The causes of the 2008 crisis far precede the 2000 election (the deepest roots go back to 1933, or even 1913, if you really want to get system-technical). Even the Carter-era perverse incentives for mortgages, the Reagan-era deregulation-without-also-privatising-risks and the Clinton-era further deregulation "because ideology is dead" precede the 2000 election. A big crash was coming, the bubble had been blowing up more and more for decades, and the result would be massive social discontent. Politically, that translates to a populist surge.

All Trump had to do was wait for the day.

Wasn't a part of the 2008 housing crisis also having to do with lending standards being relaxed for minorities in order to increase minority home ownership? Steve Sailer wrote about how this was done as a part of the George W. Bush's administration's attempts to appeal more to minorities.
 

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